Bad information

It has come to my attention that a large percentage of the ReplayPoker Community thinks that AA (Pocket Aces) has a 12% win rate. This is incorrect!

I am going to try and explain why this is incorrect: Lets say i am dealt aces and i move all in, my opponent has a much larger stack than i do calls my all-in in the dark (without looking at his hand). Against any random hand the aces have roughly an 85% chance of winning. Why? Because lets say the opponent has Q7 offsuit which is the average hand, my opponent will need to get two pair or better to win. So you are telling me that my opponent with Q7 offsuit will get two pair or better 88% of the time? Even without doing all the math that just sounds wrong.

If aces only had a 12% win rate that would make them worse off than 72 offsuit which has a 34% win rate against any random hand. So why would anyone play aces if it is worse off than the “worst hand” in the game?

I wont ask for hard evidence as Im sure you cant come up ANY info support the above.

Look , I CAN.

Im sure you noted 2 X King left at the dealer , this case, preflop , thet KK have 19% to win !

he he Mr.12%

Yes, but you are still stating a false statement marcipa, yes aces do have 12% equity in that specific situation, but marcipa have you every played a hand where 9 other player called your all-in with aces with those exact hands? The 12% only applies to that situation not all, so it is incorrect to state “pocket aces got aprox 12% win rate preflop”.

In this image i have included many examples (including the one above as a constant) of aces vs a range of hands

my comment is below, and yes i did come up with supporting info.

Funny, you just prove me,

pot 5

( 10 player) AA 11.9 %

pot 6 ( two player) AA 85%

( please make a note of ( TWO PLAYER)

You look it from wrong perspective. I never said 9 pp all in, I said : preflop 10 seated room 12% odds you win.

its all change after flop, turn , river. ofc. IF no callers, eventually became not only 85% but 100% . :slight_smile:

Why you think in the 10 seated room you should go all in preflop anyway?

Where you learn thet?

somebody needs to get all new moderators for this site…there a bunch of sad souls that take there friends sides on all matters…they reaaly need to get a life…( especially happiness)

I dont think everyone should go all in, but that is what pot 5 and your example are testing, if all of those hands go all in that is how often they will win.

Those examples are not a fair test because there are 2 kings left in the deck and only 1 ace If you change lets say player 7 4s2h to lets say Ks2h so that the two pocket pairs have the same amount of cards in play look how the percents change.

I have also added an example of ten random hands.

And? You still just prove me. this random hand shows 18%

This is the best you can came up? What you try to say ? Its not even close to 85% .

Lots of other factor when you play poker.

The most important, playchips players call more often , so , your odds, gets more worst then real life/ real money games. RP or any playchips site, cannot adjust thet . Would be not fair.

The random hand shows 34% not 18%. Against a single player who calls you (which can be in a 10 player game) it is 85%. I am trying to say that the 12% is in no way correct. I would just like to go on record i have never been in a hand were ten people called an all-in, either here or on lock poker. I also have to disagree with the fact that your odds get worse, because players are more likely to call you with hands like AQo which are completely dominated by AA which is a 93% favorite so i really think that your odds improve slightly on playchip sites. Good* players in real money games will rarely call and all-in in a 10 player cash game with hands like AQ and below, in those games you are looking to be called only by hands like AK, JJ+.

Against a single player who calls you (which can be in a 10 player game) it is 85%. Thets correct.


(The 34 is 31) and average , including AA against JJ, KK, QQ,1010,99,88,77,66,55,44 Hands, but also including AA against 72,73,74,75,76,93,83,92,82 just for example. so thet 31% not stand in “real” play.

I dont quite understand the point of your last comment but i ran all of those. Sorry yes 31 my bad.

was worst and best scenario .( the second you change one to ten-ten)

Well. close to it. Anyway, I dont understand why you say 85% when clearly you know its only one single case … the heads up. For me your initial post not make sense at all , because you keep post this odds ( What is right, actually) but in a same, you still stick with to your first post.

II. Anyway, I dont think this conversation bring any new to this world. So I abandon it.

On the moderation side, cant mark this thread anything, not even “Not a Problem”, as may some misunderstand.

because aces win 85% of the time against any given hand

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