Replay Poker Doesn't Use Real Odds

Can I get a confirmation that replay poker does not use real odds? Every single session I play, about 400 hands each time, i see the most ridiculous coolers happen. Set over set, flush over straight, full house over straight, quads over flush. The amount of bad beat jackpots(not even to me, I win like 50bb/100 hands on here) that would have been triggered in my games is unreal. Something like set over set is close to a 1/10,000 hands occurrence over the board. Does this change at the higher stakes. Is this just a way to engage people who don’t know how to play poker? Please don’t gaslight me.

1 Like

Hi JayyyB, :smiley:

At the time of this post there are 1,136 players seated playing games. If you assume one hand per minute that would be 68,160 hands per hour, 1,635,840 hands per day, and about 49,075,200 hands per month.

Given that actually the number of seated players varies minute to minute along with the length of each hand there is probably a huge variance in these numbers but for the sake of this exercise we will say that the number of seated players and hand length is static.

Let us say that you played 400 hands per day every day for the month of June, that would be 12,000 hands played.

12,000 is 0.024452219344558 percent of 49,075,200.

I am not sure you have sampled enough hands to draw any reasonable conclusions. I do not believe any single player can play enough hands to do so.

Bad beats happen all the time even to the best players in the world and any player will tell you streaks happen. Both good and bad. Unfortunately the bad always seem to last longer than the good but they do happen, Just keep playing and you will have a day (hopefully more than one (unless you happen to be playing against me :wink:)) where you can’t seem to loose. All your flushes hit, your pairs hold, straight after straight, and so on.

Maybe not what you want to hear, and not tryin’ to gaslight you, it just is what it is. Give it a year or so. Maybe I’ll see you at the tables sometime. :grinning:




I don’t think any of those hands would actually ever qualify for a bad beat jackpot. Normally you have to lose with aces full or better.

Replay posts the best hands for the last hour, so you could check to see if that’s out of line with the number of hands played - although you’ll have to estimate that. You can check your own best hands though against the exact the number of hands you’ve played though. (You can also see the best hands for other players - I often look at that to get an idea of how many hands someone has played - and I’ve never seen anything that looked out of the ordinary).

yeah, like to know when its my turn go on a hot streak

Thank you for the very professional reply to what must have sounded like the complaints of a flat-earther-lite.

Luckily I have not been the victim of any of the hands that would have been bbj, but also it wouldn’t have mattered. Only one of the best hands I’ve had are even in my biggest pots. My tighter play also means I’m usually the one coolering the mid-high strength hands.

I’m fairly apt at stats and I like using MATLAB in the background while playing, sometimes I’ll sit out for a while and go back and figure out the odds of certain things.

I actually did run some binomial tests on a set of a few hundred hands and got p-values in the range of .001. Combining that with the perceived increase in hand strength, due to the number of limping players seeing the flop, and the pace of play being much much faster compared to live, it really was starting to make me wonder if there was some kind of proportional system going on; that is, everyone gets better cards, at the same rate. Which, could be fine, but I would like to know.

Labs reputation seems good :grinning: , and that is exactly the response I was looking for <3

1 Like

I believe that individual players see such a small microcosmal percentage of hands dealt that what is just a tiny part of the normal random distribution of hands across the whole can seem anomalous to such a myopic view (my wasn’t that a mouthful :grinning:).

For example, for quite a while I noticed that a large percentage of the flops I witnessed contained a flopped community pair, way too many to be random. But then it stopped happening so much and after thinking about it for a while I realized what I told you previously, I just cannot see enough hands to tell if there is an anomaly or not. So I just went back to enjoying my time here and trying to do what little I can to help others do the same. Glad I could be of service. :smiley:


Repay flops way too many pairs.


This has been a great discussion. Anecdotally, I recall hearing that the smallest sample size one should use to begin evaluating one’s own play is 10,000 hands, as a lower bound. So I’m no statistician but maybe your sample is just orders of magnitude too small?

You cannot compare this site to money poker. There is no risk of real loss, and people with no bank have nothing to lose, they go back to start and refill. I track some, they go down eventually.

This is a very good point.
I’ve played against a few player who just go all-in every hand. I completely change my strategy for it, and only play decent hands. Annoying, but since they aren’t paying real money, there’s no real loss for them.
I usually only play for 30-60 minutes at a time. If I’m not doing too well, I often just go all-in with a semi-decent hand, then quit after losing (or regaining what I brought to the table). I would never do that with real money.

In terms of using real odds, I find Replay to be pretty accurate.
In fact, almost “too” accurate. What do I mean? Well, when I’ve played real games with real people, it is a human shuffling the cards. Each person has their way of shuffling, and this does not ensure a “true” shuffle. Hence some cards can appear a few times in a row. With Replay, this doesn’t happen, due to the RNG.

Hi Jay. There are statistical anomalies. If you flip a coin 1 Zillion times, it can come up the same side 1 billion times in row, which might seem impossible. If you do something long enough statistical anomalies, seeming absurdities happen.

There have been 999+ ZILLIONS, ZILLIONS, to big a number to try to calculate, figure out, etc, both online, offline, over time, that seeming countless players have played.

Somewhere out of all those players, hands, etc, is a player who has had their pocket Aces cracked all in preflop 100 times in row, etc, that is wrongfully screaming RIGGED, etc.

I myself, at Pokerstars, at the micro, to low stakes in the past got bad beat knocked out of 70 tournaments in row, 70 bad beats in row, knocked down from $250, after I built that $250 from $15, down to $6 before I gradually built it up to $1850.

Thats why good bankroll management, is so important, no matter how skilled, good a player is. For online tournaments, depending on skill, etc, need about 93 to 115 to 125 to 135 to 150 to 175 to 200 tournament buy ins, as if dont, there is a variance chance that can, will bust your playchip bankroll.

Now can always get more playchips, buy more playchips, but it can get frustrating to maybe have to constantly start over from scratch. Or buy more chips, etc, if dont have good bankroll management.

And here, tho I built the starting 20k bankroll to 219k, grinding, etc, so far, etc, In 1 tournament I got bad beat about 8 times, rebuyed 8 times, and got bad beat out of several tournaments in row.

Despite that, I still overcame that thru SKILL+ a little tiny bit of Variance + getting to the long term enough to build a 219k bankroll, cash about 30% of the time, etc.

Thats not to brag, but it shows that Skill wins over Variance, long term, and that variance balances out over the long term.

I know it can seem crazy, insane, the bad beats, etc, that happen, etc, but its those same bad beat streaks that keep the recs, regs, fish, donks, clowns, goof offs, in the game, for good players to profit from, off of.

If it was not that way, then all the recs, regs, fish, donks, clowns, goofs, would quit permanently leaving only sharks, pros to play against, causing a player to be break even to just barely a winning player at best.

That said, just try to play your best, have fun, and let the chips fall where they may.

Hope that helps you.

The following is my version of Neil deGrasse Tyson’s “coin flip” thought experiment:

Get together 1000 people, have them all flip a coin and everyone who gets tails is out. Repeat until there is one person left. That person has continuously flipped heads about 10 times in a row (100%).

Now do that experiment 1000 times. Every single time the experiment was done (100% of the time), somebody will have flipped heads about 10 times in a row (100%).

If you use the same group of people each time, it will probably happen to some more than once and there will probably be one or more who get tails every time. The point being that it may or may not happen to any one individual (you), but it WILL happen to someone 100% of the time.

Think about this in terms of bad beats or miracle rivers or donkey plays that pan out. You might just be the guy who got tails 10 times in a row 1000 times in a row. That does not mean anyone is cheating or anything is rigged or that it will happen the next time you play. That is the nature of statistics and odds, there are always outliers and always someone who beats the odds.

Cheers! :smiley:

Some days you end you on the short end of the luck stick. For every river card we catch we dont go on about how the game is rigged or the odds aren’t real, but when we are on the other end OMG get your popcorn ready!!!


The other day I lost two different tournaments, due to quad 4s on the river (once holding Ks full of queen). Was I pissed? of course, and I got over it the next game. Poker is a game have fun with it and laugh at it when it goes south.

1 Like