Argh I’m too late guys…
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It’s good to see you VF!
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Results… I called, he had KK, no waiting, 3 on the turn V drawing dead to the river. I still think that the flop c-bet was an error… we live, we learn.
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What was v holding?
KK
Good to see you too mate. Already a millionaire by now ? Haha !
Assuming the table is 9 handed and not six since it a live cash game.
UTG2 opens big, assuming he opens 15 with all his hands and you don’t think he is particallary tight a 3-bet pre seems fine, honestly calling and even folding seem reasonable as well. I would assume he opens AJo, JTs+ and 7s+. You decide to make it 60 which seems like a fine sizing and BTN calls, in live cash games I would assume he either is a huge fish and plays a lot of hands and can’t seem to find a fold with hands like 65s but mostly I just think he has a huge hand but doesn’t want to 4 bet, Maybe AKo + 10s-Qs (since he would 4 bet kings + aces) UTG2, calls and can have a lot of hands since he closes action 3 ways maybe 7s, AKs, and JTs+ folding AQ and AJ.
Flop kinda sucks you are fairly reasonably drawing close to death vs both villains ranges, you still have a range advantage however. From my experience cash game players are quite sticky and I honestly don’t think they would fold many poket pairs here especially the button. Just check folding here seems best. Betting small like 1/4-1/3 pot and hoping for a fold, but jamming club / Q / A turns seems reasonable but I think this is def a worse play.
When BTN raises I think he most likely has 10s/Js/Qs and wants to protect these hands now I can not put him on any hand which is worse then yours, honestly fairly easy fold when he raises
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Thanks @NoBluf for the analysis on this hand. I agree with pretty much everything you said. I think x/f to flop jam is probably the best action to take here with this hand. UTG2 is quite competent and usually plays bigger when 2/3 600 cap and 2/5 1K cap is running (these games don’t always get going during the weeknights) and he does open suited wheels and 44 55 at some frequency from this position. Because he can have sets and straights I think flop is a 100% x. After I make the mistake of betting flop though when btn shoves and utg2 folds I have to call, it’s +EV even if btn has sets and straights(which he just doesn’t have) calling 185 to win 690 only need little less than 27% equity. Thanks again, really do appreciate your analysis. Cheers!
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I personally do not think you can bet call it off here ever and making this play will most likely lose you a lot of money. If you are really are trying to make money playing cash games send me a message in game and I will try to help you out and give you some tips etc.
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I will do that, thank you. Any help/advice you are willing to give would be greatly appreciated!
OK, I’ve given this hand some more thought. Unless people want to get into a really long discussion about all the competing forces at play here (which I am totally up for), I think we can boil it down to a few key concepts.
- Understanding at least range theory is essential for playing against competent players.
- Ditto for relative position, effective stack sizes and which hands perform best by both
- Understanding how tables/players are deviating from optimal strategies allows us to create effective counter strategies to exploit them
- Even with all the information above, there are no certainties. All we can do is look for the most EV+ play available to us at any given time.
The most interesting thought experiment for me from this hand has to do with relative stack sizes and how to work with them. We have a hand where 2 players are 300bb+ effective against each other but only 103bb effective vs H. H obviously has a hand that plays well HU with a low SPR (based on his 3-bet size). Both V’s have to take this into account but also think about their ranges vs each other. I can see merits in BTN having AA and KK in his flatting range here. At the current SPR, the money is likely going in HU vs H on almost every board already. However, a cold 4-bet would allow UTG+1 and H to play perfectly as this range is pretty much face-up. Specifically against UTG+1, a cold 4-bet will fold out just about everything except the part of the range we aren’t looking to get stacks in preflop with. At 100bb, getting it in with KK is standard. At 200bb+ most competent players are not looking to be all-in preflop and AA/KK become part of the flatting range at high frequency (depending on position and number of players in the pot).
I still am having a hard time putting UTG+1 on a decent range. @dayman suggested that this player was flatting a lot of 3-bets OOP. I can range that easily. The issue is when there is a cold-call after the 3-bet and then it gets back around to UTG+1. There are very few hands he can profitably see a flop here with, despite getting a “great price”. Its a horrible spot to be playing a big pot vs 2 very strong ranges when you are in the worst position, especially if both those players are good. Vs fish, sure you can see flops with small pairs/wheel Axs and hope to get stacks with sets/straights/flushes. Vs multiple good players and OOP, you aren’t going to get their stacks on 1-pair hands and on occasion will lose your stack in a set over set situation. IMO, UTG+1 should be folding or 4-betting almost his entire opening range given the action that followed. A big part about being a winning poker player is knowing when to avoid spots that have a high likelihood of a bad outcome. Throwing another 15bb at a pot just to see if you both smash the flop and can get paid is not a profitable play. If he had a calling range, I’d think he would only continue with 88+ and some AKs. All the weaker Ax, suited Broadways, and smaller pairs need to be folded. All of the suited connectors/gappers need to go as well. Because of the open and 3-bet sizes, UTG+1 doesn’t even have the implied odds vs BTN to play these profitably.
Long story short on UTG+1, if he really is a good player and not in gamble-mode, he will not have straights or sets on this flop. Nobody will.
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This is a great write up @1Warlock. I agree with 100% of this. EP is barely getting a decent price to set mine with small pairs but oop is going to have a hard realizing his equity even when he flops a set. The likelihood of his being set over set is also higher considering he’s going to be multi-way vs ranges with a lot of high pairs in both.
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