The Most Important Concept for Self-Review

Poker Strategy
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Hi all, this is my first post! I hope of many to come :slight_smile: I’ve been on the site for years but only really active in 2024, and so far I’m having a blast. The games are great; the people are even better. So thanks to all of you for making this such a welcoming community.

On to substance! I’ve been browsing the forum and noticed a distressing (if not uncommon) trend:

“I ALWAYS LOSE WITH KINGS”
“REPLAY RIVERS”
“62 IS FAVORED”

And so on. That is, players complaining that either a) certain hands perform much worse than expected, b) they personally run much worse than expected, or c) the site itself distributes cards unevenly.

I don’t believe any of those things are true, though I’ll admit to having seriously limited evidence. What’s more likely is that everyone making these comments is suffering from some kind of HEURISTIC BIAS.

As The Decision Lab nicely puts it, a heuristic is a “mental shortcut” that helps us make decisions faster. However, they often aren’t as reliable as we think they are - or at all.

A big one in poker is Confirmation Bias. For instance, if you know AA is the best starting hand, you might expect to win more with it than any other hand - which is generally true! But you’re likely to overestimate his big that edge really is. When you do lose with aces, you feel extra bad because you expected to win. This makes you remember the losses more than the wins, and in time, you reach the (false/wrong) conclusion that MY ACES ALWAYS GET CRACKED.

AA is also THE BEST hand, making it subject to the Serial Position Effect - we tend to take more notice of things at the top/bottom or beginning/end than we do for things in the middle. This further skews what we remember (or don’t remember).

I could go on and on but I’m already annoying myself with this academia babble, so I’ll shut up now lol. But yeah - FWIW I’ve got 20k hands logged so far, hardly the biggest sample, but nothing looks strange to me.

Finally, keep in mind that if anything, it’s REAL LIVE poker that is “rigged” - I think it takes 6 proper shuffles to truly randomize a deck of cards (so that no card is significantly more or leas likely to show up based on its position before shuffling i.e. after the previous hand), but pretty much no casinos have the dealers actually do this. Unsure about the machine dealers. But it’s possible that IRL poker is less “random” than it should be, and the “weird” stuff we see online is actually “more random,” not less.

It’s also possible that because we see more hands online… OK OK I’ll stop now!

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A load of rhubarb

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You strike me as a bit like rhubarb yourself, rather dull, insipid and bitter

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Congratulations on your first post!

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Sad that we have negative comments on here. Please consider another’s feelings.

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Am I in the right place?

Is this Replay Poker or a Don Rickles Special?

LoL

Getting zinged by Don Rickles was considered a compliment back in the day.

Perception and awareness.

Awareness of the perception bias.

The awareness of the padded walls.

LoL

Always and never are the extreme words.

They are belted out of frustration.

Belting out a load of rhubarb seems gentle enough especially when rhubarb is currently out of season.

If it was in season, well now, that’s a whole new bowl of cherries.

LoL

Remember to have fun on these Community Forums!

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I like the cut of your jib

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Well, I took exception to your first post, so I am wondering after the second post what you really believe. I agreed with most of the second.

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thank you!

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You’re welcome.

“One should learn to sail in all winds.” - Italian proverb

We can say now, " One should learn to sail through all biases "

We need to be aware of all the biases first.

Self-Review is usually a realization that more work needs to be done.

No matter how advanced we are, there’s always room for improvement.

BTW, that was an excellent one sentence reply, " I like the cut of your jib"

Are you sure you haven’t done this before? LoL

Well, I sense the quality of this Community Forum has improved with your presence.

Thank you!

See you around!

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Here are some cognitive biases that poker players should be aware of:

(There’s some duplicates listed.)

  1. Gambler’s Fallacy: This is the mistaken belief that past events impact future outcomes in a random process. In poker, this fallacy can manifest in several ways. [For example, a player might believe that a specific card is “due” to be dealt because it hasn’t appeared in a while or that their luck is about to change after a losing streak

  2. Confirmation Bias: This is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses. In poker, this can cause players to overlook or misinterpret evidence that contradicts their expectations or strategies1.

  3. Overconfidence Bias: This bias can lead to players overestimating their own abilities or the strength of their hand, leading to risky decisions1.

  4. Sunk Cost Fallacy: This is when a player continues to invest in a losing hand because they have already put a lot of money into the pot. The more they invest, the greater the sunk costs are, and the greater the urge to continue becomes2.

  5. Tilt: This refers to a state of emotional frustration or anger that can lead to reckless and irrational play. It often occurs after a significant loss or a bad beat and can be detrimental to a player’s bankroll1.

  6. Fear of Loss: Players who are overly concerned about losing money may make overly cautious decisions, missing out on potential opportunities to win1.

  7. Desire for Success: Players who are too focused on winning may become blinded by their desire for success and make poor decisions based on impulse rather than logic1.

  8. Recency Bias: This is the tendency to weigh recent events more heavily than older ones. In poker, this might mean overvaluing a recent win or loss when making decisions about future hands.

  9. Hindsight Bias: Also known as the “knew-it-all-along” effect, this is the tendency to see past events as having been predictable. In poker, this might lead a player to second-guess their decisions after the outcome is known.

  10. Anchoring Bias: This is the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the “anchor”) when making decisions. In poker, this could mean placing too much emphasis on early hands or early wins or losses1.

  11. Availability Heuristic: This is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind. When a player relies on recent experiences to predict outcomes, they may overestimate the likelihood of certain events1.

  12. Self-Serving Bias: This is the tendency to credit success to one’s own skills and blame losses on bad luck or external factors. This can prevent a player from accurately assessing their own abilities and improving their strategy1.

  13. Negativity Bias: This is the tendency to give more weight to negative experiences than positive ones. [A player might become overly cautious or risk-averse due to a few bad beats

  14. Bandwagon Effect: This is the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. A player might follow popular strategies without considering if they are the best fit for their style of play2.

  15. Survivorship Bias: This is a form of selection bias where you focus on the people or strategies that “survived” some process and inadvertently overlook those that didn’t due to their lack of visibility. In poker, this might mean focusing only on successful strategies and ignoring the unsuccessful ones.

  16. Halo Effect: This is the tendency for an impression created in one area to influence opinion in another area. If a player has won a big pot, their subsequent actions might be viewed more favorably.

  17. Optimism Bias: This is the belief that each of us is more likely to experience good outcomes than to experience bad outcomes. In poker, this might lead to overestimating the chances of winning a hand.

  18. Projection Bias: This is the tendency to unconsciously assume that others share the same or similar thoughts, beliefs, values, or positions. In poker, this might lead to incorrect assumptions about another player’s hand based on what you have in your hand.


  1. The Curse Of Knowledge: This bias occurs when an individual, communicating with other individuals, unknowingly assumes that the others have the background to understand    1. In poker, an experienced player might overestimate the knowledge of a less experienced player, leading to misreads and mistakes.
  2. The Availability Heuristic: This is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind. When a player relies on recent experiences to predict outcomes, they may overestimate the likelihood of certain events2.
  3. Pessimism Bias and Optimism Bias: These two biases are very commonplace, yet they seem to be complete opposites of one another3. The pessimism bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes. On the other hand, the optimism bias is a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others3.
  4. The Self-Serving Bias: This bias leads us to blame our failures on the circumstances around us, yet give ourselves full credit for our successes4. In poker, how many players do we know (including ourselves) who blame bad luck for our losses? Yet, when we win, we give ourselves, and our skill, full credit4?

[Remember, being aware of these biases and actively working to counteract them can significantly improve your decision-making process and overall poker performance]

  1. The Curse Of Knowledge: This bias occurs when an individual, communicating with other individuals, unknowingly assumes that the others have the background to understand1. In poker, an experienced player might overestimate the knowledge of a less experienced player, leading to misreads and mistakes.
  2. The Availability Heuristic: This is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to mind. When a player relies on recent experiences to predict outcomes, they may overestimate the likelihood of certain events2.
  3. Pessimism Bias and Optimism Bias: These two biases are very commonplace, yet they seem to be complete opposites of one another3. The pessimism bias is a cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes. On the other hand, the optimism bias is a cognitive bias that causes a person to believe that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others3.
  4. The Self-Serving Bias: This bias leads us to blame our failures on the circumstances around us, yet give ourselves full credit for our successes4. In poker, how many players do we know (including ourselves) who blame bad luck for our losses? Yet, when we win, we give ourselves, and our skill, full credit4?
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Thank you and congratulations @Younguru , on your first post. I agree the way we think and make poor playing decisions happens at times results in negative thinking. I also believe it is due to not applying 3 principle’s. The 3 principles are Patience, Discipline & Faith in every card, hand and game, Thanks again & gl at the tables !

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Thanks you for your gracious comment. I am very impressed by your penetrating insight - you are spot-on in your assessment of me. Thanks for the affirmation…

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Great topic post @Younguru . I am a big believer in reviewing my self for everyday. Did I help someone or miss the opportunity to do so ? And how can, I improve my poker play by reviewing the day’s games and mistakes. Hope I never stop learning.

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This is why I always fold aces and kings pre flop

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Thought this video below was interesting regarding year end self-review.

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Nice post Younguru, I play here because most ppl on site are great people, & many very good players. Considering you have good days & bad, I feel the site is fair. Remember it’s free so no one is going to lose their money if they get beat by someone who wins with trash.

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It’s nice to hear a vet say the site is fair. I get so tired of people complaining about the RNG, which has been audited and certified to be truly random. Online poker can be frustrating…

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