Flop huge draw on AAQ two toned board

Tasman Sea
FR 9 handed
Effective stack (4.3M) Hero covers.

V is passive between loose and tight. He’s limping a wider range than he should be playing but limp folds a lot. I think he’s probably mostly fit or fold post flop. Calls made hands and strong draws, folds misses. Not much aggression from him and probably never bluffs.

Folds to me, UTG+1 KhTh I 145K, only V calls in MP. HU to the flop.

Flop (348K) QhAdAh… I 115K, V calls

Turn (578K) 3h… I 360K, V calls

River (1.298M) 9d… I 777K, V r 1.95M… Hero?

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The big question here is whether you’re ahead of his value range. Does he simply call off with AJ or AT? How about weaker flushes - not many out there since you block anything with Kh or Th, but maybe J9, 98, or 87? Can we remove AK from his range since he would probably 3-bet that pre? For value hands, does he 3-bet AQ or 99 pre, or call to see a flop?

In his shoes, removing the hands you block, I’d be playing A3s (2 combos), A9s (2 combos), and 33 (3 combos) for value. For bluffs, KxJh (3 combos). I don’t have my calculator handy, but it looks pretty close to a coin flip on whether you should call or fold. Nice bet sizing from V.


Forget my whole comment hahahaha, thought you had KK with the Kh…I found your line weird, should have seen that…
I’m such an idiot :joy:

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Going to get further with this, as it is a good reply.

Since we have some reads on him, I think he just calls these hands. “Not much aggression, passive”.
I think he’s got many Ax in his range, since he’s pretty loose : A5-A9o, AT, AJ, AQ, maybe even A2-A4s.

Yeah, these are the weaker flushes he has, but he’s just calling these river too, I’m almost sure. It wouldn’t make sense to raise these river, since no worse hand is going to call and that dayman’s entire value-call range is dominating him.

I just don’t know, but often people tend to 3-bet AK and just limp AQ, even suited. As for 99, he’s just calling it I think. Would he call with 99 turn ? Not sure, he might fold, maybe with the 9h he calls…

Exactly, but I think we can remove these bluffs (note from dayman).

All in all :
Value hands : AQ, A3, (guess he’s 3! QQ, and not playing it like this), A9, 33, 99.
Bluffs : none
All other Ax, he simply calls river. Lower flushes too.

We have to call 1.2M to win a pot of 5.2M, so we have to be right around 32% of the time.
Considering the things we stated above, it seems like a fold is reasonable here. A call could maybe be good, but not against this player in this circumstance. Also, the raise-size is pretty small, and seems like a “please call my raise” sizing.


I wish I could gorilla rage monkey tilt smash that little heart, unfortunately I only get to smash it once.

+1 on every single point @ValueFish. This analysis is outstanding and imo your best work in these forums, of the post I’ve seen anyway.

No worries on your initial comment, we all misread hands now and again. Better here than at the table.


After looking at a few of your hand selections, I think you are opening/raising way too wide full ring with loose passive players. KTs is a pretty hand from MP or later but it isn’t one you will make more than a fraction of a BB with on average. I’ll have to check but I’m pretty sure the vast majority of players are losing money with this open from EP. Yes, you have a skill advantage over this population but why put yourself in bad spots when there is so much easy money to be made?

I sigh-call his raise, knowing I’m beat more often than not. That’s a milky raise size from someone who “probably never bluffs”.


I think this is a guy who could flat here with AK and would definitely lean that way. He’s tight passive and I doubt he 3! anything outside of QQ+.

I don’t think he has 33 or 99, doubt he calls with those on the flop. KxJh makes sense as a bluff but I don’t see this guy bluffing much and especially when I raise pre and go bet bet bet.

This is probably a fair point and I have been adjusting my EP open raise to tables where there are a lot of these loose passive players and pots are going 5 ways no matter the sizing or position. The BB JhTh hand I know that open on that table is spew but hey sometimes I get caught up and I hadn’t been on that table long enough to settle in so to speak. This table was a different table though, I’m fairly familiar with all of these players and they limp fold and aren’t very loose facing raises. Like they’re aren’t calling with A5o and JTo type hands. KhTh is +EV for me here so I don’t see ever folding. I don’t think I would fold on the other table either where they’re not 3! but to 10x from the BB is asking for trouble.

I know I can get called by a bunch of A’s and some lower flushes but I don’t expect this player to ever raise with those hands. Honestly I think my river bet is a little too big. His sizing is why I posted, I would expect a jam from all his value that he’s raising on this board so he pretty much warped my brain with this.

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You have better site-specific population and player reads than I do by a huge margin. I base my comments on data from low-stakes games, as previously referenced. If you can make KTs work for you from EP, life is good :wink:

Sizing on river? I’m having an internal debate over flop and/or turn. That aside, there are players on the nittier side that do not jam nutted hands because they know they are never being called by better players. If they ever raise, they try to make it a size that almost has to be paid off. I don’t know the player but this may be the case here.

If I may, why are you playing full-ring? Is it to practice for live games? With your skill edge, I’d think you’d want to be on a 4 or 6-max table most of the time.

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Yeah, you’re correct though that this too loose on certain tables. For instance the other HH I posted, that table I would not have opened this hand from this position. This table though, all these are loose in the way they limp too wide to see flops but they all over fold when it gets back to them, or they give away too much info. It’s much easier to narrow their ranges but I’m speaking on these exact players of which I know them all very well.

I thought this was a sizing that could get value from all of his Ax and smaller flushes but would leave me room to fold to river shoves. He’s only shoving full houses here.

I’m out of town working so I’m really only getting an hour or so in the evenings to play. These 20/40’s are just about availability at the time I can get on. Good question though. :joy: Cheers


Thanks a lot for your compliments, dayman :blush: ! I enjoy analyzing hands, and when we get to a good conclusion together, I love it!


I think flop is a good 1/3 pot c-bet, where you’re basically going to be betting your whole range on this paired board. Turn I think it’s too big, but don’t really know if I’m right ?! You want to put some pressure on Ax that flopped trips, so IDK…

I’ve got the same opinion as you and am sure that this is a “please call my raise” sizing. Big tell IMO.

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Sizing up on this turn is pretty much a must with this player type. When he calls pre and then continues on my flop c bet he has something decent that isn’t folding on the turn. He has so many value hands that he can call with, probably around 50, and we’re ahead of 80% of that range. We’re only losing to 12 combos and 1/3 of those are mostly 3! pre so discount to 9.

I turned the nut flush, I’m not trying to put pressure on villain, I’m trying to get value from him.



I wanted to fold, typed in the chat “this is a 100% fold” I called because I’m weak… V showed me AQo. nh, we go on to the next one.


:ok_hand: That’s what I meant to say, I wasn’t clear !

BTW, I’ve seen you do that many times haha ! Listen to your poker knowledge :wink:

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Not to pick solely on @valuefish, because his comments are indicative of others I’ve seen on the forums, but I find it interesting that people who think V has few/no bluffs in his range also think his small raise sizing is a “tell.” Well, yeah! The lower your bluff-to-value ratio, the smaller your optimal bet sizing should be on the river. If a player truly never bluffs in a certain spot and you’re ahead of none of his value range, you should never call no matter the sizing. OTOH, if he’s bluffing 50% of the time or more (assuming cash game or minimal ICM distortions), you should always call no matter the sizing.


This is true and this V doesn’t bluff, I don’t think at all. I think the question for me here is does he go for a thin value raise with smaller flushes and trips. I was going to fold expecting him to shove with all of his value that beat me. I just got thrown with this tiny sizing. I never thought he was bluffing though. He has zero.

Totally agree, but I was talking in a more general way. Let’s be real : against a normal opponent, who can bluff and who is aggressive, a call is reasonable.

Overall, players who got the nuts/a boat, and who decide to slow-play it until the river, tend to have a reflex which contains fear of not being called and this also affects the bet sizing ; we shouldn’t forget that by playing live, your heart rate is increasing in these situations, and that you’re stressed because you’ve only got a few seconds to insert your raise amount (you don’t want to be folded because you took too much time… damn that just sucks when that happens lol).

Like you say Dayman, it’s funny because he should definitely be shoving/raising way bigger in this spot. His mistake paid off in the end !