Big Hand on the Bubble

If you have a premium hand on the bubble (just a couple spots away from cashing) and you have less than 10 BB left, should you jam and hope it holds up? Did I make the right move here?

Yes, you got about 5BB left and your stack will be eaten by blinds anyway, so easy shove here.

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Imma, there are several considerations in this decision. Basically, it’s a coin flip that favors you a little bit. The problems are your stack is small and the blinds are coming. You have just enough to see the flop, OR go all in, OR fold. If you miss the flop or worse, if the flop favors an opponent, you’re dead.

I guess if it was my decision, it would depend entirely on my closeness to the $$. If 30 are being paid and you’re currently 29 of 31, I’d fold in hope someone else would bust in the next two hands. (Yes, of course I’d curse if a Q flopped.) If you’re #32 of 33, though, I’d go all in hoping everyone folds. If you win, that would give you enough chips to survive the blinds and antes while waiting/hoping for others to bust behind you. You’re on the wrong side of the blinds to gamble–if you miss, the blinds will eat you up. In this case, the flop crushed you. It’s a gamble either way.


Can’t say it was wrong but, I watched it a few times & think it was worth a try. If played out, after that flop with A-7 & a bankroll that size, I would be challenging for more chips & calling any raises or making some. so your only chance was if he folded or fold and pray for a comeback. Don’t know about him but, I would not have folded with that 2p and that bankroll. So don’t think you were wrong to try,
Also because I think the guy with A-7 is an idiot for calling you.
Luck took his side that time but, even a big bankroll can disappear fast by pushing in and relying on dumb luck with many players still in the game just because you hold an ace.
But I’m still new and maybe I have no clew. :laughing:
Just how it looks to me. Won my 1st 2 MTT’s in a row earlier today.
Thought you played well at the last table we were both at.


That hand wasn’t a coin flip - I was over 2 - 1 favorite that hand when we got it in pre-flop. Coin flip would be AK vs a pocket pair.

Play tournaments to win them, not to min cash.

You had no choice but to shove there. Shoving maximizes your fold equity, and, as short as you were, you don’t mind getting a fold in that spot. With less than 12 BBs or so, you should be folding or jamming. Yeah, there are a (very) few spots where you can do something else, but 95% of the time, get it in or fold.


First of all fold equity here is zero due to great pot odds for the limper. With ante push/fold should be almost always played around 9.5BB, not 12BB. And there is possible to have SB limping range, even at 8.5-9BB (with ante).

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Check solvers, dude, they do some limping or even minraising below 12BB eff. stack, even with ante.

Solvers are not designed for free poker sites.

Yes, you can limp or put in a small raise sometimes… like 5% of the time.

Actually, you can do whatever you want to do. I am suggesting a strategy that has proven itself for me here at Replay. There are always other valid approaches to the game.


Oh, and dude, you are arguing against yourself!

First, you claim that there is 0% fold equity, which is just wrong. Specifically near the bubble, you will find many players just trying to make the money. So yes, there can be some fold equity, and jamming maximizes it.

Secondly, you say solvers (rolls eyes) suggest push/fold at 9.5%. Unless I am mistaken, solvers use data collected from online tournies played for real money. Whatever Replay is, it’s not that.

So now we can use our noodles and combine those 2 points. If we have less fold equity here, how can we re-establish a reasonable amount of fold equity?

My huge brain tells me that we should play push/fold with more than 9.5BBs… say 12 or so!

For what it’s worth, my tournament ROI here is over 45%, and I have won 5% of the tournaments I have entered over the last 5 years. I kinda know what works. :slight_smile:

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Forgetaboutit !

a. 45% ROI over play money tourneys is garbage, I know how most ppl here are playing, 45% ROI is achivable as I now even in some micro non-turbo MTTs with 5-10$ ABI.
b. solvers provide Nash equilibrium solutions which guarantees almost perfect play in any tournaments regardless of buy-in
c. in that particular hand opponent who limped before hero has 21BB while hero has 6BB, fold equity in this particular hand is near zero.
d. Indeed, in vacuum around the bubble especially vs big stack effective push/fold stack can be as big as 20-25 BB.

I have often said that I’m not the best player on this site. Still, i would venture a guess and say that 45% is way above the vast majority of players here.

I thought you were serious until you said your solver would provide a Nash solution with the data given. Hahaha, you got me!

Just out of curiosity, what range did you assign to his opponent? What strategy? What about tendencies and frequencies? Or doesn’t any of that matter? And here I thought my Magic 8-ball was magic, and you somehow found a magic solver, well done!

A less than 6BB shove vs 21BB SHOULD have very little fold equity. You will find, however, that people here don’t play optimally, and yes, that does make a big difference.

Good luck at the tables.


@ImmaFish why did you go all-in preflop?

I can see a 1/2 pot ( a 1500 ) raise or a pot raise. If re-raised then I’d have gone all-in to let him know you had a high pair. Make him think about it.

But, after the Ace on the flop, if he raises, then FOLD but if he checks you also should check. Fold to any raise by him, which would be a very difficult decision on your part at this point. But, you did say you were close to the bubble. If the flop didn’t show an Ace or King, it’s all-in time.

If you were still in it after the 1500 raise preflop above you are pretty much all-in within the next two hands. But, at least you have another two hands to make the bubble.

I had 5 BB left - yeah I shoulda min-raised then check fold if an ace or a king shows up on the flop then get it in pre-flop the next hand when I have trash - great strategy! /s

I think you missed my strategy to make it past the Bubble.

I don’t play for min cashes (and most of the people who posted here agreed this is a no brainer shove with 5 BB’s left).

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I’m sorry for making my suggestion. I misunderstood the purpose of this thread.

I thought you were trolling when you asked “Why did you go all in preflop” because according to everyone else who replied this is a no brainer shove. My apologies.