The chances of you winning with pocket aces preflop is not 12% it is about 85%, in the case of kings you have about a 90.6% chance of winning. This person Marcipan is so wrong
The chances of you winning with pocket aces preflop is not 12% it is about 85%, in the case of kings you have about a 81.9% chance of winning with aces. This person Marcipan is so wrong
I meant when play against 9 people. AA 12% in 10 seat room table Added the FACT playchips player call much more with low hand.
AA in 10 seated room 30.87% only! But the other hand not filled up!
Let me quote Paul here to:
AA against a random hand might be a 65 % favorite, against 2 hands, a 60 % favorite against 3 hands about 50 % and so on. The more hands drawing against you and the longer they stay in the hand, the more likely the best hand will lose.
Let me show you this poker odds calculator, please play with it. You will find out we right.
Poker Odds Calculator - Calculate Odds for Texas Holdem | PokerNews
So, Rivermango, the 85% its just outrageously wrong! Im no wonder now why people complainingā¦ they got it all wrong.
Happy now?
Thatās pokerā¦ the only thing you can do about bad beats is raise higher and hope the other player doesnāt call on a draw. Itās free money thoughā¦ so the chances of people calling on draws is higher. This is why I play tournaments because most people will treat the chips more realistically(as they donāt want to be eliminated).
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Thereās something called negativity bias. We are evolved to remember bad/painful events than we are happy ones.
This site like all other pay sites,the more money you pay into the site the higher your chances of winning percentage hands, please make a liar of me, making the game more fair for all. Thankyou.
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The problems are that the game is free and therefore people play silly. Just left the table and two of the people played EVERY, hand, raised big amounts and most time had nothing. I miss the real money games I used to play at Pacific Pokerā¦
May be this is pure psychology but I somehow get the feeling that when one tries to go all in with a JJ there is somehow always a QQ, and for a KK there is always an AA and so on. Pairs seem to come hand in hand, which on an intuitive basis is very improbable. But exactly how improbable? I could not easily set up an exact formula to establish this but why bother when you can run a simulation?
So I put together a little script which does this. It makes one hundred thousand deals at a table of 9 players and measures how many pairs are dealt in each turn.
These are my results:
Number of pairs in 100000 deals at a table of 9 players:
0 : 58180
1 : 32171
2 : 8280
3 : 1230
4 : 134
5 : 4
6 : 1
7 : 0
8 : 0
9 : 0
one pair: 32171
two or more pairs: 9649
probability of two or more if there is at least one: 23.07 %
So the probability of someone else having a pair when you have one of your own is in fact low: the odds are between 1 : 4 and 1 : 5.
This reply was created from a merged topic originally titled Pairs come hand in hand?.
I had the winning hand on the turn at least a dozen times today and lost on river to lucky longshot draws every time. WHAT A CROCK!
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The same has happened to me, the other hard to believe probability is i sat through 12 hands without a pair showing in my hand, or any of the table cards pair with what i had in my hand?
I recently received this message from a player (Iāll keep their identity private unless they wish me to reveal it):
Early this morning I was playing on Miami Beach 2 for hours. It was a very strange game in more ways than one. I find it strange that for about 2hrs of play I only got pocket pairs a few times. I remember a pr of 8's and 5's. I thought maybe this could be checked out. I can tell you one of the hands numbers is XXXXXXXXX. I'm only sending you this message because I can see why the players think something is wrong. I can truly say in all my years of playing that has never happened. Thank you
And here was my reply:
Okay, so I looked into this for you. You can see all the hands for that session on Miami Beach here: http://www.replaypoker.com/activitySo I went through and counted 4 pocket pairs in 153 hands.
Now the odds of getting pocket pairs in texas holdem are 5.9%, see: Pocket Pairs Odds Chart
That means that on average you should get about 9 pocket pair cards if you deal 153 hands.
So I wanted to find out whatās the probability of getting 4 or even less pocket pairs if you deal 153 hands. To answer this, I needed the help of a binomial calculator, see: Binomial Distribution Probability Calculator
Here you can plug in the values in the first 3 columns: 0.059 (% of the outcome eg. 5.9%) 153 (number of trials) 4 (number of successes)
This tells us then that the probability of getting 4 pocket pairs or less in 153 dealt hands is: 0.0491369944307761 (4.9%)
When you think about it, thatās not so low odds. Itās almost the same as the odds of getting dealt a pocket pair in the first place. If you think there are 20 players all playing 153 hands of poker, then 1 of those players is likely to have 4 or less pocket pairs and this time round that happened to be you.
I think the statistic we really are more interested in is the overall aggregate % across all tables every day, every week, every month and Iām confident that will confirm that our numbers are good - thatās exactly the sort of tests that were turn when we got our RNG certified. But we plan to show the aggregate figures daily for all to see.
I hope that makes you feel somewhat better, any more questions just give me a shout!
I wanted to post this so that players can keep in mind that having runs in which something happens far less frequently or far more frequently is perfectly normal. If it wasnāt then weād all be millionaires just by using a martingale strategy playing roulette in the casinos (Martingale (betting system) - Wikipedia). Poker is all about probability and these runs are all part of the game we love so much.
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But whatās the air speed velocity of a laden swallow. (African or European)
The good news is the dealer has others to dislike and not just me.
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you will have a hard time making me believe the games are not rigged. I just played in a tournament with some high stake players and watched one go all in 3 times in 5 hands and win. The problem is he/she started with nothing (5/9 or worse) and drew to a straight all three times, one even before the flop. Come onā¦no one is that lucky.
I have been with this site for almost 2 years. I really doubt if I see another year if this keeps up.
This reply was created from a merged topic originally titled games rigged (yes or no).
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Iāve merged your topic into an existing one. I suggest you read through it as itās difficult for me to add too much to it. I realize we need to do more to not just say weāre fair but to demonstrate it, an independent audit isnāt enough for many playersā¦ so weāll be thinking of ways to really convince players that still have their doubts. Iām confident we can figure something out!
I donāt know about that, but twice today this program has stated that I folded. When in FACT i did not. Care to comment on this employee 3?
No one should be upset at others for voicing their opinions. I for one do not believe this site is not biased. I have played in a lot of tourneys, lately and seen Pocket aces get beat by 74, 63, 62, hands that would be folded in real games. But since this site appears to program those type of hands to win, people are staying in with them and beating real hands. It is for free and for fun, however, people who play would like for it to mirror real life and not so much magic. Russ
I have played this site for a year, and have played on poker websites for cash, for several years and they are all the same. If you have cash on the line you play different than if you are playing for {fun} . If you look at the odds on winning a hand , the odds change the more players you have. Most of the large hands you see won , you will have one or more callers losing that should not be in the pot. The more important statistic to look at is hands won on hands played. This site is a great sit to practice your game, if you want to play with concentration and pay attention to the other players , you can improve your game. I believe this is a random fair site, I see no reason they would single out some players to win, and some to lose? Thank you Paul for this site and for the opportunity to play and laugh at some of the players, and at myself when I can not resist making a play that I know is dumb and I know I would not make if it were a cash game. I get hours a week of enjoyment from your site. Thank You Ironstrawwoo
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Well stated and accurate up to a point, I know that in real cash games, folded hands would win 40% of the time if they had gone to the river. That also means they would lose 60% of the time. I have only been playing here since April 13, but it seems a that a lot of people play hands that should be folded and win with them. It seems to me that it is a lot more than 40%. I have not kept track, but have started thinking what is coming to make those small straights win and more times than should it hits. I am not pchyic (sp) so I should not be able to do that if it was totally random. Still enjoy playing but would like a more realistic game.
I think I touched off this specific complaint thread a few years ago and Iām still getting e-mails when others post comments here. Do about 5 minutes of research and youāll see there is NO SUCH THING AS A āRANDOMā NUMBER GENERATOR. Computers are machines and can only do what they are programmed to do. It is true that people play free poker (online poker) more haphazardly than sitting at a real game. However, if you will notice when you raise the table pre-flop, out of all the players who fold, the one who makes a bad call (even if you raise significantly) beats you even more than 50% of the time. You make a big raise with KK everybody folds except that one guy and you see he has 2 and 8 off suit. He catches 3 of a kind, a straight, flush or full house. They other players who folded, folded losing hands. The guy didnāt know his lousy hand was a true winner. It wasnātā¦until he made the call and the ārandomā dealer evened the hand out for him.
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