I played a long session of 100k/200k +20 ante, and I finished down 10m (though I won the 1m mtt at the same time to end the session down 1m total). It was a frustrating session where I was mostly card dead, and on the rare occasions that I had JJ/TT/88 and opened, the board came with two overs and/or my opponent flopped top pair with a trash hand. This hand occurred 3/4 of the way through the session and is a spot I would ordinarily fold or occasionally 3-bet, but I saw that the original raiser was opening a lot (and sizing it too small) and a lot of players would come along, so I just called.
My hand is 75 of spades: https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/450690524
What other lines may have been better? Or do I just fold on the flop/turn? Key points, robdogg is pretty active and usually pretty straightforward. Enryu is pretty aggro and likes to 3-bet, especially OOP. Here is my thinking:
On the flop, it checks to robdogg and he bets small. The small flush draw plus under gutshot is a spot I would love to raise, but with an ace on board I am always wary because there are so many aces in his range and I don’t expect to get folds from many aces, so I decide to call, knowing that I am getting a great price. Bayern is very passive and calls too much. Then enryu raises, which is the real inflection point of the hand. He raises to 8m over 1.9m into ~10.4m. So I need to call 6.1m to potentially win a pot of 24.5m. According to an EV calculator I need 21% equity to be profitable (though that is obviously hot/cold equity that requires seeing 2 more cards). I decided I had enough equity and he was semi-bluffing enough of the time (although I do block a lot of semi-bluffs). I can see merit in all 3 options, fold, raise, or call because my flush draw could be no good, enryu can be raising with a lot of draws, including overcards+gutshot and robdogg usually only has Ax.
On the turn, my 5 pairs, which in retrospect is probably irrelevant, but in my mind it was effectively a blank for their ranges (unless enryu has 76s, which I block) and gave me more equity because a 5 or 7 on the river now beats Ax and enryu can have bluffs. When he bets 18m into 30.5m, he probably isn’t bluffing OOP into 2 players unless he has a hand like JT of spades, so I probably just need to fold because his bluffs include flush draws that beat me and his value is 2-pair+ that takes away some of my outs. But paying 18m to potentially win 66m was a price I couldn’t resist (I only need to 22 equity for a profit). I can see a case again for either folding, raising, or calling.
On the river I knew I was behind to at least robdogg, so when he shoves it’s an easy fold, but if he had checked I may have shoved based on the weakness my opponents showed. I would like to do some analysis on ranges to see if my calls made sense and hear any opinions about other lines to take. Folding pre is probably the best option…