Actually, I’m looking for a detailed statistical analysis that can be applied to other situations that aren’t as clear cut as this one. I think we are getting closer!
N offense intended, but participation in this topic is optional, and we can have many topics going at the same time. If you really really want a new topic, start one. 
Your last sentence in your post said… Im calling there every time but is this a mistake? You asked a question and i am giving u answer and saying no it is not a mistake when the odds of winning are around 4 out of 5 times. So who cares about the 1 loss if u win 4 other times, it takes money to make money. If we would win 5 outta 5 on any given hand then poker wouldnt be fun or exciting not having the unknown factor in it. You presented several facts and scenarios to your topic but it all led to your final statement or question and i am just giving u the answer. I would do it every time in cash games too, if i have AA and only 1 other player is in the hand and goes all in pre flop, are u gonna fold your AA with 20k going in ? i dont think so, if u know someone who has or will do that then i would love to know. In rings u win 1/1 so u win or lose 20k. in tourney u lose 20k or have more chip leverage built up to be able to play more effective later on as blinds get higher, there is nothing worse than being short stacked going into the final table with very high blinds, that is grounds for self destruction and elimination. having as much chip leverage as possible going into the final table gives u the best chance of winning the tourney, so if u can get some leverage early on and buil momentum to get to the finak table and go in with chip leverage, then thats what the goal should be to get the highest ROI on your 20k . I realize this topic is diverting into several different directions with several different scenarios now which is fine, u can take it in whatever direction u want, which will be never ending, but i was trying to stick to the original post and give my exoerience and feed back in live cash rings,live cash tourneys, online rings, and online tourneys. i realize all 4 are different however whats not different is how i would play AA heads up pre flop on all 4 of those and that the odds of winning your AA are the same on all 4 of them.
First of all floridajetski, I do appreciate your input, and am not really arguing with you… from a pure poker standpoint, it’s a call every time. I’m never folding there. If I won’t get them in as a 4-1 favorite, I probably shouldn’t be playing poker.
I’m still not convinced it’s a great play from a tournament perspective though.
I’m starting to think ICM tools aren’t really designed for this kind of question. Yes, you can drive in a screw with a hammer, but that doesn’t make hammers the right tool to use.
Maybe there isn’t a clear cut answer. At this stage of the tournament, it might be that the margin of error for any statistical solution would make that solution meaningless.
I don’t know where to go from here, and maybe it is pointless to continue.
Never give up. Never surrender.
.
Personally, in a standard 150 player event which I can play regularly (20k cash or 20k Replay chips might be a factor) I get it in and try not to over think it.
I take the view that if everyone will find themselves in this spot in a tournament eventually, without having any unknown unknowns, calling is a decision which is at least as good as the decision anyone else makes. If that makes sense.
Perhaps the way to approach it is to list situations where it could / should be a fold and where it could / should be a call.
I call nearly always, especially if
I rarely fold, and only if
Rob
OK, I have resolved this, at least to my satisfaction.
If you will win 4 times and lose once, you end up spending 20k in “real” chips to buy 12k total in tournament chips. On a per tournament basis, you are spending 5k to gain an additional 3k in chips. If you are willing to pay the 20k buyin for 3k in tournament chips, you should be willing to pay 5k in “real” chips for an additional 3k in tournament chips.
If I could either buyin for 20K and get 3k in tourney chips or buyin for 25k and get double the chips, I would pay the 25k every time.
Sorry for dragging you all through what should have been an obvious choice.
Yes, that is a great way to look at it, in essence u are paying 25k to double up your chips instead of 20k, Many cash tourneys i have played have the same option where u can buy an add on they call it for a bit more buy in, and every player pays for it, if u dont then u have an immediate disadvantage in the game from the start compared to the other players. i think most good players would do this all day long. Another factor is the the 4/1 win ratio, when is the last time you were dealt AA in the 1st hand of a tourney 5 times in a row or even 5 times ever? Probably will never happen to anyone, so since that is so rare u should take advantage and go for it because the next time that happens on the 1st hand of a tourney might be years, and to have that happen and only have 1 player in the hand heads up even less of a chance.
Yeah I was kind of struggling trying to figure out the relative value of the buyin chips vs the tournament chips, but this now seems obvious.
Does it make sense to lose 20k buyin chips to win 3k tournament chips 4 times? Yes, it does, but you have to convert them to the same units.
You should lose 20k chips once and win the equivalent of 18.5k chips (20k buyin - tourney fee) 4 times, for a total win value of 74k. Since 74k-20k=54k and 54k/5=10.8k, your average is the value of +10.8k in tournament chips.
So yes, losing 20k to win 12k is +EV.
Also note that the 20k chips lost are more valuable than the 18.5k chips you win each time, which is as it should be.
Exactly, and keep in mind that if u place a decent position just 1 time out of the 5 then u will make your 100k buy for all 5 tourneys back and some, si i dont look at just 1 tourney ever, for the day,for the week, just the month i monitor, and as long as i am in the money and make a decent amount of chips from placing then all that matters is what i am in the money for over a month or whatever time frame u chose and what happens that day or even week is irrelevant to me knowing i will give up some buy ins on bad beats but placing high on the list or winning the tourney shows the true value of what your total buy ins returned to u as a profit. just placing in the bottom tier of 1 tourney out of 5 will most likely return your 5 tourney buy ins back and u also have the opportunity to place top 3 on 1 of your tourneys and win much more. Keep in mind this holds true for the higher peep tourneys than it does for low peep tourneys. Thats a whole other discussion in itself.
Extending the argument, for non-all in calls:
It should be decided on stack to bet size. If the stack is ten times the bet, you will call 1 to 1 odd hands, if its five times you will call 2 to 1 odd, if its twice the size, odd is 5 to 1, if its the same size (all in) odd is 10 to 1. On the other side if its twenty times, odd is 0.5 to 1, or 1 to 2.
If its two tournaments odds are divided by 2, for stack to bet size ten, odds will be 0.5 to 1.
This is giving a lower limit, you may not bet at this level, for example stack to bet size of 100, odd is 0.1 to 1 or 1 to 10 or 9%. You may not bet a 9% hand.
The general formula for odd n is
percentage position bet size 1
------------------- x ---------- x ---------------------
percentage payout stack size number of tournaments
Like this? My last 3 MTTs…
https://www.replaypoker.com/tournaments/2157549
https://www.replaypoker.com/tournaments/2135610
https://www.replaypoker.com/tournaments/2157880
dont see ur name show up in the 3rd tourney, but what does this have to do with calling a bet pre flop all in when u have aces? i bet u didnt have aces ur 1st hands other wise u would have posted the hand played. i guess im not comprehending what your point is that you are trying to make by posting these?? they give no examples of anything we are talking about in the whole thread and topic.
Doesn’t matter for the generic results because in SnG’s the 50/30/20 payout is always the same. However, you do have to include the buy-in+ fees in the cost and only the sum of the payouts in that part of the formula if you want specific numbers for whatever tournament you are playing in.
Because the calculations are based on a sum of probabilities, including the probability of finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd. In a winner-take-all MTT, it would only have to look at 1 place but when there are multiple payout spots, it has to consider that a player will finish in any one of those spots. It also considers the probability of the player finishing out of the money. A good example would be when there are 4 players left in a SnG, with 3 making the money. 1 guy has 70% of the chips in play and the other 3 have 10% each. The player with 70% of the chips has a higher likelihood of winning the whole thing but it is possible he will finish in any of the other spots as well. The %equity in the whole pot takes into account the sum off all possible outcomes.
This is exactly what ICM is used for, but only for the straight math. As we talked about earlier, it does not take into relative account skill levels or any other number of more subjective factors that a player needs to think about.
Bingo! The equation I added a few posts ago was meant to bring both parts of the equation to the same unit of measurement. You were comparing dissimilar units for a while.
Good topic.
Yes. Then we agree on that. I wasn’t seeing that at first.
Yes, this is why I suggested that the “straight math” of ICM is virtually worthless in this particular situation (at the 1st hand of a 150 seat MTT) We may have to agree to not agree on that point.
Yes. I did understand they weren’t the same units and was trying to figure out how they should be compared. Saying stupid things and getting corrected by those who know more than me helps me to to get things straight in my head, which we all know is almost empty!
Tournament play is far less forgiving than ring games, and 1 mistake can be your last. You don’t have time to do complicated analysis or use solvers, you have to boil things down to sound principals that you can use on the fly. “Over thinking” things here, where time isn’t an issue, helps me with that, and I hope others might find some small benefit now and then too.
The strategies I use are effective, but not perfect. I’m always looking to get better. I really do appreciate everyone who takes the time to help me work through this kind of stuff. Thank you all!
@SunPowerGuru - I think we agree on the practical applications for ICM at the early stages of 100+ player MTT’s. I think we just came at it from different angles. ICM is a tool that gives us data to consider. At some points in a tournament, like near the bubble, that data is more meaningful than at other times. Earlier in the game, it can still produce valid results but those results may be insignificant in relation to other considerations.