hero has Qs 9s bets 3BB UTG 2 call
flop is 8s Qd 9h
v checks from BB
hero bets 1/2 pot
board turns 8s Qd 9h As
hero bet 1/2 pot
no pot odds to speak of
do i make this call?
i’m a very slight underdog in stack size. a few hundred chips maybe. i’m just under 7K, he’s just over, or something like that. blinds are 100/50, so maybe 15-20 min. in.
no read on V. i’m fairly new to table.
i’m thinking i need better pot odds to justify the call.
You flopped two pair, and had outs to a 2nd nut flush or a full house. Heck yeah I’m making that call.
You could be behind, your opponent holding AQ or a set of something could be very bad for you, and you could consider if they have a suited King that would dominate your own flush if it hits, but I think here you have a lot of outs to a couple of very nutty hands that would beat both of those, and two pair QQ99 is enough to stand up to a paired Ace if that’s all they’re holding. With that many chips in the middle, you probably should not let them go, and accept it if you’re indeed beat; your hand may just surprise them.
Generally, I wouldn’t advise raising Q9s from UTG. But there’s some variables to consider there, like how are the blinds relative to stack size, how many are seated at the table. There’s a lot better places to play better cards than that, but you flopped good.
I’m sorry, I don’t understand the first line. What position are you ? You raise 3 BB from UTG+2, and who calls and from what position ? 9-handed, 6-handed, MTT ?
Please make sure to take a few minutes to make the layout clear (I don’t know if I’m the one who needs some extra glasses lol). More people will also respond!
i see the confusion. it should read:
hero has Qs 9s, bets 3BB UTG
main play is me utg against villain in the BB. the seat that folded on the flop bet was mid position, on a 9 chair table. i’ve noticed that seat locations are named differently on 6 and 9 chair games. is UTG still a 9 chair designation, or is it just early, mid, and late?
If i’m doing this right, i take the 13 outs, and the 45 cards that are unknown to me, to get roughly 3:1 odds of improving to a flush or boat. To be priced right to call, shouldn’t i have 3:1 pot odds? But then, wouldn’t just about any shove, of 2 or more times the pot size, wipe out all pot odds?
sorry. i should start a thread called ‘waid’s really dumb questions’
to be honest, i thought he was on an OESD, after his call on the flop. Like Sun once said, “People are way too much in love with suited hands.” (including me). That makes 67s, or 7Ts very possible. Maybe 1/2 pot bet was a mistake. after the flop, i was more concerned about building the pot than knocking out draw hands.
Under the Gun (UTG) is the player following the BB, no matter how many seats.
On the turn, you have seen 6 of 52 cards, leaving 46 unseen cards, not 45. Otherwise yes, you are doing that right. The easier way is to count each out as 2%, so 13 outs is 26%, which is about 3:1 against you.
Do you need 3:1 to call there? Well, you flopped top 2 pair, so you might not need to hit that boat or flush. Your 2 pair will be good some % of the time. You could also hit your boat and lose to AQ or A9 or AA anyway. You could make your flush and lose to KsXs too. So you’re on the right basic track, but it’s not that simple.
wow, you sure got that right. Sometimes i wonder if i read too much. Sometimes the various approaches seem to contradict. i’ve read about the 4x, 2x method, from Juicee, and others, although, i guess the 4x seldom comes into play, and it’s better to look at it as 2 (2x outs), as the pot changes between turn and river. then there’s hand equity. i suspect it’s the golden egg, but i’ve yet to catch the goose. does hand equity equate to the percentages you see in an odds calculator?
i recently opened KJo for 4BB, UTG, which folded to the BB, who shoved, with K3s. i called. he hit his 3 on the flop, but the 4 clubs on the board matched my K. So, did i suck out, after opening a superior hand?
when i punched in the hand i posted, it had me a 29.55/70.45 underdog , at the turn. is the estimated 26 being so close to 29.55 just a coincidence? And how would you figure hand equity for the made straight, which only has 4 Ks as outs to a higher straight?
It sounds like you are confusing the odds of filling a draw with the pot odds to call a bet.
Count your outs, x4 is the odds of hitting an out by the river. X2 is the odds of hitting an out on once the Turn is dealt.
Complicating this is that some of the outs that improve your hand may not improve it enough, or may improve your opponents more.
Pot odds are the ratio of the chips already committed to the pot to the chips to call the wager before you. If there’s 100 in the pot, and your opponent bets 50,they are giving you 3:1 to call (your bet of 50 to call could win you 150 if you win.)
For this to be a correct call, your odds of having the best hand need to be better than 1-in-3. If that is accomplished solely by drawing to an out, then you need to be drawing to 7-8 outs (from the flop), or more.
Pot odds and draw odds do both change on each street. This needs to be reevaluated.
Complicating this is that your opponent may also be drawing to a better hand, and you need to consider the strength of whatever your current cards make.
I wouldn’t call it a suck out. You came from behind, and came to the best hand in an improbable way. But 33 isn’t a particularly sure hand, and your hole cards dominated your opponent, making you the favorite to win.
To start… what’s the pot size, and the bet size to call? Is this a cash game, SnG, or MTT? If either a SnG or MTT, where are you relative to the bubble or pay jumps (e.g. 6 remaining, with top 3 spots paying out)?
And then, when you mention 13 outs… against what? You have two pair, which is generally very strong. V could be holding some broadway draws which you dominate, but could make a straight or the nut flush depending on the runout. He could have just paired an ace, or have AK which is drawing extremely thin. Or he could have a set or AQ, and you need to hit the flush or a boat in order to win the pot.
Personally, I think calling makes the most sense in this spot, as you may be ahead of part of V’s value range (if he shoves with a naked ace?), don’t block any of his bluffs, and have the outs to a flush if you’re behind.
don’t open Q9 suited UTG… fold pre, the game you’re in is probably no where near deep enough to be opening UTG this wide. As played 1/2 is okay on the flop but I’d prefer a slightly smaller down bet, something like 1/3 pot. You’re in a spot with top 2 on a rainbow board where you don’t have to worry much about protection, you’re really mainly only worried about T’s and J’s. It’s kind of hard to say with any degree of certainty how exactly you should proceed on the flop without having effective stack sizes. How much do you and the villains have? On the turn there is no way you can fold here, you have way too much equity in this pot. You’re blocking top two which is AQ and even if he has JT, AQ, A9 or A8 you have flush outs and full house outs. 12 outs vs AQ and A9 and 15 outs against the rest of his value range
@SunPowerGuru is correct, UTG is the position following the BB, however the number of players at the table do matter a lot. That’s why when posting HH’s it is important to let us know how many players are at the table. A better way of describing position is to let us know how far off the button a player is. Example is the position commonly referred to as the cut off would be called 1otb or 1 off the button. Highjack is 2otb or 2 off the button. UTG in a FR 9 handed game has 8 players after him/her to act so requires a much stronger range to come into pots. UTG in a 6 max game has only 5 players left to act behind so his/her range can be quite a bit wider. So UTG in a FR is 6otb but in 6 max it’s only 3otb so in a 6 max you should play ranges similar to what you would play 3otb in a FR 9 handed game or the position commonly referred to as the lojack (MP2). I hope some of this helps clear up any confusion about the UTG position. Cheers!
@waidus this is all important information needed to provide accurate analysis.
I agree, we should be ahead of enough of V’s value and have plenty of outs against the value we’re behind to make this a profitable call. We’re blocking most of his sets which a lot of probably x/r flop anyway. If he has AQ or A9 it’s kind of poopy but not horrible. We’d rather see the JT straight as we have more clean outs vs the nuts. I would make the call after betting this turn, but I do think this is a turn card that we should be checking back a lot as it brings us a flush draw and reduces the amount of protection we need. If V is a super nit and only does this with nut hands then you can find a fold I guess. What are we calling like 6K to win 10K?
the villians hand was TJo, which was one i didn’t even consider. i’ve flopped straights before, why would i discount him doing the same. i try to keep my playable suited hands down to 1 gappers, AX or maybe 2 gappers, if royal. this means i get 2pr losers, to straights, a lot more than i like. when i called on the river, i was really betting on the 13 outs, more than anthing.
i can see how i should have added more details, and should have been clearer on the ones i did include.
every fiber of my poker playing being makes this call, except one. It’s hands like this that are responsible for most of my 6th and 7th place S&G finishes, and dismal MMT exits, so far from the money it’s embarrassing.
the hand: https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/520421828/straight-eight-to-queen
if i put on my monday morning QB hat, i guess i’d check back on the turn, and put it back on him after i’ve seen the river. i had played well up to that point, and had an above avg. stack, so the smart move was as dayman said…just fold preflop, and wait for a better opportunity
Don’t beat yourself up over this one too much, after you open pre not a lot you can do. While as I stated this hand is a little too wide from UTG it’s not absolutely horrible. You will just find yourself dominated a bit too often with top pair and the little bit of flush value this hand has won’t make up for it.
@waidus I also want to say I like that you didn’t post results in the OP. Keeping results out of the HH will get you better feedback/analysis that’s not going to be biased. Be careful in your wording and the tone of the post though not to telegraph your hand or whether you won or lost. In this OP I did feel like I was reading a bad beat by the end so not surprised V had JT. Cheers man!
Two pair hands are tricky. I lost a lot more money on Two Pair than I did on One Pair for a while when I was starting out learning about a year ago. It took me a while to figure out how to play them.
With your hole cards, you are a little stronger if your cards are within reach of each other to make a straight. But when you make two pair with connectors or gappers, you should be mindful to see what the rest of the board might give someone. If the board has three cards within 5 ranks of each other, there’s a potential straight.
Straights can be difficult to see, especially if the hole cards that fill it are in the middle of the straight.
Better Two Pair hands may be when you’re holding a wide suited hand (like A/K-rag) and happen to pair both cards. The spread out two pair makes the possibility of the straight greatly diminished. You probably don’t want to play weak suited Aces or Kings a whole lot, but for cheap flops, or when you’re deep-stacked, they can be good to play sometimes.
Players who flop Top Pair, Two Pair, or Trips will usually try to close the hand, because they want their opponents to pay dearly for the chance to fill their draws. Flopped straights prevent that from working (although Trips/Sets will suck out from time to time by hitting full houses, plus you can’t have a flopped straight and flopped trips, but a flopped set is obviously possible).
You also have to be careful with Two Pair when the board pairs, because now whoever has Top Pair also has Two Pair, the board pair could also make someone Trips, or could give someone on a set a Full House. The board will pair roughly half the time (the same probability your 5-hand card will make a pair.) So roughly half the time, a Two Pair hand with a card over it will be vulnerable to a paired board and someone pairing the top card on the board (or holding a hole overpair).
It’s very easy for Two Pair to be upset and overtaken, but it can be a great way to break Top Pair and pocket Pairs.
So how do you play Two Pair? With caution. That means betting to close the hand quickly if the board doesn’t have: a pair, 3-4 of one suit, 3-4 to make a straight. Don’t over-value two pair, especially if you don’t hold the top pair on the board, and don’t necessarily shove on two pair unless that’s the best way to close the hand based on your read of your opponents. It’s often good to raise someone who bets after you’ve made two pair, provided they haven’t already made trips or better.
This is inaccurate. If you have bottom two pair and your opponent has top pair on an unpaired flop, then both hands block many the ways got the board to pair. Only 2 of the remaining 45 unseen cards will pair the top card, and 3 others will pair your opponent’s unpaired card on the turn. 8 of the unseen 44 cards will pair the board or your opponent’s unpaired card, while not giving you a boat, on the river. This makes the likelihood of your opponent making trips or a better two pair when you have bottom two pair and your opponent has top pair on the flop just 1-(40/45)*(36/44)=3/11, or 27%.
That is true. Thanks for going deeper with the explanation. I meant to say that the board is about 50% likely to pair, giving Top Pair two pair. Which can be bad for bottom two pair. But of course some of these board pairs will improve the bottom two pair to a full house. The remaining cards that give top two pair a different pair for two pair are the time when your bottom two pair is vulnerable.
Board: 89A, 2,2
Is a bad beat for 89.
Board: 89A, 82
Is a great hand for 89.
The situation where you don’t have top pair, but you have the board run out to give you “Three Pair” is the dangerous one for your smaller Two Pair. Either you’ll be vulnerable to Top two, as in the example above, or you’ll be vulnerable to the full house, as in this hand:
This is what makes two pair tricky. We are told that pocket pairs are strong, but when you make two pair with them, you’re sharing a pair with the community, and that can give someone else a stronger hand. You think your strength is hidden in your pocket, and don’t see the Trips possibility turning someone else into a boat. With Two Pair, it’s better to pair each of your hole cards, leaving no communal pair on the board, and blocking 2/5 of the possible community pairs since those would make you a full house.
But then, better still is to hit a set, and maybe improve to full house with any of the remaining board cards pairing. So, again, it’s tricky to play with two pair.
Is there specific time frames when you’re more likely on the tables than others? I’d like to sit in on one of your sessions if that’s okay. I’ll respect ya if you don’t want me fishing in your pond, just think it’d be cool to play a little with you.
This hand is from the final table at one of the 20K buy-in, MTT. 6 seats.
Blinds 1000/2000 4 stacks are 20-30K, 1 is 61.5K
SB (villain) (29.1k beginning stack) calls 1K
BB (hero) (25.9K beginning stack) raises to 4K, with As Ad
CO and SB call 2K
pot is 12K (was the min raise dumb? i wanted to build the pot , without scaring them away)
Flop: 4c 4h 8c
Was i nuts to shove into a paired board? He could already have quads, two boat combos, a flush draw, gutshot to a straight , or sf gs? I’m thinking he won’t risk a shot at winning the tourament, on a draw hand. Or, he calls, and i probably lose to trip fours.
results to be posted later.