I had a weird session last night where I really caught the nuts several times so it got me thinking about the optimal way to extract value when nutted (I’m talking highest flush on a not paired board and boats on somewhat wet boards).
It’s a 1k/2k ring game and I’m having a hard time nowadays to determine who’s a reg/TAG/LAG who’s a NIT (though I’m not sure I ever met one on RP) and who’s fishy though usually I consider capped players to be fishes and aggro players to be on the aggro tardish spectrum rather than LAGish (it might be time for a HUD? meh…).
Anyways first hand, I had no info/read on FYDA238, my hand was 6h6c and I decided to set-mine given my position and the limped pot:
I caught my 12,5% flop nuts so I was happy and valued hard which is pretty standard for me (above 80%) since there’s a flush draw and a Jx. Caught the mega nuts on the turn since only 2 combos of J6 beat me and JJ wouldn’t play that way both pre and post flop.
And here’s my question:
I valued hard again on the turn and I wonder if it’s optimal now at 1k/2k. Players are generally speaking better and paying attention to pot odds. So could I have gotten the flush draw part of his range with a third of the pot bet giving him great odds to continue (given the IO he thought he had)?
I don’t like to check here because some of his range would check back the turn and riv and fold to my riv bet at a higher rate than paying the small sized turn bet (mainly weak pocket pairs).
Then if he does call the turn and the river goes banana like a heart I’ll might get all his stack in. If he had a trip or a lower boat (only 3 combos of 22) I can still extract some value out of it.
What do you think? I’ll post the other nutted hands later
You bet too much on the turn. You made a pot size bet which looked like you had trip jacks. FYD was probably on a drawing hand. I think a bet 1/3 to 1/2 of the pot might have got FYD to call. IF FYD had nothing, you wouldn’t get a call on any bet.
+1 on Dan6176
Even not bet on river.
But, this case, JJ could end up boat. So many pp play they low cards. So, in the end, you make him fold, I dont think he got the 3rd J, and based on that, he probably wont raise or call any. The other part of the win, you did not have to show.
I agree with Dan here. As someone who doesn’t have as much savvy with percentages off-the-cuff as you, if I’d been in FYD’s shoes, I would’ve worked on the assumption that you had a Jack with a higher kicker than the 2 or the 6 on the flop.
I agree with yall, I think the Jx would have definitely called a third of the pot and the flush draw part also because it makes sense mathematically and he would have had massive IO if I were to be the Jx (like KJ/QJ/TJ). I can even drag a low-mid pocket pair. Then play poker on the riv.
This being Replay, players are rarely going to fold a flush draw even to a large bet, even on the turn, and even when the board pairs. By betting big you make them overpay for it. Sometimes they fold; so be it; in the long run it is +EV to bet big against draws on Replay. Also, Jx is never folding here. Again, this is Replay, so bad players will overvalue their trips and good players will think you are overvaluing something else (like a medium pocket pair). Your bet is positive value in the long run.
I only check back if a player is a super aggrofish who only puts in chips when they are the aggressor. Otherwise, I always expect players on draws or with strong (but not nutted) hands to overvalue their hands, so betting big is the way to go. Decent players with showdown value aren’t going to put many more chips in the pot anyway, especially in position.
The only time I would consider disregarding my previous points would be against players in the top 150 or so. They are maybe a meta-level higher in thought than most players here, so it helps to be a little tricky, but even then betting for value is usually the right idea. This is a very typical hand. Sometimes you get stacks in with the nuts, sometimes you don’t. That’s poker, and you did well to get a call on such a big bet on the flop. The J on the turn was the perfect card to bet again for value because it was possible your opponent hit trips.
I’m not trying to make him overpay a draw, I’m trying to help him get a great price to catch his draw and have my massive IO. Obviously if he didn’t catch his flush he wouldn’t pay me on the riv so I’d have missed value on the turn and I’d also have missed value if it hit but the guy had Jx. I wonder if the IO is sufficient given he had only a 17% chance or so to hit his flush (I had a heart). Probably not but I’d like to know how to calculate that.
Otherwise I agree on your general value printing mindset it’s just that it got me wondering if it was optimal or not.
button + suited combo blocker I open raise to get folds
I don’t but I catch a flush draw on the flop so I bet half to get folds again and because it also gives me a great price to catch my draw (pretty standard so far).
the turn is a somewhat low card so I don’t think I can generate enough folds here given he called my cbet, wouldn’t make sense to fold now.
The river hits the perfect card for me and my opponent is so kind as to bet half pot so he’s definitely interested and not too scared of the flush draw hitting
His range is either Ax (probably two pairs) or a set or a lower flush
Then I thought I’ll raise for value 3x (which is fairly standard plus it was a pot size bet) because his Ax range got in there (he’d call a lot) a set (77 or 99) might 3 bet me but would at least call (22-44) and if he hit his flush he’d probably jam it anyway so easy call for me.
My question is : should I raise bigger given that his Ax range is about the same size combo wise as all the rest (sets+flush draws) and he might call a 4x or 5x with Ax to begin with?
Quite the opposite of the previous hand, should I value harder in this case?
I valued hard on the turn when I caught a boat, I was only beat by 2 combos of KT (KK out given pf action). Should have I given a fair price to catch a flush or was it the right play to pot it?