What are the odds?

Yeah, it’s another bad beats thread.

This time, no complaining. Only fascination. This is not a place for whining, nor is it a place for review or analysis, other than to give the odds. We’re here to celebrate the getting there at long odds that makes for spectacular, dramatic poker.

I want to see other players’ similar hands. You say they happen all the time, well let’s see it. I want the comfort of knowing I’m not alone.

The idea for this thread is to show the odds at the critical decision point (eg, the point at which someone shoved, or a similar point in the hand where you were pretty sure you were ahead when you decided to act.)

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/770578737

Here, I’m playing AJo, and flop top pair, Jacks, on a pretty dry board, J42, two diamonds. I bet large, and my opponent shoves. I consider I am almost certainly beat – V clearly has two pair or a set, right?

I call anyway, I need to lose the chips. V pops up with TdTc, and I’m ahead of them. Then they run out two more diamonds for a J-high flush, and I double them up.

I’m 86% on the Flop, 75% on the Turn, 0% on the River.

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Haven’t you answered your own question? You’re going to lose here 1 out of every 7 times on average, which is not that rare. It’s about the same odds as hitting a set on the flop. If you get a few bad beats like that in a row and your set 12 times in a row, it’s going to feel like the odds are very different, but that’s just because people are very bad at intuitively understanding or predicting random events.
I do have plenty of bad beats I would love to vent about to though, but I don’t save those, so not sure how to find them? I do relive them quite often, so know the action and who I was against - is there any way to use that to search for hands here on replay?
A “biggest pots lost” tab under Hands would be good for this, but not necessarily for my sanity

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“What are the odds?” is the title of the thread. The idea of the thread is to post a hand where someone makes a spectacular comeback in an improbable way, and to provide the odds of this occurring. Or, if someone doesn’t know how to calculate it, then they can ask for help and someone on the forum might show how to figure it out.

This isn’t about venting or complaining, we are here to celebrate the impressive long odds hands that we have seen. You can be the winner or the loser of the pot.

I can even win one once in a while. 16% on the Turn. Overplayed my gut shot draw and sucked out to two pair to get out from under being outkicked on the river.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/771544012

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/772161733

35% on the flop, 32% on the Turn, 100% on the river.

back to back flopped flush
https://www.replaypoker.com/replay/771898468
https://www.replaypoker.com/replay/771898561/flush-ace-high
wonder if V thought “what are the odds?”

Two hands I didn’t save were my last two hands of the previous tournament. The first hand, I hit the flush, and got beat with a higher flush. The next hand, when I hit the flush, I definitely remember thinking “What are the odds?” and went all in. Someone had a higher flush, again. Can’t remember if one of them was a flopped flush, but wouldn’t be surprised.

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From Sunday’s WCOOP Super High Roller NLHE Event ($25K entry) - Have your opponent drawing to 1 out on the river and get eliminated. If this isn’t bad enough, he lost the chip lead a few minutes earlier with A3 on J33 flop when opponent hit a runner-runner flush.

Commentary from Poker News:

Mason “Pye_Face21” Pye was just eliminated In what might have been the craziest runout of the day.

Pye jammed for 251,309 from middle position. “EzzaEvz1991” three-bet jammed for 724,326 from one seat over and the rest of the table folded.

Mason “Pye_Face21” Pye: {a-Diamonds}{q-Diamonds}
“EzzaEvz1991”: {k-Spades}{k-Clubs}

Pye nailed two pair on the {a-Clubs}{j-Clubs}{q-Clubs} flop and had his opponent drawing to one out to a royal flush after improving to a full house on the {a-Spades} turn.

As fate would have it, the {10-Clubs} spiked the river to give “EzzaEvz1991” a royal flush and Pye was eliminated short of the money in a very brutal fashion.

Must be rigged :crazy_face:

ADDED: Video of the hand and how he handled it live:
Pye loses nasty pot with full house against royal flush in 25k… - Twitch

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Player to my left jams every time I open, and after four or five times, I decide I have a hand good enough to call.

AJs vs. A7s, and of course the flush is there for him on the Turn.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/773400393

65% preflop, and I wasn’t even slightly surprised. As soon as I saw he was suited I knew it would be a flush for him. Odds of suited hand filling flush by the river: 1 in 119. Nicely done.

Playing one of the diamond league games, earlier. I had just made it past the bubble,(paying entry, + 20K), but only had about 4 BB left. Getting dealt pocket sevens, I pushed and got called with A5.

the flop brought an A. (Oh well, fun while it lasted)

the turn brought another A (Geez, don’t have to be so mean, about it)

the river turned up a seven, giving me sevens full of aces against trip aces.

Of course, seeing that I was beat, and then had sucked out on the river, I looked for a way I could give it back, and restore the sanctity of poker, but turns out, I just had to live with it. What I did do was use this stroke of luck to get to 4th place, and an additional 250K to my net profit.

My point? I don’t think there’s anyone complaining about bad beats who hasn’t handed out a few of them, themselves. Myself included.

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I agree completely. I’ve been the victim of countless “bad beats,” and I’ve been the beneficiary of countless “bad beats.” Some of them quite spectacular!

I put “bad beats” in quotes because while I know they’re a thing, I don’t believe in them at all. A bad beat isn’t anything more than a loss, plain and simple. The last card counts just as much as the first card, period, and getting beat is just that - nothing “bad” or “good” about it. The last at bat counts, the last half court shot, the last hail mary, the last card - you play to the end and until that last move, and anything can happen.

There’s just no such thing to me. There’s just winning or losing; and how that came about (short of cheating) doesn’t really matter to me.

I’ve never understood wallowing/complaining in the “I should have won - that was a bad beat” camp. You (or I) didn’t win. Period. Next hand.

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Puggy - I don’t think you should feel too bad about this one - odds of flopping a flush with two suited cards are about 1 in 120 or so - but he didn’t do that - he flopped a flush draw and got it on the turn.

I found this - can’t attest to the accuracy - but here you go - given for holding two suited cards:

Odds of flopping a Flush draw with two suited cards – 10.9%

Odds of completing a Flush draw on the turn – 19.2%

Interesting stuff: Flush Poker Odds - Flush Poker Probability

Right, it’s about 120:1 either way. He jammed preflop, and got a flush. I had better suited Ace, dominated him, and still lost a stack. Just how it goes 70% of the time for me when I’m the 65% favorite.

Here’s some odds to calculate: (actually I don’t think there’s anyway to calculate these odds, but what happened to me was so weird I had to post it)

Over the the course of play today, I hit a set seven times. I lost seven times - but that’s not the weird part.

I lost all seven times - all seven times - to a flush. Four of them hitting on the river.

I’m putting this one in my “Book of Unofficial Records that Elvoid holds.”

I hate that book. :rofl:

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Obviously the most unlikely beat on the river is the one where opponent has only one specific card that will beat you. For example you have a boat vs their set, but they make quads on the river.

The most unlikely beats on the flop are when opponent needs two specific cards on the turn and river to beat you, for example turn is 6 of diamonds, river is 9 of diamonds, and villain holding 5 and 8 of diamons makes a straight flush to beat your Ace high flush.

At the flop the odds of him making that hand would be around 2500 to 1.

You see fluky hands all the time. I always remember one I won where it was AA vs AA and one of my aces made a flush. Opponent was a bit peeved.

I saw a hand the other day where 1 player had AA and the flop was AQQ, and opponent had KK. However the turn and river were both kings. Again 2500 to 1.

However, when you are actually playing poker, you do not really need to calculate the odds of each occurrence because you are matching probability with bet sizing and you have to deal with approximate odds. For example, opponent needs a spade on the river to complete a flush, and we know the odds are around one in 6, and perhaps if we have a blocker in that suit, then we know it is a bit less, but we cannot know how many cards in that suit were mucked by other players, so it is always rule-of-thumb probability that we are dealing with.

For practical purposes we usually have to assume that an opponent does not have a straight or Royal flush or quads, because the probability is so remote that we just accept that the hand is a cooler.

I’ve had that happen to me, not with AAAQQ, but a different flopped boat, losing to quad 66s, where the opponent had pocket 66s, and the board ran out 6-6 on the turn and river. V went from two pair to under-boat to quads on me. Another similar hand, I had AT, flopped AATTX, checked, got shoved on by KK, board runs out K-K for backdoor quads.

I do see it all the time. Mostly not in my favor.

here you all go
all 4 aces in play. 2 players holding 1 Ace, 2 Aces on board. all the 3’s in play too. lol
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/782839134

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Hi, whenever I see odds like this stated I reach for my calculator or even punch the hand into a poker odds tool.

Whenever a player needs runner runner, the worst it can be is about 1,000 to one. They have two cards and then one card to fill their draw. In this exact hand, they also have running queens to split the pot. Give them the chance to hit a Royal and they get another shot

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=as+qs+qd&d=&h=kh+kc ad+ac

Apologies if come across as picky, but some of the claims I see (100,000 to one!!! Never seen it before in 40 years of live poker !!) are way, way wide of the mark.

Rob

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Definition of gambling per Encyclopaedia Britanica
“ Gambling, the betting or staking of something of value , with consciousness of risk and hope of gain, on the outcome of a game, a contest, or an uncertain event whose result may be determined by chance or accident or have an unexpected result by reason of the bettor’s miscalculation.”

Yes, my mental arithmetic let me down there. If you need (for example) two black queens, there are two possibilities.

  1. Queen of clubs on the turn, then Queen of spades on the river.
  2. Queen of spades on the turn, then Queen of clubs on the river.

So that does half the odds, however for betting purposes it makes little difference.