This was definitely an interesting hand in how it played out, but I have qualms with many of the decisions that led to showdown. Let’s take things action by action:
PREFLOP:
Not sure what Chuck55 or jimbil are holding, but in early position facing seven other players, you need to bet or fold. Limping weak holdings is throwing away chips - it’s going to be tough realizing your equity out of position if you hit the flop, and you’ll probably have to fold facing substantial aggression from players after you.
When it gets to grant654, he’s in an interesting spot. Facing two limpers with low-to-mid suited connectors, again, bet or fold would be the way to go. I’d probably fold 30-50% of the time, a bit more often early in a tournament, and bet big - probably around 5BB, or 200 chips.
I can’t comment on flogjr’s hand, but similar to the earlier players, he needs to bet big or fold. Instead, he throws away his chips.
Area51mutant is in a similar spot to grant654, except he’s going to be in position post-flop. Still, with so many people entering the pot in front of him QJo probably isn’t the best hand. Personally, I’d let this go.
justducky folds off his small blind - probably the correct decision, and the first one I’ve seen so far.
In big7slick’s shoes, I like the check. Betting into so many people would inflate the pot, and it’ll be hard to play postflop, since 3’s will only rarely improve, and you’re out of position. Checking here disguises the strength of your hand. With a more premium holding (tens or better, AQs, AK), I’d bet somewhere around 8-10BB, but with 3’s a check is your best bet. Nice job.
FLOP:
big7slick checks, as he should with all his holdings. This could induce other people to build a pot behind him, which he can then check-raise. I’d be careful about constructing a leading range here, since he could have a lot of potential straight draws - QJ, QT, JT, J7, T7, T6, 76, 75, 65. If he’s betting all of those draws, along with his sets, he’ll be way too draw-heavy, and put himself in a tough spot should anyone re-raise behind.
For that reason, I’m not a big fan of chuck_55 leading out here. I don’t know what he had, but if it wasn’t strong enough to continue on later streets, he probably should have checked his option.
Jimbil wisely folded.
In grant654’s position, I would’ve like to see a re-raise to around 800. He has an outside straight draw, and a backdoor flush draw. There are 9 such hands he could have (JTs, T7s, 76s), with 9 sets (three combinations each of 3’s, 8’s, and 9’s) that he could be betting for value. That would put top pair or an overpair, or even two pair hands, in a tough spot, while driving out most of the other draws.
Area51mutant should probably let this one go at this point. He’s facing a pot-sized bet with a call, and there’s still a player left to act. He has an inside straight draw with no flush potential, and two overcards. There are only four turns that will make him feel good (the tens), but it’s possible that one or more of them is held by one of the earlier actors that is trying to make their own straight, and three of those four will bring backdoor flush potentials. With the action in front of me, I’m not even sure I’m still good if I pair up one of my overcards. QJo should have gone into the muck here.
I really like big7slick’s decision to check-raise here. He has one of the strongest possible holdings on this board, and there are a lot of potential drawing hands, as mentioned before. However, if he’s going to check-raise, he needs to bet much heavier. A min-raise does basically nothing - nobody should be folding off their equity in the face of a 20% pot bet when they already called a much larger (proportionally speaking) bet. I’d raise to somewhere around 1100, setting up a turn/river jam.
Everyone else calls, as they (probably) should given their earlier decisions, and we go to the turn.
TURN:
Things get interesting here. There’s now a lot of straight potential on the board, a backdoor diamond flush draw is brewing, and big7slick still holds bottom set.
I don’t hate big7slick’s decision to lead out here, but I do question the size. His stack is less than the size of the pot - just get it all in, since you’ll be calling off any re-raise anyway. With the change to the board texture, I probably would have checked, calling any raise, including a jam, since I’d still have decent equity with my set.
grant654 should definitely be re-raising all-in here. He has the little end of the straight, and his hand won’t be getting any better, so this is the best he can hope for. Well, that, and that nobody behind him has him beat, and that the board doesn’t pair and turn sets into full houses…
Ditto Area51mutant. He’s got the nuts (at this point); an all-in call is trivial.
Facing the re-raise, big7slick is still right to call. He’s got the equity to make a boat and invalidate the straights that are out there, and there’s always the possibility that someone was trying to pick up the pot with JT or QT that made top pair.
This hand brings up an interesting point about tournament poker in particular, and poker in general. You can’t be afraid to get it in when you’ve got the best hand, even if turns/rivers may give the pot to another player. At the turn, everyone should be putting their stacks in the middle. That means that two players are going to get busted out of the tournament. It sucks, but at the end of the day, you’re playing to win, and give yourself the best possible chance to double or triple up and make a run at the leaderboard. You can’t do that when you play scared. Play with appropriate bankroll management (don’t blow your entire bankroll on a single high-stakes tournament) so that you can ride out the variance that is inherent to tournament poker.
On the flip side, when you don’t have the cards, get rid of them. Quit setting chips on fire by making weak preflop decisions, and compounding them with bad postflop decisions. I’m looking at you, Chuck55.
[fin]
