I’d like a review of this hand. I’ve made a dubious call on the turn, which I believe isn’t very profitable from a pure equity perspective, but I have a very well disguised straight draw, so I benefit from some implied odds here.
How much should that affect my decision on calling? Does the fact that I will be out of position on the river affect things? Does the third person in the hand complicate matters?
First off, the way you played the hand you barely broke even. If you’re going to call in that position you need to be betting and expecting a call of MORE than pot size on the river. You need to get an additional 40k from him after the turn just to break even. And that’s presuming you had all the outs available when some of them could have improved his hand.
You needed to put your opponent on a junky jack. Not AJ, not QJ, not J9, not JX clubs Figure he’s not bluffing with a flush draw, ISD, or AQ type hand etc. because you wont get anything on the river. Also have to pray he doesn’t have 66 or QQ. Though a good player wouldn’t bet the turn like that with those.
Other player in hand behind you of course complicates things because they can call making it easier to profit. or possibly re-raise. But I don’t think a jack is check raising the turn there, but a donkey might. If you were in position I would want the third person for sure because it becomes an easy in position call 3 ways, more implied odds and better pot odds.
Heads up I’d rather be out of position there because a good player is probably betting smaller for value targeting some pocket pairs a queen etc and folding to the size of a re-raise you need for profit.
Personally if I was making that call I would be shoving the river instantly with zero delay hoping it looked like a missed FD or also having JX. But my luck is they had 66 from the flop and I’d be snapped off.