Dude, this was a horrible play. If you’re flatting 3!’s from the bb at these stack depths with this SPR you can NOT fold when you flop a set or you will be way over exploitable which is exactly what happened here and honestly isn’t the first or last time Maria has or will be punked late in tournaments when all the money is made. It’s hard to get this deep and you just simply can not fold away that much equity. I don’t know what the number but I’m sure she gave up $10K plus in equity and is probably more like $100K plus. She had 200K locked up in this hand already and she went home with 200K. Folding here cost her a great opportunity to take this tournament down. I don’t know what the pay structure was but I’m sure the winner was paid over 1M. Vanessa almost folded AAA77 in the WSOP ME last year I think in the first level but she made the call because she lost to exactly one combo but there was one combo that she beat which Gail would have played the same way, Ah7h. Vanessa said if she had the Ah in her hand she would have folded A’s full but with her equity in the pot being 50% she had to call. Debatable for sure whether she had to call but she did. Maria had to call and she didn’t.
Cool - just LMK where you want to start. I sent you a PM with some of the stuff already.
BTW, that hand between Selbst and Baumann was unreal. I’ve watched it over and over again. Hearing Selbst work it out in her head in real time was just scary - “Ah7h is a thing” so she called.
This alone is very exploitable. For example let’s say there is $100 in the pot and it’s on you HU with V. You c-bet range say 1/2 pot or $50. You need your bluffs to work 33% of the time to show instant profit. V only needs 25% equity to continue profitably but has to meet an MDF of 33% in order to not allow us to show that instant profit. At 46% fold to c-bet they way over fold. At LLSNL and micro stakes, and Replay for that matter the population is defending no where near enough.
That 54% continue range consists of pairs+ and their strongest draws, given a 20% preflop range (when the flop contains 1 or fewer high cards). Oddly enough, the 50% c-bet doesn’t get as many folds as it should because everyone expects to see it coming. If you move to a 66% size c-bet on the flop, you tend to fold out the high cards and A-highs. This bet size needs to work 42% of the time so you are still auto profiting.
Populations at these stakes don’t know MDF from KFC. They are thinking “I have a pair/strong draw or I don’t have a pair (or better)”. Since they will not know what their mistakes are or why they are making them, we can exploit them without fear of being counter exploited.
FYI, the MDF vs a 50% pot c-bet is 67%. I think you mistyped and used folding % instead of defending % in your example.
Agreed. The stats that I have from Replay players have an even higher number folding to cbet than this - more like 65%.
One thing to think about is that here there are many more multiway pots than might be considered normal - and in this case having a lower defense frequency is going to be more correct.
I know that this is off-topic, and and for both that and the risk of breaking up the flow of ideas, I preemptively apologize.
That said, @1Warlock, @love2eattacos, and @dayman, this is the type of analysis that keeps me coming back to the forums. Explaining and emphasizing how high-level players think about the game using statistics helps me up my game IMMENSELY. People pay good money to learn this stuff from poker coaches, and you’re openly sharing it for free. Thank you.
Trolls who post that people on Replay Poker don’t know how to play need to be introduced to this thread.
I don’t know. Here is a hand I played tonight which was remarkably similar. I played it differently from Maria, and it was I who shoved and dared the opponents to continue, and I was extremely lucky when one called and turned over a slow-played set of jacks.
This is what happened next.
This was the first hand of a 1 million chips buy-in tournament, so all stacks were equal.
Those are some strong river skills right there @MekonKing.
hear hear!
A little bit more for comparison on these population stats.
| Stat | Small stakes cash | Replay |
|---|---|---|
| Fold to c-bet | 46% | 64% |
| Fold to turn c-bet | 25% | 45% |
| Fold on river | 20% | 55% (fold to river cbet) |
| Raise river | 8% | 6.5% |
Small stakes cash numbers are from @1Warlock above in this thread. Replay stats I have collected from a few thousand hands mostly at 20k/40k and 50k/100k ring.
Yep, got those numbers transposed. Not as bad as C-bet 850K into 240K with the intention being 85K but hey, numbers shouldn’t lie… my bad. 
Good eye @1Warlock Cheers.
I agree with all of this but against a lot of these players I like to down bet close to range on tons of textures. Keeps me wider and gets me to the turn and river much more frequently where I think I hand read pretty well and can usually figure it out. I x/c and x/r raise more vs the known stations though.
Props @love2eattacos if you went through 2K hands to extrapolate these stats. Your boy is dedicated.
It can be super-profitable to take weaker ranges at least to the turn. Certain boards lend themselves well to this approach where you can fire 33% on the flop to keep just about everything in and then go 66%+ on favorable turns and just rip it away. I like to mix in an occasional overbet on the turn as well (not all-in). People are just not used to seeing that play, except on the river. They tend to overfold when faced with something they are unfamiliar with.
There are so many possible profitable approaches to the game. The ones I mentioned here were just the most obvious and simple to visualize based on some very basic stats. The point is that most players will not even address the most glaring areas where they are being exploited. Anyone willing to do just a little work can therefore find profits in this population.
What I want to know is how does the “three outer” win way way more than 20% of the time on this site as opposed to in the live casino. Not to mention the plethora of runner runners to get straights, flushes, etc to win hands…I play a lot in the live realm and in a tournament or cash game jacks paired vs 10 Q off or suited wins 80 % of the time, not here the queen will hit more than that 20%.
It doesn’t.
The best explanation is that you have far more players chasing those “three-outers” on RP than you would at a casino. When you have six players to a flop that comes K96 rainbow, one player has 87, another has 75, and a third has JT, when you hold AK you aren’t trying to dodge just one straight draw. If you choose check “for deception,” or merely minbet, you’re giving each of those straight draws a good reason to stick around and see if they hit. Then, when the “miracle” turn or river brings an 8 and gives 75 a straight, sure, for that one player he hit a three-outer. However, look at all the other cards that would have brought a straight - three 5’s, three tens, and four queens. Dodging all ten of those outs across two streets is only going to happen about 57% of the time. Add in any flush draws, and your top pair is looking to dodge even more outs.
In order to avoid this, you need to bet heavy and deny equity on early streets. Players at low, medium, and often high stakes on this site haven’t learned that lesson. They call way too loose preflop, and bet too small before the river. Yes, that means they won’t be investing much in vulnerable hands (why should I bet KK when the flop always seems to bring an ace?), but they don’t understand how it makes them vulnerable to weaker hands catching up.
Don’t want to get caught by competitors catching weak draws on turns and rivers? Deny equity by betting in such a way that your opponents have the wrong odds to call.
Find a good online poker odds calculator. QTo has about 29% equity preflop against JJ of the same suits; QTs vs JJ with no overlapping suits has closer to 33% equity. That’s quite a bit more than 20%.
I’ve bet heavy and they still call. I go all in and they still call. I can see getting beat in a 4 way pot but in a heads up situation where I have jacks paired and a bozo calls my all in with 10 Q off or suited or a similar situation the bozo hits the three outer a lot more than 20% of the time on RP as opposed to at Foxwoods. That smells real funny to me. If this site wasn’t free I’d stay away, far away.
I just checked and yes it is in the 30% range, I don’t know why I thought it was lower.