about the 4bet or call question, it think both of you make very good points. i probably lean towards warlocks points about being OOP and erasing the middle hand. but obviously i don’t know how strong your read about gallaxhar was. however if you really had a super strong read on him he would fold hands like high pairs and AK. i probably might lean towards calling anyway. but even if he’s that good to know this, he might have known you could have a light 4bet range as well.
long story short, unless your read on him was really super strong, i would still stick to the 4bet, but it probably will be a small 4bet. that way you either kick the “bad” hand of the other player out and make it still very tempting to call for gallaxhar even if he expects to be beat. or the caller might even decide to play with something like QQ. and you will get an even higher pot in which you are the big favorite.
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however i have seen one thing that hasn’t been mentioned yet. you decided to call the flop. since gallaxhar was already committed the most logical reason i can think of is that you wanted to extract more value from the caller. but while it’s usually a good strategy to milk the caller, i wouldn’t have done it on this flop. of course he might have a hand like A9 or TT+. but there are probably even more broadway hands with clubs in them, especcialy since you didn’t had the nut blocker (Ac). and according to the fact that there was already a raise and a call on a low flop while there was a 3bet pre with a call, he might expect some overpairs already, so there is probably a higher quantity of draws that might have called there then there are overpairs. however i do like the check to trap him on the flop, since he was the aggressor and could very likely have an overpair, the odds are very high he will bet (like he did)
long story short: since the third guy called twice preflop and you didn’t have the nut flush blocker (Ac) there are probably too many draws in his range. so i would much rather check-shove the flop instead
Agreed, particularly if you’re going to jam out-of-position on the turn. There are too many “scare cards” out there - a 5, 8, or 10 would make four cards to a straight, and any club could bring a flush, so you’re going to need to make a difficult turn decision about a third of the time.
When your plan is to put your opponent all-in after any safe turns, why not check-raise on the flop, denying draws’ equity?
I’m not one for the statistics of how much to bet based on the stacks or the pot size. I’m not dismissing it, it’s that my brain isn’t wired that way.
First, before I sit down, I look at the table. Here, three of the players were ranked in 7 digits and the other two were mid 6. Table is 1 to 4k buy in. Which is medium stakes I think? Basically they all had most of their bank sitting at the table.
So what am I thinking? This will be an expensive and reckless place to play but also potentially profitable. I sit down and play a few hands mostly folding before or just after the flop.
I’m in for 20 chips and dealt 4s7h. Immediately I’m raised 40. Normally I’d fold right then and there but this table is reckless and I knew going in it would be expensive because they’re all playing super loose. I see the flop and now I’ve got two pair. Nice. I gently raise 20. I’m raised 170. It’s possible that he has 7s7c but given his style of play I’d expect a much larger raise with three of a kind. It felt to me like a bully move. Others are in so I double it. I’m called by two.
The next card gives me a full house. Patience pays off. So now the trick is playing out the line- keeping them in, not scaring them off but maximizing the haul. I go half pot and lose one more. River drops and I bet the pot, essentially ‘all in’, and I’m called.
My point is I have no idea if the amounts of my bets were justified by the stakes or the pot size. I’m not a quant. I was looking at the players and intuiting from their previous play and the rudimentary info I had from looking at their profiles and bank that if I was patient I might profit. That’s not something you can put on a chart but, for me, it’s the thing I love most about playing poker.
As Big Blind, but in a game “known” to be loose, your first call was a little chancy, but not unreasonably so. You were looking for–and found–a good situation. The raising opponent could have had 8-8. but it seems unlikely. 7-7 and 4-4 are even less likely, and if he/she raised on 6-5… I think you did it exactly the right way. Bravo!
If he was sitting on 3 kind or straight after the flop and only testing the water with that next bet, which given his style of play was unlikely, but still, he definitely would have ramped up the stakes more after I raised him but he just called. Yes, I could have been suckered.
But I’d been carefully reading the play at the table. I remember teaching my son to drive. He’s at the wheel and we’re behind a car on the highway. I said to my son, “That driver is lost. He doesn’t know where he is.” My son said, “What? How could you possibly know that?” I shrugged and said, “I dunno, just a feeling.”
The car gets off at the same exit as us and when pull up next to them at the red light the driver’s wife is busy with a map unfolded in front of her and there’s a frantic discussion in the car (ok this was 8 years ago before everyone was told where to go by their phone). My son looks at me like I’m a witch/clairvoyant.
It’s all about body language, it’s reading a ‘tell.’ Posture, driving or betting style people will give eventually themselves away if you’re sensitive enough to reading it.
I did get the right cards. I’ve done the same thing other times and stayed dry for so long I had to bag it as it got too expensive.
Watch this and tell me what you would have done. I though that my opponent, especially from late position, could be calling all in with 88 to JJ and that suited connectors would be a better favorite and the risk was worth the reward. What would you have done and what did you see that maybe I didn’t?
Based on that one hand? I wouldn’t have called. Maybe you had a sense of his play and figured it was a bully move- because even with the A kicker it was a ridiculous bet. It worked for him that time but the hand could have easily gone your way too imo, you were one diamond away from a flush. It didn’t work out that time. Win some, lose some?
He’s got just under 1.5M in chips now. He’s been playing since 2015. His ten biggest pots won during that time equal over 7.5M chips. Do the math and you can see he loses a lot more than he wins. Which is what I’d expect see from a bet like that.
Now looking at your chips and biggest pots I see a similar pattern though. You’ve got 31k in your bank. In the one month you’ve been playing you’ve won and lost nearly 870k. Win some, lose some?
I have a very simple strategy. I try to leave a table once I’m ahead even if it’s only 10 chips. It doesn’t always work and it’s harder after I’d had a few glasses of wine but I’ve tried to make slow but steady progress building my bank. My discipline is that once I reach a personal threshold, say when I hit 500k, I made sure I didn’t make any bets that would put me under that. Then I set a new benchmark.
(yes, it’s true, I look at players’ stats to get a read on their playing style)
of course i don’t know what his image was on the table, but i don’t think KQs is a good hand to call an all-in with. KQ is behind every pair and every Ax hand. in other words you are behind almost everything that should have been into his shoving range. maybe smaller pairs would be slightly +EV because of all the antes and of course the blinds. but i still wouldn’t risk it because you still have all the Ax hands in his range. and you are denying yourself all the extra fold equity because you aren’t shoving yourself.
as for the shove: with AJ and 8 BB’s, i think his shove was very right, especcialy in late position.
have to say i’m not sure if that’s really a good strategy. it means you leave when you’re ahead and stay when you are behind. at the same time it means you keep going after you get losses meaning it will result in big losses and only small wins.
of course i don’t know if it actually works for you, if so feel free to ignore my comment if it does, but at least i could warn you if you weren’t aware.
Well, I was being a little flippant for sure but I get your point and it’s a good one. My strategy is much more complex than that in realty. It’s so complicated even I don’t understand it much of the time. I’ll leave a table because the doorbell rang. Or when there’s a player who’s being an idiot… unless the idiot seems to be happy to keep giving me more chips, then I’ll stay. And when I say I leave a table, it’s often to move to a new one with players who haven’t figured me out yet. I’m not much of a bluffer but when I’m a new player at a table, a dark horse, and I bet big on the second hand others might think I’m a bingo idiot, call my ‘bluff’ and be surprised. I like that.
All I’m really saying is I carefully watch my bank. If I’m not having a good run, sure, I know to stop, write it off and come back the next day. If I am having a good run I try not to blow it by overstaying my welcome because luck is fickle. I hate it when I double my stake with a couple of good hands only to watch it slowly get snatched away again. My experience is that I’ll pay small amounts to see my pocket cards over and over, then get one good hand which suddenly makes it all up. If I get two or three of those close together, I figure I’m done for the day.
As for it working for me? Meh, I pretty much break even, I suppose. If it weren’t for the free chips I’d have no chips at all.
i guess that sounds fine.
maybe the only thing worth adding here is that you can decide to leave a winning streak at your first or second loss. that way you don’t need to leave when you’re completely into a winning streak.
but like i said earlier, if this works for you it’s fine of course
I actually don’t believe in ‘streaks’ at all as far the deck is concerned, each next deal is the first one.
There may be times when I’m a little sharper or more tired (or even drunk) than others and the table might have players who are more clever or dumber than I am which can subtly alter, not the outcome of the hand, but the amount of the chips being won or lost.
Not being there it would be hard to say, but your winnings will go up when you quite chasing straights and flushes. A pair of 2s will always beat ace high.
the winning streaks i was referring to don’t have anything to do with lucky streaks. i meant winning streaks based on either you being into your A game, or your table being weaker then you.
in other words: i meant winning streaks are often based simply on you being the better player.
which i kinda why i meant to say that moving away from a winning streak could mean the next time you won’t be on such a good table as you’re now
One thing about Replay Poker I really like is the Replay part. You can go back to a hand and not rely on your memory. After this hand was done I was quite pleased with myself. Then the next day I went back, ‘Replayed it’ and slowly realized I’d totally blown the play.
I start out slow playing and even when I have KKK keep it moderately low key- I’d rather have some chips than scare everyone away. But then when I’m heavily raised on the river, ALL I DO IS CALL? That was a moron move. Ugh. He either was trying to bluff me and would have folded if I’d gone all in, I’d still have his chips after all, or he truly believed in his hand and would have matched me. Now instead of pleased, I’m upset with myself.
I think you played it well…I would have suspected possible pocket 5s with that big raise.
Of course it was a bluff but it could have been disastrous if u had gone all-in and your opponent had quads.
Fair enough. He’d been betting much heavier with much less, so it didn’t cross my mind, but you’re right he could have decided a bigger bet would have scared me off. Ok, thanks, I don’t feel as bad.
The next day I played stupidly but got stupid lucky. I’d been playing carefully up till then and happened to have a distracted ‘what the hell, I don’t care’ moment. I had zero business calling before the flop and even less staying in to the river.
I would have called with TT too…971 is a good sized bet at that table but it probably wouldn’t have made me fold either…that said I prolly would have folded on the turn when the opponent made an even bigger bet thinking my tens were no good.
As it turned out you hit big on the river and discovered your opponent was way overbetting…I say good call
I mean this is sickening! Looking back at the hand from a month ago I felt okay about the call from the shove. I definitely see the reasons why you would fold, he could be repping a hand where I’m REALLY dominated, AA, AK. But also, at that stage of the tournament, with less than 10 big blinds, I will normally see shoves 88+. I do need to be a little more careful with my bankroll, although I’m focusing a little more on MTTs when I have the time.
I would love to see what you would say on the hand I posted a moment ago… (https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/420985373/full-house-jacks-full-of-nines) I find times where I almost feel I should be more aggressive, but the table had been pretty weak in terms of post-flop play so I thought I would flat call AK and get some action. Perfect flop, yes, I’m worried about the flush draw but this seems like an obvious raise spot. Maybe even a shove spot to try and get a fold. I don’t really see JJ folding very much in this situation, even on a 11k shove. Really, this felt like a REALLY bad beat with runner runner nines.
I crunched some numbers and with one nine off the board, the odds of that happening are very interesting. In terms of equity, I’m not ahead at the start of the hand, but once the flop comes out, I’m ahead by about 10 percent. JJ has 10 outs, and is at 40% to win. The nine of diamonds comes out, giving jacks another diamond in a backdoor flush draw. I would have been a little less crazed had a diamond come out on the river. But ANOTHER NINE… nine-nine would be (let’s do some weird math) 3 outs/43 unrevealed cards times 2/42, which is .33 percent likely to happen, or about 333 to 1 odds. WOW. If that’s accurate, what a crazy draw.
