The fairness debate

I like to see that hands.

If you make sit a monkey front of the tipewriter, If you do that infinite number, one of the monkey will write The Complete Works of William Shakespeare.

here is the first 4 of a kind

very next they hit another 4 of a kind

I counted 12 hands later they hit a 3rd 4 of a kind

still way to many in a short amount of hands

Your story checks out, but that doesn’t mean that there is anything wrong with Replay. So yes, it was very unlikely for THIS PERSON to get THOSE HANDS at THAT TIME but things like that are bound to happen to some people- if they didn’t then that would be manipulation of the site. So in this instance, the chances of getting three four of a kinds in 14 hands is something like 1/100,000 (by my very rough calculations). This means that you will see it about 1/15,000 hands. This is actually not that unlikely and it does not mean by any stretch that the site is rigged or anything. Also, there are a load of things that you might consider ‘way too unrealistic,’ such as two royal flushes in one session, someone hitting runner runner quads as their only way to win, or something like that, which means that you will see strange things from time to time. They just happen. To really prove that the site is rigged for some reason, you would have to sample millions of hands and work stuff out using hard evidence. It seems like a very long winded way for Replay to make money :stuck_out_tongue: .

I thought we speak about Texas holdem.
Anyway, if some dont know
TH 4100 to 1 for a 4 of a kind
Omaha 1200 to 1 for the same.

Go figure. Such an event not on the daily base. Actually, if not happen, then would be suspicious. Not going to the wall becouse of this 3…

I think people cunfused about odds and real odds. With random, you just cant even up things, its not like if you play 4100 hand the next must be a 4 of a kind. Or oposit.

Still interested see that 5 four of a kind in TH, then that RP could look and may tell how many time that accoured from what number of total.

“today this site proved to me something when the same player in the 20k mtt hi/lo got 4of kind 3 times in 5 hands someone figure those odds for me not to random if you ask me”

honestly though I have played enough hands, I have seen enough hands, to form my own conclusion of the cards/ hands being hit, and I am leaving it at that. if I say what I really want to it just get me in trouble, and its the reason I don’t play much anymore.

You right, it is omaha. My apologies. I missed that one.

But, then, it is more odds again to get that. I dont know if RP have a stat for filter out anything like that. @MrReplay ?
As you probably know, RP prepare something about more transparent RNG, maybe this is it. If they show the stats, like they dealt such ammount and such hands in such a time frame and got hands like such and such.
Still await for that 5 hand @cigarb.

the hands I showed you are the ones cigarb was talking about. they didn’t happen like he said they did, but non the less the player did hit (3) 4 of a kinds in a very short amount of hands. player hit back to back 4 of a kinds, then 12 hands later or something like that player hit the (3rd) 4 of a kind.

TH is more like 550/1 for four of a kind using all 7 cards… :stuck_out_tongue:

I highly doubt that.
Say you got a pair, the odds 0.84% get 4 of a kind. That you need 119 pair in hand.
I dont think you get a pair every 4th hand.
Get a pocket pair 3.2% , that you need 31.3 hand to one
That 119 X 31.3 , that 3725 hand to one 4 of a kind.

As the numbers rounded up to the closest, its a bit off, but I do belive Wikis 4100 number, That 3725 for TH with 9 seated table.


@flyinghigh111 You made some very intresting comments in the past days. Conversation , truth, Im open to. So, dont take it as a challenge, but a friendy request , please show me where you get your numbers from.

That article confirms my point :D. At the top, it says ‘frequency of five card poker hands.’ So this would be the chance of flopping the hand. As you can see, it says that a 4oak happens once in every 4.1K hands, a flush happens every 500 hands, and a straight every 250 or so. Those are the probabilities for 5 card poker hands. If you scroll down on the article, you will see that it lists the probabilities for seven card poker hands, with 4oak occurring once every 600 or so hands, a flush every 32, and a str8 every 20. Those are the probabilities by the time you get to the river.

You just value owned yourself :wink:


I check it l8er. I lean to what you say tho. I may misstranslated, I thought 5 card as 2 from hand and 3 from communal cards. I have to check the odds calculator too, I dont know why came up with very similar number. May made a misstake there too.

Still is TH tho, and make the probability higher, even so more higher in omaha from 9 card. Still not find a proper odds calculator for omaha.
As you see @cigarb never came back to confirm his claim about 5 in short time ( even so if only just 3 as trav mentioned.)

Would be nice if these kind of people come back and show the proof or admit they misstake.

to answer our poker expert Marcipan i admit that i made a mistake on the number of hands between 4 of kind #2 and #3 i thank the others for there response

I still agree with you the that he hit way to many in a short amount of hands

I did re-read the first part couple times, its missleading a bit, but the second part “Frequency of 7-card poker hands” made it clear with “a player uses the best five-card poker hand out of seven cards” .
So you was right, it states 594 : 1

@cigarb clearly, 5 out of 9 is higher odds , I can see some hands can be frustrating, but if you think about it, say if such an even not acoured in the certain time frame, aka the odds not add up for a such event, then would be suspicious.
Not need to be expert to know, one such an event wont determine randomness.

I can see, if such an event accoure in the 1-2 week in the same time as the RNG test they did, then probably would fail. If the RNG test would extrame long, say one year, such an event would fit in and test would came back OK.

The only way to determine is filter out such an events, count them and check the odds.

I only would start to worry if the cards predicted by some people( or softwear). If not, then it is random as it can be and RP RNG did the job just perfectly.

What’s that marcipan?

Can RP make stats of the high unlikly events? Say how many flush in how many hands?
I know its probably hard to do, as you cant count the folded hands.

I think of some kind of comparsion between “real life hands” and mathematical odds.
I know it lots of data, , could be only one tipe of hand, say the 4 of a kind, it would be nice to see if played hands 594000 to 1000 four of a kind ?
Sorry I drag you here

Ah right, yeah that’s exactly what we’re planning to do. Greatly expand player statistics whilst making aggregate statistics available. I know I keep saying it, but it’s on the roadmap, we’re just working on the big move to the cloud to support our further growth, when that’s out the way we can start thinking about stats and other features that get frequently requested here and via the support channels.

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Let me introduce myself, I am the stupidest guy on earth. Why? Because i am coming back to this site even though ive took some incredible beats. And when i say incredible i mean at the times when i have like 98% chance of winning the hand. 5 minutes ago i was in a tournament, almost making it to the final table, i was second best at my table and got involved in a hand with the chip leader. So the flop comes up and i hit my low pair and i know that my opponent is drawing dead so i raised. He reraised me, intending to bully me with his bigger stack, so i call his bluff and i go all in.He, did the stupidest thing possible, he called with Jd 7c and i had As and 6d. The board was 6s 2h and 9s. I had almost 80% chance off winning.So what happens he hits his 7.And thats it, ive lost because i was better? And thats not the first time something like that happens. Ive lost when i had AA preflop to a person holdin 3 and 4 offsuit. Now i know that thing like that happen in the real world. But hell ive lost with the better hand soooo many times. My conclusion is that replay poker awards recklessness and stupidity over common sense and good plays. This site is promoting poker as a wheel of fortune. I know that that is interesting to new players cause they can hit 4 of a kinds and other crazy hands but it is sending a wrong picture to the world and it also has a bad influence on poker community cause its promoting poker players as gamblers. My guess is that somewhere in the code of this site they wrote that everyone wins an equal number of hands in some time period, and no matter what cards you hold and what is the flop, if you are predetermined to win you are going to get the best hand on the river even if you had <1% of winning on the flop. I hope to get a reply from administrator. I will be logging in to the site just to see the reply. But im not playing anymore.

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Link it to the fairness debate. Nobody wants people like you spamming the forums with petty evidence that the site is ‘rigged’ as a complex way for them to scrape a few extra cents. I’ve played for a long time on this site (I had an older account that got deleted when I realised you weren’t allowed two accounts) and I’ve seen some crazy stuff. I’ve hit one outers, people have hit one outers against me, and I’ve even had str8 flush over str8 flush. But none of these things in any way suggest that the site is rigged. Poker on all sites and in casinos have the same situations, and to be honest, I often find that the people who argue that the site is rigged (even with it’s PRNG certificate) have very little knowledge of the game and how to play, and then they blame their losses on the site being rigged. I’ve even proven that situations that these people have claimed to have happened have never actually occurred to them.
Anyway, link this to the fairness debate. You might get some member of staff to say what I’ve just said, but you will never actually achieve anything by making these accusations.

I have played thousands of hands where I have seen crazy things happen. I think when one plays so many hands one remembers the one in a hundred that is crazy and forgets the 99 that are normal. So I have won and lost one outers, I have won and lost hads by hitting runner runner where the chance of hitting those cards was less than 1 percent. So I just think when you play so many hands that crazy things happen once in a while and you remember all of the crazy hands and forget most of the normal ones.