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Poker Strategy Hand Review
41

LOL, sorry, I was initially understanding that you had been arguing that I had been wrong to say that they did have direct odds to call. I hadn’t read your post as carefully as I should have. You were saying he did have adequate direct odds to make the call. We seem to be using rather different approaches to perform the calculation, mine is nothing more fancy than assuming that a half pot bet does not provide adequate direct odds for an 8 or 9 out draw, where you may have to fold to a bet on the turn, and so cannot count on seeing both streets.

It’s fair to point out that this old approach assumes the villain’s range is 100% ahead of you, which is not really reasonable. It’s also fair to consider that out’s to pair an over-card count for something, even if they will be illusory outs some of the time, and even though the King here was not an over-card, the 3 outs to a King also have some, non-zero value.

42

I would also point out that it is not a half pot bet, but 300 into 750 (so 300 to win 1050, not to win 900). While it is a small discrepancy, it affects the math and it also affects the range/read because I would put someone betting 1 bb into a 2.5bb pot on just about any two cards while I would put someone betting 1.25bb into 2.5bb on a more normal range. Granted, there isn’t much of a mathematical reason why 1.25bb shows more strength than 1bb, but in my experience it does come into play.

43

I looked at it again and thought it was exactly half pot. Are we looking at different hands? I was looking at the hand in Waidus’s very recent post.

44

Edit: Having watched it again, it looks like there is a 30 chip ante from each player, so the pot is in fact 750. Are we looking at different hands? It’s from Waidu’s post from yesterday. The blinds/antes are 150/300/30, so there should be 750 in the pot.

I got so confused looking at the Replay. Maybe there’s a way they could change it graphically to make it less confusing where the chips are coming from and going.

45

Weird, I just watched it again for a third time, and now I’m seeing a $300 bet into $750. I wonder what hand I had been watching earlier…

46

Here is one of my hands. My hand was AdQh. What do you all think?

Here’s my thinking after watching it again.

My open is pretty standard. I had been going back and forth between 2.5x and 3x, and I think the larger sizing is better (to make people overpay even more to call with marginal holdings).

On the flop villain leads for pot, which is pretty darn weird. In general my read would be that they have something strong like top pair+ and don’t want to risk giving a free card, but it can also be trying to generate fold equity for a draw. I’ve definitely seen people lead like this with a draw, but the sizing was what surprised me. Their exact hand explains the weird play because they have top pair and the draw, but they are likely to only get action from hands that are beating them (or maybe better flush draws?).

From my perspective at the time, I love the flop with top pair and backdoor flush draw, but the lead makes me concerned that I might be behind, so I think a call is pretty standard. With an overpair (especially with a diamond) maybe I should consider raising? With a set or top two I probably would raise. Not sure if those ideas are actually good.

The turn gives me the nut flush draw, so I am pretty confident, especially once villain checks. I believe my turn bet is a mistake, particularly the sizing, but my thinking at the time was that it looks like they have Qx or similar (JJ) that they don’t want to fold. I assume they would have made another bet with a set, two pair, or the flush. If they had shoved the turn I would have strongly considered calling. With 50bbs effective in a pot of 22.5bbs I am happy to go for stacks, but I think given the board texture and unusual line on the flop, checking behind might be correct. My thinking was that there are still hands that I beat like KQ/QJ/JJ or I could be free-rolling against AQ, but there are hands that beat me that could have slowed down on this turn (Q9 or sets).

The river is a brick and villain leads for half pot. I call and really expect to see Q9 or maybe a set (or hopefully AQ/KQ/QJ), but villain has Qd5d for the flush.

Honestly, I was happy to end up with chips after this hand because I would have called off my whole stack on the turn and probably the river as well. My opponent having the flush never really occurred to me because I block the nut flush (which is a decent proportion of possible flush draws), and because their line looks like the opposite of how a flush draw would bet (pricing themself out on the flop and then checking when they hit). When I semi-bluff a draw and then it hits I almost always continue because the draw is disguised. It really looks like villain hates the turn and is playing for showdown value.

I have to give them credit for creating a confusing line, though calling with Q5s OOP is questionable. Should I be playing TPTK more conservatively on the turn and river?

47

The pot sized donk sets off alarm bells for me. While you see this a lot a lower levels, it’s quite a bit rarer playing on elite stakes. I’m thinking at that point that Scrap’s range is quite polarized between very strong hands and some weak draws. With top pair, top kicker, and a back door nut flush draw, I don’t think you can probably fold on the flop.

When the flush comes in on the turn, many of the draw hit, which I think means your hand is now behind to most of the combos that made the original flop bet. This then gets muddied a bit when our sneaky villain checks. You have the nut flush draw, but do you have fold much fold equity against the hands ahead of you? I think I take a free card on the turn. When you do bet for a pretty sizeable chunk and villain calls, I think most of the big, non-flush hands are still in villain’s range, and your flush blocker is working against you, by blocking some of the bluffs that might still call (though I think most bluffs also fold to this bet).

When I watched the hand the first time, knowing you had AQ, but not knowing Scrap’s cards, I thought I would fold to the river bet… but I’m not really confident that is the correct play. I know this villain is not afraid to make bluffs on any street, and if you won’t defend here, where will you defend? But flipping that around, have you ever seen a bluff played like this? I admit, the whole line is confusing, but I do think you lost most of the bluffs on the turn.

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48

It just occurred to me to add: when do I tend to make hero calls? Well… it is typically when I have a marginal hand and don’t understand the line just played. LOL So I’m obviously torn. My gut reaction on the river really was, “have to fold”. But I think it is easy to argue for a call here, also.

49

Thanks for your analysis. I do think checking back the turn with a plan to call most rivers (or find a way to get stacks in on a 4th diamond) is the best line. Because I bet big on the the turn, it seems like I don’t beat much that leads into me on this river.

Hands like K9/J9/KT/JT/JJ with a diamond could turn into bluffs here. But villain can have lots of value hands like Q9/KJ/J8/99/33 in addition to the flushes. I doubt they would bet KQ or QJ this way, though AQ would make sense, though I block that. Maybe villain has some weird unexpected bluffs, which make calling better, especially given the preflop call with Q5s. But even if I raise two-pair+ on the flop, I have better hands to continue with like AA/KK/maybe TT, and my own flushes. Of AA/KK/AQ, which is the better call and is it better to call with a diamond or without? It seems like having a diamond reduces flush combos but it also reduces bluff combos. In retrospect, because there are value hands that beat me apart from flushes and the line looks weird for a flush, I would rather not have the ace of diamonds so a diamond draw bluff is more likely.

I think the tricky part with this river decision is the question: does villain really have flushes? My own blocker, plus the weird flop bet, plus the turn check all basically ruled out flushes in my mind. Plus, I kind of expected a shove on the river to polarize even more. If we believe villain has flushes as well as the other value hands, a fold is probably good, but I was definitely fooled by this line.

This is kind of secondary, but is villain’s turn check actually good? I think the bet on the pot was pretty polarizing, so villain should continue their line, since I called flop and it seems unlikely that I would bet the turn after their check. A board pair or a 4th diamond could put them behind or at least scare me off. I guess there is value in the deception since it looks like I have top pair+.

50

I could see myself checking in that instance. I might throw a player off my hitting the flush, or set up a check raise, but also I’m wary of the board going four to a flush, and i don’t have the nut. Lost a few pots like that. Often, the 4th of a suit falling is an automatic fold.
About the 300 into 750, the BB was probably 150. 2 BB opens and raises fit a little better in my tournament style of play than 3 BB, and I’m too lazy, and frightened of the timer to type in 2.5.

51

Would you make this call/raise?
would you call if you were V?
I’m Jh8h UTG

52

I’d prefer to focus on your decisions rather than calling out a random player in this forum. I actually don’t mind their play too much, though I would have done it slightly differently.

You limped 10% of your stack with a marginal drawing hand. If I’d been villain I’d probably just shove given the effective stack sizes, and you’d be forced to fold. As played, you have to call but it’s not a good situation, given how strong most players’ raising range is.

On the flop, villain has a decent flush draw and they can’t really expect you to have many made flushes because speculative hands aren’t limping here, so you should only have Ax flushes and be more pair/ Broadway heavy. I don’t like the flop bet because it probably gets worse hands to fold and better to call but the 2nd nut flush draw adds equity if you do have a hand like Kx. As it turns out you got it in good with the flush but the run out was unkind.

I would insta-muck J8s from utg here. As stacks get shorter drawing hands lose value while top pair type hands gain value. There’s also just less room to maneuver or bluff. I’ve been mostly playing cash games but since I returned to replay a few months ago I’ve played 11 mtts or sngs (100k buy in or higher) and cashed 7 times.

53

The runout was bad, but i’m used to brutal rivers. I suck out, too, now and then… sometimes, with hands i shouldn’t be playing, and sometimes opponents get knocked out. On the other hand, I don’t see that many rivers, and win most of the one’s that i do. I’m also no stranger to good hands vanishing before my eyes when the fourth of a suit hits. I’ve lost flopped flushes like this before. Not a bad beat post.
main thing i was thinking, after the hand, was the wisdom of my re-raise. Had I kept the third of my stack, left after the call, I could have folded if a heart turned,(I thought he had the A). If the turn was off set, I could shove, or re-access.
I don’t get personal, playing poker, beyond looking for something in someone’s playing style I can exploit. Even friends are V, when we play. I’ve played this hand just like V, Sucks when you miss, sweet when you hit. The reason I asked about V’s call had to do with the odds he was facing, with two streets left, opposed to one street left. My odds actually got better, since i knew about 5 hearts, and 99% sure about a 6th.
I ended up deciding to bury slow playing a flopped flush in the same grave i put slow playing big pairs. The slim chance i had of winning this hand would have been shoving the flop, maybe selling the flush, and putting the odds in play… Also, you are right about mucking J8s with the blinds that high, and the bubble closing in.

54

I think your reraise was good, no sense in waiting for another card that could scare away future action. Your opponent was pretty much pot committed anyway.

55

Here is an old and quite funny hand from me. Enjoy: Hand #633088044 · Replay Poker

I think, my main mistake was not shoving the flop or at least the turn and villain’s mistake was not betting enough on the river. What do you think?

56

Just like the previous hand, suited connectors aren’t great when you’re under 20bbs. If someone shoves you have to fold more than 10% of your stack. I do think you should just shove the flop to generate as much fold equity as possible.

I agree that your opponent’s bets don’t accomplish much.

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57

Given your hole cards, the flop and your opponent’s raises before and after the flop, I think your play was correct. His raise after the flop would’ve put most of your chips in play at that point and after all you did flop a flush. He had double your chip count and he would’ve gone all in if a heart hit on the turn or river.

Don’t beat yourself up over this. I think everyone would’ve played the hand the same as you did.

58

8d7c was a ‘see a flop for cheap’ limp. After that, I agree that my play didn’t make much sense, but I think I might have to stand behind the fold. Why did I call the former street just to fold when I hit? I’ll have to ask the idiot next time he shows up.

59

Nl100m hand hu oop:

1 Like
60

LOL… that’s another for the books that is probably just as hard to follow as your hand a while back against gg, though with roles reversed this time.