222 bb’s effective
V has AhJh in the HJ
UTG fold, V opens 2.25x, CO calls, BTN fold, Hero in SB 3! 11.5x, BB fold, V call, CO fold… HU to the flop
Flop (26 bb) Js Ad 2c… Hero bet 6.5 bb, V calls
Turn (39 bb) Qh… Hero bet 29 bb, V calls
River (97 bb) 4h… Hero tanks then x, V bet 39 bb, Hero x/r all in for 175 bb, V?? has to call 136 bb’s to win 447 bb’s
Without knowing V’s tendencies, hard to say how wide you 3! oop there, but it’s hard to give you KT.
Downbet lead on the flop doesn’t really tell us much. This kinda looks like a blocking bet to me, but you do claim you like to downbet a lot, so who knows?
It looks like the turn hit you, and you want to block the straight draw.
The check on the river looked too weak to be true. I would have checked behind and saved myself a tuff decision. I think he had enough showdown value to take the cheaper route there.
I would guess you had QQ.
There are a few other possibilities, like AQ or JJ or even AA, but V had blockers for all of them, so less likely. I don’t see many bluffs that can take that line on this rainbow board, so your tank-x! shove wins the day.
I mostly would have raised you on the flop, for what that’s worth.
NOTE: I am not limiting your SB 3! range to the hands I listed. Those hands were listed after taking in the context of the entire hand as played.
By the way, the way I see it, he had to call 136 BBs to win 311 BBs, not 447.
AJs is a fold on the river to the x/r. Can’t confuse absolute hand strength with relative hand strength, especially in 3! pots. 2-pair is nice and all but this 2-pair is beating exactly nothing on a x/r river here. I’m fine with the bet when checked to but V shouldn’t call the shove. On this runout, find a reasonable bluff that takes this line.
Assuming you are playing a 3! or fold strategy from the SB, I give you all K9s+ so KTs is a def possibility. As played, I cant give you anything less than a set of jacks as your x/shove on river. I think AK and all your 2-pair Ax hands are bet/bet/bet (or x/c). QJs is possible but never a x/r river. Sets would be bet/bet/bet I’d think but maybe some river traps to get stacks in having V on TP+. I hate to put you in with the population for reads but x/r rivers are generally the nuts so I’m giving @dayman JJJ as the low end and higher probability for KTs (spades diamonds or clubs most likely).
When UTG opens and CO flats, raising KT seems a little too optimistic to me. Maybe my vision is too distorted by my tourny lenses. Still, I think that queen on the turn did hit him, so I guess it’s possible.
I also suspect he bets out with JJJ on the river, and probably bet/calls with AQ, so I am sticking with QQQ.
Either way, I’m folding AJ there faster than rice paper at a speed origami contest. Well, I wouldn’t have put myself in that position to begin with, but we agree a fold is in order.
This is so exciting!!! The anticipation is killing me!!
It is 136 to win the entire pot of 447 which equates to 136/447=.034. V needs to win 30.4% of the time when he makes this call.
I don’t think KTs is in either players’ preflop range, although either of you can have a few combos of it to mix up your play.
The river should definitely be a fold for the villain. When he bets on the river, he’s trying to get a call from a hand like AK, so he would only value bet 2-pair or better. He can bluff with some hands like KQs to try to fold out ATs. I don’t think hands like A2s would be in his preflop range, which means AJs is the weakest value hand he can have. It is in the bottom of his range, so he should fold.
When facing a check-raise, he is facing either a strong set, a rare KTs combo, or a bluff. It not too difficult to find bluffs in this situation, although I would say most people under bluff this spot. Some possible bluff candidates include KJ, TT, or TJ that bet the flop as part of an autobet strategy, bet the turn as a bluff with a bad pair + gutshot, and checked the river intending to give up.
If he knows you X/R the river only with KTs or a bluff and never sets, he can maybe call with KQs that bluffed the river but now holds blockers. AJs should never be in his calling range, unless he thinks you overbluff.
You kids and yer new math! Back in my day, .034 was 34%.
The way I look at it, the 136 still belongs to you until you put it in the middle, so I would be risking 136 of my chips to win 311, which is currently what’s in the pool to be awarded to the winner. Different way to see the same stuff, I guess.
This was exactly how I thought… V thinks he has to call because KK and TT are good bluffs. While it’s true KK is a good bluff candidate I don’t know how I ever get to the river with KK. AK is x/c at best but I think I comfortably fold after getting called flop and turn for .25/.75. AJ is a bluff catcher and blocks the most likely bluff I can have on the river which would be turning AK into a bluff but I would x AK at some frequency on the flop being OOP. Thanks @1Warlock
@SunPowerGuru thanks for your analysis. I am playing 3! or fold from the SB and I need more than a 3% range to play from especially on tables where most every pot is opened for a raise. All suited broadway, A5s, 99+ and AQo+ and I would add in a few extra combos when squeezing vs HJ RFI and a CO call so probably like half of the A4s and 88 combos. Also fwiw I think playing in tournaments you should be playing more aggressively as the increasing blinds puts pressure on your stack as well as opponents. That being said I don’t play many tournaments on Replay and the player pool being so passive may allow a little more time to wait for cards, I can’t imagine it’s much though.
typo… the actual math comes out .304 thanks for the gig! Cheers!
EDIT: you have your own typo my brother… .034 would be 3.5%
Or 3.4% LOL
Nice @aoeu. KQ does block KT but it also blocks my most likely bluffs. AJ blocks AK and AA, JJ but I’m definitely going bet bet bet with flopped sets. Thanks man.
You both would be shocked at my 3! range in the SB in this exact situation. Even if I were to adjust it back to a zero rake environment, I would still have KTs comfortably in that range. KTs should not be in IR’s range as a flat to the 3!. This is one of the benefits to having hands like K9s and KTs in your 3! bluffing range. You will fold out all the KTo-KQo, KTs-KJs in IR’s opening range so you are clearing out your equity on the K. You are also clearing out most of the Tx combos.
I don’t know how things are running here but I can tell you that no database I’ve ever seen has a x/r river frequency that is remotely balanced. In fact, vs almost every population any of us will ever face, having a balanced x/r river strategy is going to be disastrous. Most of the bluff candidates would continue the river and not x/r. Also, this is a 3! pot, not a single raised pot so both ranges are stronger and this board has a too much for each player to go nuts on bluffs. Blockers are nice but outside of Pio, people place way too much importance on them. Theory is one thing but what happens on the table when you aren’t a nosebleed regular is another.
I don’t know how you are constructing your c-bet strategy but I wouldn’t have KK or TT on the line you took. KK and TT would be the 1st natural checks on the flop for me. I don’t see much point in turning KK into a x/r bluff at all. I can’t see how KQ takes this line so that is out as a bluff for me.
At these depths, I might have sized up the 3! size a little (~13) and also the turn bet (closer to pot or even an overbet) to set up a more natural river jam if that was your intention.
Curious to hear what actually happened. I’ll step out on a limb and say my top candidate for H is KdTd, followed by KsTs and then KcTc. QQ and JJ are in my next tier at some frequency (though I’m betting my sets).
This is why I added the note explaining that I narrowed your range based on the line you took, including the x/shove on the river. Of course you are 3! pre more than the few hands I listed.
Since you are insisting that KTs is, in fact, in your range there, and that you might well play KT exactly like you played the hand, there’s a good chance that’s what you had. QQ is also a strong possibility, at least as I see things.
Perhaps one day you will tell us? 
100% x KK and TT on the flop. The only K I can have on the river to turn into a bluff is AK but as you stated river x/r in 3! pots are extremely unbalanced and I’m probably x/f AK on the river here.
I’m betting sets too for value and calling off player dependent if course. This player I would definitely bet call JJ as he’s definitely looking to find bluffs in his range and I think a lot of these guys who are actively looking to find bluffs ultimately find too many.
QQ I x flop as well. I’ll post the replay.
Pretty hand. Nicely done. Did you have history with V that allowed you to x river to induce a bet? What would you have called with in V’s shoes? Would he still have JJ or is that a 4! preflop for him?
Interesting. With the 25% size I think you can pretty much bet range on this flop. I’m splitting my range for the most part but QQ would go into my small bet category (with KK and TT in the x category). I’d look to get value from Jx and all pocket pairs, along with every draw he has. I’d also bet my 88/99 and most of my suited combos with backdoor draws (and no SDV). Probably not much EV difference either way though.
AK likely goes into the 3 streets of small bets for me and fold to a raise on river. OOP its just barely a 3 street hand on this runout and only if V’s range is kept wide with small bets.
Yeah, i was wondering that too. Why bet KT, but check QQ?
As far as aggression in tournaments, yeah, but time and place for everything. KTs from the SB just leads to too many tuff spots to be something I would do very often. And yeah, I have posted hands where I raised with far less, but it’s all situational to me.
As I said, I probably would have raised your flop bet and checked behind if you were still around on the river. Different approach to the game, I guess.
Anyway, thanks for posting that. Was interesting and great fun!
I have just a little bit of history with V. He likes to talk strategy which I think is more than okay in a free play environment. Enough to know he’s thinking about the game in terms of distribution in the sense of value to bluff ratio and that he looks for thin value and bluffs. I struggled to decide whether to bet or x and timed out in the end, he had just slow played AA in a very similar spot where he open HJ, CO call and the BTN squeezed. He x/r QJ4r in a 3 way pot, bet brick turn and shoved a J river and got called by worse. I was leaning towards x though as I thought he would look to turn more of his hands into thin value/bluffs on the river than he’d be calling vs a 3! going 3 streets post. If I was him I have KT and after that QQ and JJ. I think calling having 4 KT and 3 QQ is plenty. I don’t know if I could fold JJ, probably not in the pools I play which aren’t good enough to turn AQ into a bluff but are bad enough to over value it on the river. I’m never calling lower than JJ though. AQ and AJ just seem like clear and easy bet folds on the river but I don’t know if he’s raising KT 100% on turn, probably shouldn’t with no bd draws coming in and just full house outs to worry about.