Why or why not? (I’m referring the river line)
First, I’m not a “poker pro” so I probably don’t know what I’m talking about.
Second, great call!
Third, No, I probably would have folded.
His raise, post flop, indicates to me that he has a queen, 10, or a flush draw; I would assume a queen.
His raise, post turn, strengthens my believe that either he is holding a queen or a 10.
His all-in post river seems to indicate either a queen, 10, or a bluff on the missed flush.
Trip 10’s scares me, and a queen scares me because of my middle kicker, so thus…I fold.
Sorry…no GTO discussion here…just how I would approach the hand.
nah man your analysis is spot on. I did not had any info other than intuition and basic ranges.
and thank you it was a pretty wild play from my part.
Really you had Q so when opponent did raise you had plenty of chips to make a comeback if he indeed had tripes. I would have called,
Against most players I raise/fold postflop depending on what I expect them to be donk betting with. I think it was Chris Ferguson who said something like “flat calling is usually the worst option” and I believe that’s applicable here.
But not 3betting with AK from the SB then leading full pot postflop after missing nonsensical. I snap call his river bet if I had noticed him taking equally absurd lines previously. But I wouldn’t even be in this spot because I would have raised either the flop or turn
Against a total unknown you have to randomize your decision given the potential logical bluffs available, so calling is OK sometimes and so is folding.
Yes, the key on Replay Poker is to know your opponents.
For example tonight on a final table I was up against a well-known opponent who had a huge stack. This particular opponent likes to bluff or continuation bet on every single hand and when he gets a large stack he can be a menace.
Knowing this, I was able to gradually dismantle his stack, and he went out in fourth place.
On one hand, I raised from the button with Jack 8 and he called as usual from the small blind.
Flop came with a queen and a nine, and my opponent bet and I called since this looks like his routine donk bet. (At this stage the blinds were about 1500 BB, so you weren’t seeing many pot size bets.)
This is where it got interesting. On the turn a Ten came down giving me the nut straight with no flush drawing in sight. He bet again with a pot-size bet. I raised him to double the bet, and he re-raised me again! This time I re-raised all in, and he folded, losing half his stack.
It can be really tough to play against an opponent who is this aggressive, but on this occasion I clearly had the nuts and the only danger was a split pot.
There are very few players on replay poker who play in this manner, but once you have identified that a player is capable of this move, then you know in the future that he might do it again.
If you know that a player is likely to bluff on every single river, then you are much more likely to call with hand that is very far from the nuts.
Often you will be able to identify the bluff on the river by the size of the bet. For example the player will always bet half the pot on his river bluffs, so if he gets called he is not stacked.
Other players will bet their whole stack on a river bluff, but there are relatively few players who do this. A lot of players on replay poker will bet their whole stack when they make a flush or boat on the river, and thus fail to get paid on the river, because they scare off an opponent.
When it comes to calling bluffs, the stage of the tournament and your stack size is important. You may be pretty sure that an opponent is bluffing on the river, but still fold if losing that bet would leave you in a weak tournament position. Sometimes it is better to pick another spot.
Interesting one. Anything could’ve happened. He could’ve had pocket threes or deuces. I wouldn’t have played with queen/nine suited, which shows you how often I fold, but especially out of position. If I play at all out of position, it has to be something I’m very happy with and I would bet pot at least. Queen/nine suited doesn’t cut it. But anyway, if I didn’t fold, I probably would’ve called all the way to river and maybe given up after the sound of the shove. Most of the time I’m going to lose there, either to top pair/better kicker, trip tens or pocket threes. It’s not a situation I ever find myself in, so it’s pretty loose play. The other guy is obviously very loose - betting with nothing - and I’m guessing punisher picked up on his loose play, so on that basis it’s a very good call.
pretty good assessment … however opponent went from half pot feeler/donk bet to full pot turn bet when the 10 paired … one shouldn’t want to chase away customers if you have trips so that makes me discount trip 10s and if one has a Q … the turn 10 should slow one down enough to leave room for the possibility hero has a 10 …leave room to fold … so that discounts chance of Q … i had the guy on a flush draw all the way … but they just had overcards and a diamond blocker … good call … btw generally 3 bet an AK OOP pf … it’s hard to play that hand OOP when you don’t hit the flop… donk bet is when u r not the pf raiser but you lead out on the flop