I’ve been studying Fedor Holz’s free YouTube content lately (gold mine, btw!) and he raised this important point that I realize is a huge leak in my game.
When we suspect our opponent’s range is draw-heavy, it’s advisable to size up our bets—drawing hands will generally call bigger bets because if they hit, they are beating all the pairs. And of course, we would like to deny their equity.
Now we reach the river—praise the poker gods, the draws bricked out! Gleeful that the chaser has been duly punished, we now confidently push a third big bet into the middle… and they fold. Yay! We won the pot!
BOO. HISS. NO.
With this line, on the river we got 0 value, and were probably ONLY GETTING CALLED BY BETTER HANDS.
The board has been scary for two consecutive streets—the only (reasonable) players arriving at this river are those holding the draws that bricked out, or those sitting on a strong hand, ready to strike with the rest of their chips once the flush/straight fails to come in. By betting, we are forcing the missed draws to fold and putting more chips into the pot against the few hands that had us beat the whole way.
Checking this river gives the “chaser,” who is now in a fairly desperate position (having called two sizeable bets and still having no made hand), an opportunity to bluff. Given the action, they may feel compelled to use a large size, maybe even all-in! Now, when we call, there is a good chance we will be shown NOTHING and win an even bigger pot. Whereas if we go all-in ourselves on the brick river, the only hands that call are (mostly) those that beat us. The missed draws simply have to give up.
If you have a strong hand and put your opponent on a missed draw, check the river for value!