Should I fold AA preflop?

Poker Strategy
21

I would be shoving all-in with premium pocket pairs when I’m short stacked like Aces, Kings , Queens (especially If I have less then 10 big blinds) and maybe I would go all-in with premium suited connectors like AK suited ,KQ suited depending on my opponents and their actions before me. If I’m UTG the decision for me to shove all-in is easy short stacked with those hand ranges.

For me it depends on the table and where I am chip wise. If I’m short stacked on a money or final table bubble I’ll be aggressive with premium hands. If I have a large stack I like to try to pick my spots and be aggressive in some situations like if my opponents in a hand are shorter stacked I’ll be aggressive when betting. Generally I consider going all-in when I have around 10 big blinds or fewer and sometimes if the situation is right I’ll go all in with about 15 big blinds.(For example if my opponent raises me heads up and is shorter in chips then me and I have a hand like KJ or better.) If I’m really short on blinds like only having 5 big blinds or fewer my range is very wide. I’ll usually go all-in with any pocket pair. I like to note my opponents playing styles and what they are playing primarily and by doing so It helps me make an educated decision that makes it more likely for me to win the hand.

Honestly I don’t have enough experience with EV and ICM to give advice about it. On Replay I’m usually just calculating how many big blinds I have at certain points during tournaments.

-Marc

22

OK, I tried out ICMIZER :smiley: I hope I’m using it right… it says that I should be shoving JJ+ and folding everything else. I assigned a bit more than a 20% range (66+,A2s+,A7o+,K8s+,K9o+,Q9s+,J9s+,98s+) to both the limper and preflop raiser so maybe if I instead assume they’re much looser then it’d recommend a wider shoving range.

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23

Yeah it was an experience. I won my seat in a series of freerolls, so all I had to pay was airfare.

Truth be told, it was intimidating. Very intimidating. And I’m not easily intimidated. 2,000 players at 200 tables, the lights, the cameras, the constant cheers of triumph and wails of agony… it was a lot different than sitting at home playing in my underwear.

@love2eattacos, that sounds about right to me. 20% sounds about right too, at least for the limper. Maybe go a little wider on the raiser. I don’t usually bother with ICM stuff because you can’t really use it “in the moment,” there’s just not enough time. Using it after the fact doesn’t do much for me because that specific situation won’t come up that often and I probably wouldn’t remember the numbers the next time it did come up.

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Thanks! That’s really good to know. It confirms that I’m a wimp on the exact bubble so that’s always nice to hear. I don’t totally get ICM so I’m not sure if there are any parts of it that can be argued with or not. For instance, how does it calculate fold equity? Wouldn’t the entire picture change if people were super tight vs players here that are mostly super loose? Part of the decision has to figure in what percent of the time you get folds, right?

The first few times I played live tournaments in my underwear it was a bit uncomfortable for me too. You get used to it - but the field never does :slight_smile:

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Clearly I am a wimp too. I suspected as much but had no idea how to analyze it which is why I started this thread!

I am clearly far from an ICM expert! But my understanding is that the tool is going to assume that the other players are going to make optimal calls based on their own ICM positions. So the BB, limper and original raiser will each call (or raise themselves) some % of the time, and the rest of the time they fold. The tool also lets you assign ranges that you think they will have for the action they’re taking.

In this particular spot my stack is so small that the original raiser especially would have to pay only about 2500 to call with 6500 in the pot. So they are going to be correct to call very wide even though my range should be very strong. They only need about 28% equity from a pure pot odds perspective, they have a very big stack compared to me, and there is that extra value in having the chance to eliminate one of the small stacks. If we know that the original raiser is super tight then my shoving range would presumably get a bit wider. I used up my 3 free ICMIZER calculations already today so can’t test it more right now.

One other thing that the tool isn’t calculating is that I KNOW that the micro stack on the other table is going out soon since they left some time ago. It only lets me put in their stack size.

It seems like one of those things where if you were spending a ton of time playing tournaments for actual cash it’d be worth getting familiar with. Over time you’d get an instinctive feel for the approximate numbers in most situations. But the time investment to do so would be quite large.

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26

I played a ton of small real money tournies without ever hearing of ICM, and did develop a feel for the approximate numbers.

I would ask myself what he was trying to accomplish with his min raise there. His raise size, from that position and from his stack size seems pretty polarizing to me.

He either had a premium hand and was trying to tap you in so he could lower the boom and get the limper to fold, which gets him heads up with a fair amount of dead money in the pot, or…

He had basically any 2 cards and was leaving himself room to get away from the hand if the limper came over the top.

His 1/2 pot on the flop doesn’t give us much insight, though with a possible flush draw and a possible (though unlikely) straight and/or possible open ended draw (55, 5X, 89), one would expect him to shove any overpair. It seems likely he would make that bet thinking that flop would miss any hand the limper was likely to have.

Turn brings a queen and a check, he shoves. Did he have a hand like AQ or KQ or even QJ or Q10 or was he just betting the limper couldn’t continue? Without knowing the player, it’s hard to say really.

What do you think would happen had you shoved there?

I would expect the limper to fold a lot of the time, unless he was trapping with a big pair hoping the button would raise. Then again, a lot of players don’t seem to know the difference between cards and magic beans, so maybe his limpers would sprout into something he could call your allin with. With the original raiser behind, that seems to be a suicide line to me though.

I think the button folds a fair % of the time too, at least if he was just testing the waters with any 2 cards. I usually suspect a min raise from the button is fairly light or trying to tap with a big hand. Like I said, fairly polarizing.

Bottom line, I don’t see any reason to fold aces there.

Anyway, that would be my “non-ICM” analysis.

27

Its deff a shove on the pocket aces being it is a 20k tourney and your profit on 9th or 10th place is virtually nothing, you have to go for the win and not 10th place and that is the hand and time to do it cause u will at least eat the blinds up if everyone folds and at most u will only get 1 or 2 callers at this point in the tourney and thats what u want 1 or 2 at the most to take the pot. pocket aces post flop is a different story and most likely u will have to fold by the turn or river with 3 or more in the hand which will be that many if u dont shove pre flop. the last thing u wanna do is slow play pock aces, especially on the bubble.

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28

@love2eattacos , … “should I fold AA preflop”

You reference “the cash bubble” … SunPowerGuru is correct 90% of the time. Shove it - like you own it and don’t look back. Remember SPG won’t have the table image as wimpy near this bubble, and his shove will hold more weight. If your table image is poor, your shove will get more callers than normal, and all of them might spike the flop. I can see however that other 10% of the time you fold your Aces… I do think table image, plays a part in this or any decision to play/shove or fold…

We all know ( or should ) that once that bubble bursts, usually within 3-4 hands 3-4 more ppl bust out because they "take thier shot: and a Stack takes them out. 3-4 more potential spots up for t-pts is bigger than any small cash situation. If you know any more spots up, will allow you to win or move up enuff to make those bonus chips worth it, then yes you fold.

If on the other hand I’m in a stiuation where its 1 away from a final table, then its a much harder question. Once you move to the final table, you may see 4-7 more hands for free. At that point t-pts will be worth a premium and that aspect must be calculated even more.

Is it really ever good to fold AA perflop, not usually… I do think there are spots tho, that make it seem like folding is prudent. I’d rather have AKsuited to shove with personally.

Sassy

29

I have been thinking more about what these spots would be. How about this one?

Let’s say you’re in the final 3 of the WSOP main event. There is a $1.25M payout jump from 3rd place to 2nd place. You are the short stack with 2BB. The other two players have 150BB. You’re on the big blind and both players go all in ahead of you. You look down at your hand and see AA. Do you make the call?

Interesting. Why is that?

30

I think you can fold there.

31

I will keep this in mind next time this situation comes up :smiley:

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32

:thinking: No… Heck No… OMG NO !!! … Sure its a 50/50 that the leader kills the non-leader… and it is your best chance to tripple up, but unless I have millions already, thats a diceroll for you to snag that xtra 1.25m… sure the comentators are gonna be screaming at you on camera, I still think you fold there… Maybee you’ll see a 50/50 on ThePriceIsRight for a car, but for 1.25m…uhhhhhh NO !!! :sunglasses:

Many reasons… not to mention better flush/straight draws, and unless they have KK then usually you’re ahead in the kicker dept. While statistically stronger… pocket pairs have far less to draw to once behind ( usually ).

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33

Yeah, but they usually aren’t behind.

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34

Well, I wouldnt want to be the guy on television who was such a smuck that he folded Aces…

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When you get on tv, what type of “smuck” do you want to be described as? Perhaps Forum Troll would be appropriate? SMH

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I would like to be described as the smuck with lots of chips!

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37

I think you have to shove but for different reasons. Too many time I have seen the short stack triple up and then on the very next hand triple up again. That would leave you the short stack that passed up a chance to triple up. Just my 2 cents.

cm681

38

No need to get personal…

39

Pocket aces and I’m on or near the bubble?

Easy call. I’m shoving all-in if the tournament allows it. (Bankroll builder is pot limit pre flop so in those games I’ll try limping if I cannot go all-in.) Pocket aces, regardless of the number of callers pre flop is always the best hand possible. Sure, the flop can and will often kill you but I’m doing that with pocket ladies or cowboys too. You play the odds and hope random chance doesn’t kill you.

40

Yes…I have heard (one) player describe how he folded pocket aces under the gun in a money tournament (he was on the bubble) and I dismissed him as a player as I cannot imagine a serious player mucking AA preflop under any circumstance outside of the twilight zone