HELP! Is this just spew or higher variance +EV

Poker Strategy
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City of Dreams 3 (6 max… we are 5 handed)
100K/200K
Hero is effective stack with 28.6M

To be clear I already know this is spew for my shot taking bank roll situation. Is it long term profitable though? Lets do some range work.

V is 2 off the button(otb) covers the table limps 200K, H 1otb with Qs3s limps 200K, BTN folds, SB folds, BB x’s option. 3 to the flop.

Flop (700K) As 5c 4s… BB x, V 562K, H raise 1.6M, BB folds, V tank 3! to 5.5M, Hero?.. I 4! to 15.5M, V 5! shoves for my last 13M, I call.

V is a top 10 player on Replay, not just his rank, he has skills.

  1. What do we think his limp 1otb range looks like?
  2. Should I have an over limp range in this spot and if so should Qs3s be in it?
  3. What hands do we think V is leading with on this flop?
  4. V 3! range… where’s the value, where’s the bluffs
  5. Is this a profitable 4! vs V’s range, should I just be shoving all in when I do 4! to max FE?
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This is a general idea of a limp-over range in a meh-game. Go tighter vs stronger players and loosen up vs weaker ones. Wider the closer you get to the BTN and tighter the farther away. Tighter if there is an active player after you who may squeeze … Your description of V indicates that your limp-over range should be stronger than this. Q3s isn’t in any suggested range I’ve seen and I wouldn’t limp behind with it except maybe in the SB if table is totally weak/passive.

limp_behind_range

As an FYI, many of the hands I’d suggest 3-betting with are in the limp behind range here because the range is adjusted for loose play where you aren’t going to get HU or 3-way as often as you’d like. Same idea as discussed in the JTs hand you raised from the BB and went to the flop 6-ways.

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I’m going to have to look at this later when I’m stationary and have a second. Work is crushing me right now, but as Dave Ramsey so often likes to point out… “work equals money”. First impression though is that this a ton of hands to be over limping. This player is competent, as is the player on the BTN. I do agree that over limping Q3 suited is a pretty big leak. I also think the UTG limper is limping a pretty weak unbalanced range. I don’t have a ton of history but some. For that reason along with both blinds being pretty fishy and the reason I sat in for a shot take in the first place I should be opening here.

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Thanks for posting mate!

First of all, difficult for me/us to be talking about V’s range here, no idea how he plays, we got no description.
As to yours, Q3s is definitely a fold. Like Warlock says, play tight against strong players and play loose against weaker ones. Stick to your ranges anyway, go look at Doug Polk’s latest videos : don’t play like these high-stakes donks who seem to have forgotten their pre-flop ranges.

I like Warlock’s over-limp range, although I think you could remove some hands like AJo, ATs, …

Totally correct ! This table is not such a loose table I think, with this stake level and with these opponents. You should definitely be thinking about raising on this table and not over-limping, although you could over-limp with some hands in a decent spot, like some low SC.
Let’s get to the actual hand…

Flop : pretty nice. V bets BIG here, he’s interested. What could he have ? Difficult to say, we need more info, but something like 45s, 35s, 34s, does he raise 44, 55 ?, can he limp some Ax’s, unsuited or suited like A4/A5 ? 23s.
What about the FD’s ? KsXs, 6s7s, 7s8s, 5s6s, maybe I forgot something… There’s a lot.

Anyway, in this spot I limp, even though your range would look pretty capped. What are you repping by raising here against such a big bet ? 44, 55 ? 45s, A4, A5 ? Big draws, with the KsXs and QsXs. Not much more, there are some bluffs and value hands.
I don’t think that you’re losing some kind of equity by only limping here, even though you got like 12 outs for the straight or flush.

When he 3-bets here, IDK. 44, 55 he wouldn’t just call, the simple FD’s he just gonna call I think. Mainly gonna be 3! these sort of hands : " 6s7s, 7s8s, 5s6s" + “45s, 35s, 34s” I think ? Same question : does he have A4/A5 for example ? He would be 3! these too.

Now what do you do ? Like you suggest, I prefer jamming here. It would be 5x the amount of his 3-bet, and it makes much more sense for you to try to get these hands that are in front like A4 for example or 5s6s to get them to fold their equity. It would put him in a difficult spot with certain hands.

So all in all, I don’t think that this was a profitable 4!, even though it’s difficult to say, you should define his range for us (please :slight_smile: ) !

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I agree. I could do without A9o, KTo and QTo easily (36 combos). I might add in T7s, 9/6s and 8/5s (12 combos) for their better implied odds.

This range is from Upswing Poker, not one of my own making. IMO, the limp-over ranges should be incredibly flexible IF you have player/table specific knowledge. This is very exploitative play so the more you can tailor your ranges to the specific players you are facing, the better. Without any reads and just sitting down at a table, you have to rely on population data. I think this suggested range was developed with a typical live 1/2 game in mind.

Back to the hand later, when I have a bit more time.

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If it’s an indirect reply to me, I meant to say the one you gave us from UP :slight_smile: !

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Time? Where do you get that, I should go pick some up.

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Nobody answering ? :confused:

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I’ll get around to it, I am just insanely busy right now.

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No worries, wasn’t saying it to you personally but in general haha ! Where are the Hand Analysis guys ?

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I’m not a hand analysis guy, but I’ll take a shot at it…

  1. What do we think his limp 1otb range looks like?

Without knowing more, I would think he is limping 40% or 50% of his hands here. He is probably confident in his post-flop play and might rely on his “rank image” to win a lot of pots. Also, the stakes probably are fairly meaningless to him. He might also limp the top of his range now and then with 3 people left to act when playing 5 handed.

  1. Should I have an over limp range in this spot and if so should Qs3s be in it?

Sure, you should have one. Q3s probably shouldn’t be in it though. If you make a flush and get action, there’s a good chance you’re beat, and there just aren’t enough ways to win with this hand.

  1. What hands do we think V is leading with on this flop?

Almost his entire range. Because, why not?

  1. V 3! range… where’s the value, where’s the bluffs.

Value: any ace, especially with a straight or backdoor flush draw. Any 2 pair or set, any made straight. Pairs with a straight draw. If he thinks you would open most of your aces there, any pair.

Semi-bluffs: any decent flush draw, most straight draws.

Bluffs: everything else.

  1. Is this a profitable 4! vs V’s range, should I just be shoving all in when I do 4! to max FE?

I would shove or call. I don’t think you can fold. If you are willing to call a 5!, you might as well shove and pick up the FE. The 5!, as played, would look like a straight or set to me, so I’m not loving it but would have to call.

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These are tough observations to reconcile. From what I’ve seen, there are 2 players in the top ranks that play nearly identical poker that could fit this description. Only 1 is male. Neither are overly familiar with folding and will limp/call absolute garbage preflop. Neither have balanced bluffing frequencies - its almost all value. 1 shoves more TP and flush-draws on the flop than the other (not this one).

Because of the shortage of time and the nature of this hand, I’ll just address the question posed in the thread title: Its just spew. The limp behind was a mistake. Raising the flop isn’t wonderful but has merit. However, once he 3-bet you, you are 100% done with the hand. Cut your losses and get to the next hand. That 3-bet from this player has you crushed. I don’t think he’s even 3-betting top 2 pair here so he has a set or he managed to limp 3/2 and flopped the straight.

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I wouldn’t be too surprised if V has AAA there. 23 for the straight seems unlikely, but possible.

I agree that his 3! and 5! are almost never bluffs.

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I’ve got the same idea as you, pre-flop and flop.
Could we call the 3-bet though, do we have enough equity ? 3! bluffs are possible, but they are rare with the hand we have, especially if you’re playing a loose aggro for example. 5! bluffs are rare though, but I can understand in some way that you called and said “Argh, f@#k it, let’s take a turn… and a river”.

Limp AA 6-handed ? Hmm, a new strategy or something ?
Well yeah, everything is likely, no idea. We should put this hand in the “Off topic” section.

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Yes, at least sometimes. Dayman is pretty aggro, V could have been looking for a raise, then BAM, lower the boom.

Why not let the table know that big pairs can be in your limp range?

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No. Even if we throw some Kx flush draws into his 3-bet range, we are behind all of them. The only bluff hand we’re ahead of is 7/6. Even if we could find some way to make our equity worthwhile, why take a high variance spot drawing thin when there’s a ton of big fat juicy value to be had? Pick better spots.

ADDED: The population of low-stakes cash players are 3-betting flops less than 9% of the time. Lets assume that this player is a typical reg as these stakes (as converted to Replay). Find enough bluffs in that range to justify continuing in any fashion here. Hint, there aren’t nearly enough. Winning regs are nut-hunters who don’t make huge postflop mistakes or give up their stacks on 1-pair hands. Adjust your strategy accordingly. If you happen to fold the 1 time in 10 he’s got a bluff here, big deal. Exploit the hell out of these people by not paying them off.

Happens all the time in low stakes games. As a rule of thumb, if someone limp/3-bets, its always AA. Well, not always always but pretty much always.

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Nice answer, thank you.

Pre you mean ? And low-stakes here or IRL ? He hasn’t got AA here, I’ll stop posting if he has it.
Doesn’t happen that often here though at these stakes on RP against a top ranked player.

Yeah, exactly. I think that the best play on the flop was to just call his 500k bet, that was my instinctive play. We can throw in a raise from time to time, but we can’t go on to calling a 5-bet, with a non-made hand.

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It happens way too much at low stakes, but it happens now and then with top pros too. If you are going to limp a lot of junk hands because you think you have a skill advantage, it makes sense to balance by limping big hands now and then. If we are limping to see a cheap flop, limping a big pair now and then is one way to get your opponents to respect your limps. Not every time, not a lot, but now and then.

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True, though its probably a lot more situation dependent. In this case, Selbst was in the BB with 25BB left and there were 5BB in the pot by the time it got to her. Just unlucky to have a hand that plays better as a shove here. With deeper stacks, I doubt he has a limping range. If you do have a limping range then it does make sense to protect it with some amount of your strongest hands.

Always be suspicious of the UTG limp.

Is it just me or does anyone else hate Scott Seiver as well? One of my least favorite players, along with Tom Marchese. Nervous-looking people with exaggerated blinking reflexes annoy the heck out of me for some reason. I picture them as the kids who volunteered to be hall-monitors in elementary school.

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Yes, preflop.

Both here and IRL - many people like to feel clever more than they like to make money. Every solver and simulator shows it is not as profitable a play as opening them.

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