I’m having a hard time deciphering your shorthand, are you saying you have 315 chips? While the other two have 1000 each? Are there any other players seated at the table? Is this a ring game or a tournament?
As far as Button’s range, you’re probably looking at an overpair, an Ace, A3 if you’re unlucky for a flopped straight, maybe even 63, or possibly two spades or a small set. It’s also possible they have nothing and are banking on your range missing the flop, and not calling a shove with an inside straight draw + two overcards.
V. has 33, thus blocking your straight draw, and having the open ended straight draw himself. He is happy for you to call off all your stack with 2 overcards and a blocked gutshot, but is more worried about you having two overcards plus the flush draw. Given the stack differentials, UTG +2 must fold.
I think UTG+2 must c-bet 1/3 pot, or whatever his standard c-bet is, otherwise he loses the hand 2 out of 3 times when he does not flop a pair.
It all comes down to relative stack sizes.
This is a classic situation and very problematical in short stacked tournament. If UTG+2 c-bets and V shoves with nothing, can UTG call? If UTG folds, he may end up stack-crippled.
No, we shouldn’t c-bet flop. This is not a flop that favors our range. While we’ll have overpairs, we shouldn’t have any sets or straights. There was recently a great video (hat tip: @1Warlock) on Pluribus’s out-of-position (OOP) c-betting strategy. IIRC, on low connected boards, Pluribus was checking his entire range even after 3-betting when OOP. By checking here, you strengthen your checking range, and avoid putting yourself in a really awkward spot when getting raised all-in.
This is a key piece of information. If the button is shoving, he also needs to worry about UTG+2, making this a massive raise.
I could see the button doing this with sets and A3 for value, 3s3x or AsXs as a bluff, and 6s7s with the combo draw.
Fold. You’re behind all of his value, and either even with his bluffs (e.g. As8s) or a significant dog against them (80-20 against 3s3x). Also, by holding the ace of clubs yourself, you all but guarantee he’s not doing this with a backdoor flush draw, blocking one of the main potential bluffs you might have some equity against.
+1 to everything concerning the flop bet @WannabeCoder. This c-bet is pretty horrendous for all the reasons you gave. I think after making the c-bet, folding to button shove would be compounding that mistake and this is a must call. I think the range you’re giving button is too wide when cold calling a 3! 330 bb’s effective with an EP opener.
This is a fun one. Just breezing through so don’t have much time to analyze much but my initial impressions:
preflop H fine though maybe the 3! was a bit too large for his stack size
BTN cold-call of EP open and MP 3! should have a super strong range, mostly in the AQs+, TT-QQ range. He should never have A3s, mid suited connectors or 33 as he doesn’t have the required implied odds vs H. If rake was as high as it is in many casinos, there are almost no cold-calls he should have here, 4! or fold mostly.
C-bet isn’t terrible IMO - in a 3-bet pot, no one should have connected with this board in any meaningful way. Some gutshots with Ax (only AQ and AK) and some flush draws. The rest are overcards/overpairs. In a single raised pot I think the c-bet would be worse.
Fold to the shove. H needs roughly 30% equity and he doesn’t have it. Most likely V is shoving something like TT-JJ and occasionally AQ/AK with spades. Against that range H is toast.
Yeah, population tendencies definitely matter. I do think that the 1/3 pop tightens up when it comes to 3! pots though, they’re not used to seeing a lot of them and a good amount of the pool is at least aware enough to know you can’t set mine getting 5:1. He’s probably more likely to have A3s but I would heavily discount that being that he has to be aware the EP player who opened has $1000. $1000 is a lot of money in the 1/3 world and most players are not going to want to be playing for those stakes with hands like 76s 55 44 A3s, even at 1/3.
All this being said, give him a range that consist of only straights A3s (3) all sets (9) pairs TT-KK (21) 33 (6) pair + draw A5s-A2s (7) and suited broadway spades ATs+ KTs+ QTs+ JTs (10) we still have 31% equity. We have to call 185/(180+70+255+185) or 185/690= < 27%, we need 27% equity to make the call. EV calculation on this would be (505*.31)+(-185*.69) or rounded to 157 + -128 = 29. So making this call vs the estimated range is +EV worth $29 per every time we make it. I think it’s much higher though because like I said I don’t believe he has all the sets or straights or really any of them for that matter.
The big problem is on the flop c-bet. Having committed to calling off due to the c-bet when he shoves or utg has a set or straight or over pairs he’s not folding I have to put in 255 to win 690/945 in which case I need 37%/27% equity respectively. I think 37% is close with btn not giving him sets and 27% is going to be pretty low if btn shoves and utg calls, then I probably have to fold.
1-3 100% I still have questions about 4, think this is a clear call and your 2nd bullet strengthens that for me. Check out my reply to Coder and tell me what you think when you have time please and thank you.
Will do - was just thinking that maybe a shove or check would have been better on the flop if that is how you would have played your overpairs, other than AA. You only had 1.5x pot left so it isn’t outragoeus by any means. I’ll give this some thought. As I said, I was just passing through and gave my 1st impressions.
@1Warlock my bad, I have to take part of that back lol, I disagree with the 3! being too large due to his stack size. He’s opening a lot and I have direct position on him 2 to his left and want to be 3! him a lot especially when we’re in later positions. I didn’t mention in the op, so you wouldn’t know but utg defends his opens at a high frequency so I 3! larger for value as he’s going to be putting in more $ with inferior range oop.
I considered shoving flop after the fact but ultimately decided that it was bad because utg can have all the sets and A3s for straights, he’s closing the action pre and is $1K deep with btn cold callers so the price is quite attractive for him. I like x/r all in when btn bets and utg folds or x/f if btn shoves best.
You’re right - if I give V a shoving range of TT+ and AQ+ with the flush draw, you have about 31% equity (+~6% chop). Therefore need to call his shove once you made the c-bet. Ugh, what a gross spot.
Will take a look at the rest of the hand tomorrow. I have to think about the oversized open with a loose range (counterintuitive) and then the large 3! off a 105bb stack. I also have to think about UTG+1 continue range vs the 3! and flat. I have a really hard time giving him straights and sets on this board unless he is way off the reservation with his ranges. I don’t think we’re in GTO-land anymore Toto.
Had one previous to this that was not interesting but fun. MP open 16 SB call I call 22 in the BB flop 642ss x x MP 20 SB call I 65 fold SB call (175) turn 2c SB donk shoves all in I snap while turning my cards over telling her I really hope she wins the pot. She has 44 turn boat. A one out to the 4 on the river quads over quads I get a $40K share of a $100K bad beat. Ugh!
Yeah, I didn’t lose the hand so no bad beat but did stick the landing on a $750 pot plus a $100 high hand bonus. Was in for $900 so got me pretty close to unstuck for the day. Side note: sweet revenge, the girl I hit quads against her set had an hour earlier in that session got it in pre $800 pot with JJ v my KK and spiked a J on the flop to cooler me.