Another spot with bbkids

Poker Strategy Hand Review
1

If anyone remembers I posted a hand where I x/r all in covering bbkids with 7M pot and 11M back on Jh7c4c Ks with Th8h. Anyway, I find myself again with bb on my left causing me all kinds of trouble. He’s the only one 3! me and besides me, he’s the only one 3! at all. I have 4! bluffed twice and 4! for value twice (although both with AK suited). This man is a pain for sure. bbkids is the V in this hand with 15.5M I cover with 31.8M

Ayers Rock 2
50K/100K (6-max)
15.5M eff I cover

Folds to H in the CO with 3d 3s I open 310K, V 3! to 800K, blinds both fold I call. HU to the flop.

Flop (1.75M) 2d3c4h - H x, V 874K, H? I call. Debated the merits of H x/r flop with bb after hand was over. @love2eattacos, @1Warlock, @ValueFish, @WannabeCoder, @SunPowerGuru

Turn (3.5M) 6d - H x, V 1.75M, H call. H on the turn?

River (7M) 9d - H x, V 3.5M, H call.

Pot 14M to the winner.

I don’t know if I misplayed this hand or not by never putting in an aggressive action. My thoughts were bbkids is aggressive and capable of 3 barrelling bluffs as well as making big hero folds. He’s not just a bull in a china shop, he hand reads better than most of Replay. So like is it maybe more +EV to let him keep the lead on this kind of board and run out. I ask because I do not believe he is stacking of with over pairs on this kind of flop texture with this turn and river. I’m about as sure of that as I am with any of my reads on any players on Replay.

2

If memory serves, this guy rarely 3 bets. If he stays true to form, there’s just not that many hands he can have. The 800 seems a little light to me, but maybe it’s common in your games. I would suspect he wants a call. You can’t fold, I don’t see much sense in raising him back, so call it is. If he’s playing the way you think he is, he has way too many better pairs here for us to be happy, and even if he doesn’t have a pair, we aren’t thrilled.

On the other hand, he could just be tired of your aggression and be playing back at you with anything. People do switch gears, but let’s assume this isn’t the case.

The flop probably missed him, but he should know you might have caught a part of it. H checks and V bets about half pot. I would expect him to c-bet most of his range here. I doubt he has many small pairs and midling suited connectors in his 3! arsenal, A5s and 44 don’t seem likely (and he might check them back to trap you) It looks like your set is good.

You could check-raise him, but that might cost you overall. He seems to like leading, let him do it.

On the turn it’s pretty clear he has something. He could just take a free one, and doesn’t. Maybe he just wants to keep the lead and not surrender control, so he could do that with any of the broadway type overcards he could have. He could also have any pair 99+ or so and be trying to protect it.

If yer gonna do something, the turn is the time. I don’t really mind the check/call, but you have to raise there sometimes.

On the river, you had enough to showdown. A fair number of hands beat you, so I don’t mind the call here either.

I think he has a pair of some sort. TT, JJ, QQ, something like that. It’s possible he has a straight if he has made adjustments to you specifically. 999 is possible, as are a number of other hands. I’m thinking pair though.

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3

Preflop, I could see 4-betting as a bluff. Your hand is unlikely to improve, and you’ll be in an awkward spot out of position with a lot of overcards and an unimproved hand on most boards.

On the flop, I can get behind both check-calling and check-raising. I lean a bit toward check-call: the board misses your opponent’s 3-bet range pretty heavily, and you want to give him a chance to “catch up” by pairing an overcard or getting a back-door flush draw. I’m only really worried about a 5 falling on the turn, which would give an ace the wheel and beat our set.

The turn is pure check-raise territory. Here is where I think you really missed out. Yes, V may have A5 or 55, but you have decent equity against both hands, and could possibly represent 75s that opted to call the 3-bet and take a flop against a competitor known for 3-betting light. By check-raising, it puts a lot of pressure on overpairs and flush draws.

The river… is tough. Back door flush draws got there. 44, 66, and now 99 have a higher set. A5 and 55 still have a straight that beats you. If you’re correct in saying V wouldn’t triple-barrel with an over-pair, then you’re not only behind none of his value range, you also block none of it. It’s tough to see what bluffs he could have, too. 76s - just three combos, and would probably choose to check river with a medium-strength hand. Unsuited cards with the ace of diamonds? Not sure those would fire on the turn, except maybe A4 (2 combos). That’s very few bluffs, with a lot of value that beats you.

As much as it sucks when you make your set with a low pocket pair, I think I’d lay this down on the river. Facing a half-pot bet, you need to be right at least 25% of the time to call. Unless V is showing up with some wacky bluffs, you’re falling short of that mark.

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Edit: this should read “…behind ALL of his value range…”

5

No, bbkids is a relentless 3!er and one of the very few on Replay that can 4! and 5! light.

A5 is definitely in his 3! range, 44 he’s probably mixing sometimes, but mostly calling in position.

bb is hyper aggro at all times pre flop, he loves to iso and take pots away post flop. However there is some validity to this statement you made as he’ll typically play standard if he gets push back from most other players but adjust to me hence the light 4!'s and 5!'s.

Thanks for the analysis, so you just like a call on the river then?

6

Couple of questions:

  1. What is your range for calling a 3bet out of position vs this player type?
  2. Do you ever want to check-raise bluff with any hands on this flop vs this player type? If you do, what value hands do you also have in your check-raise range?
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I considered this for sure in game but ultimately thought that we were too deep. bbkids is very capable of 5! me light and I don’t want to give up the equity and implied odds this hand has if flopping a set. Also, bb is going to call with most of his 3! range and then I’m out of position in a hugely bloated pot.

This is kind of where I was at on the flop, don’t see any need to protect against a 5 that’ll fall less than 10% on the turn. Wanted to keep his bluffs in and if he has an over pair I think he’s betting a ton on the turn so I’ll still have the opportunity to get more than 3 streets of value. Plus waiting till the turn makes 3! much larger and better for getting all in.

I’m not super concerned with A5 and 55, although they are in his 3! range it’s still pretty narrow as wide as his range is. On the button he could have 65s, 54s and 75s himself so there is a lot there but I think he’s betting this flop with all of his back door draws too. I agree I think this is probably the spot I missed a x/r on the turn. The 6d is a great bluff card and bb knows that I know that so I can get called lighter by him on the turn. Plus I get initiative back and makes it easier to get bets in on the river. Missed opportunity.

Did I say this, ugh, if so I misspoke, he’s definitely going to 3 barrel his bigger over pairs on this run out to get value from TT-QQ, he’s just not going to stack off by calling a x/r on the river with them. So then the question is what value does he have that we also beat that he can call with on the river.

This is pretty hardcore if you can make these kinds of folds on the river. I don’t think it’s good to fold sets vs bbkids on this run out though. There are still a lot of bluffs in his range and he’s value betting worse too. I haven’t looked at Flobzilla, just got back to my computer late last night but I’m fairly certain we’re going to have 25% equity here.

Very nice post @WannabeCoder as usual. Thanks a bunch sir! Cheers!

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I’m quite wide here. I’m mixing at least 1-2 combos of AA for flatting. So flatting range is something like JJ-22, KQs down to 54s, suited gappers KJs to 53s, I have a mix for 4! bluff with about 8% of the connectors and 1 gappers. Suited A’s AQs AJs ATs A9s A5s A4s A3s A2s.

I do want to x/r sometimes on this flop, polarized to some of the overs that don’t have bdfd and a few of the gutters that don’t have bdfd’s for value I think just str8’s as I don’t block sets or 2 pairs. Maybe x/r top set sometimes but I don’t know, probably not on this flop.

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In favor of check-raising the flop with 33:

There are plenty of runouts that can kill our action on later streets and we can get value now from all the overpairs and Ax type hands. I agree with you that we need to x-r bluff quite a few hands here since we can put V in a tough situation - he will have to call quite a lot with just overcards otherwise we can run wild with check-raises on low boards. We only have 4 combos of straights though (65s) assuming we’re 4betting A5s preflop, so we need some more value hands to x-r. It’s better to check-call our straights since we are less worried about occasionally getting outdrawn and can sometimes win a big pot if a 5 does happen to come while V is holding Ax.

In favor of check-calling flop with 33:

We need to keep strong hands in our check-calling range in order to defend on later streets. Against this Villain in particular we know we’re going to be facing a lot of double and triple barrels so we need strong hands in our range all the way through the hand.

We do still want to bluff, but maybe it’s better to select value combos that will get more benefit from equity denial. So we could instead x-r our middling pocket pairs like TT-77 since there are many more bad cards that can come for these holdings.

Overall
Overall I lean towards x-r on the flop with 33. I can get behind a mixed strategy where we sometimes x-r, sometimes x-c with our sets.

On most boards I will do this in a simple way by check-calling top set since we block top pair hands; on this flop that’s not really such an issue so I can see mixing it up with any of our sets.

1 Like
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My bad, some of phrasing is probably out of order and rushed. I have some off suit wheel A’s that 4! some percent, which I just noticed I didn’t even include any of the off suit hands I 4! and or flat with. I’ll edit that post for first time readers. I’m exclusively flatting all the suited A’s though, not including AKs.

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Question to everyone on this thread: What’s the argument for calling a 3! with pocket threes, even heads up? I mean, taking this hand to showdown is horrible, so the moment you call here, you’re doomed to either bluff, or fold most of the time, the way I see it, so why is it a call? Someone even said you can’t fold on this spot.

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Thanks tacos, I do really like x/r 77-TT. This protects against/charges his overs which he’ll have a good amount of that will not fold to a x/r i.e. with bdfd’s so we get value as well.

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13

Effective stacks are the main reason as the implied odds when you flop a set are very good. In this spot I’m calling 500K into a pot that is 1.1M so we’re better than 2:1 already. The SPR (stack to pot ratio) is 9 or we have 9x the pot that can still go in.

Another reason to varying degrees, opponent dependent is that we don’t want to allow them to auto profit with 3!’s by over folding. With this particular V who 3!’s a lot and is light a lot I have to be defending my opens with calls and 4!’s frequently so that he can not take advantage by exploiting me. Especially when he has direct position.

4 Likes
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@love2eattacos pretty much nailed my thoughts on this one earlier. I wouldn’t be worried about protecting my hand on the flop but I am worried about all the turn cards that will kill the action. For that reason I’d like to see a x/r on the flop with this specific holding.

In general, I like check-calling the aggressor OOP in 3-bet pots with my strong hands. Let someone who is willing to barrel off have all the rope they want. On low/coordinated flops vs a capable player I prefer a x/r on the flop though. It may be a bit of a stretch to get stacks in on the river at 150BB effective but its possible if the pot is built early. That goofy-sized 3-bet made going for stacks more problematic than normal. I don’t know when the small 3-bet became so popular but it is and needs to be countered aggressively.

Anyway, V is not folding overpairs or any Ax with a backdoor draw to a single x/r. You aren’t going to get a ton more value out of his total air either so IMO now is the time to build the pot.

As to folding or 4-betting preflop - No, no and hell-no. At these depths H should not be folding much of his range to a small 3-bet from an aggressive player. These are the hands you win stacks with. Similarly, a 4-bet with this specific holding would be a mistake IMO. H would fold out V’s bluffing range and go up against a much stronger range with a lower SPR when called. Its a total disaster if 5-bet. This is the opposite of what H should be looking for.

5 Likes
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I’m less worried about scare cards killing action being oop to this player because he’ll rep the scare cards as bluffs. On this flop texture there aren’t that many turn card last that can connect with this board in too drastic a way.

GTO solvers probably came up with this sizing in order to keep ranges wider/less polar. You can go thinner for value and get a much better price on bluffs.

ALL OF THE LAST PARAGRAPH +1

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I think the turn is the more likely spot to be x/r. bbkids is an aware thinking player who understands and recognizes the differences between static and dynamic flop textures. On this board if I x/r flop I wouldn’t be shocked if he folded AA on the turn. He’s more likely to continue on scare cards with big over pairs on the turn because I can have so many bluffs on the turn that I don’t have on the flop. This is a reason I like tacos suggestion of raising 77-TT. I get protection from overs and value on some one time floats and I can set up a spot where I can fold out over pairs on a later street.

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Nah - its a thing here specifically. I haven’t given it much thought but it looks like a cheap way to isolate in position.

If this is true, then your line should be to x/r with everything other than your sets and straights :wink: For what its worth, I really really dislike using TT-77 in the x/r range on the flop in a 3-bet pot. In a single raised pot I can see places for this but not in a 3-bet pot. If you x/r these hands specifically, you will need to triple-barrel on nearly every single runout. OOP this is going to end up badly much of the time and needlessly so IMO.

Not necessarily scare cards, just action killing cards. Lots of his value range should slow down on many turns. Then again, its been a while since I’ve seen this player in action so maybe he’s barreling too often? What does he check back with showdown value, if anything? If its too little, there’s your exploit and you can put more hands into your x/c range.

I’d be more inclined to x/c 33 on J73 than on 2/3/4 vs a solid player in a 3-bet pot.

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Next step is to calmly analyze all of this live with no time banks. Damn, what a god you would be.

BTW, pretty tough hand, my head is exploding ; I’m gonna read all of this though, thanks guys!

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An 8BB 3-bet from the button facing a 3.1BB CO open is considered small? I thought it was generally acceptable to go about 2.5-2.7x the open size when you’re 3-betting in position, and more like 4-5x when you’ll be out of position postflop. At 2.58x the open size, his 3-bet sizing seems right in line with what I’d expect.

As for 4-betting being disastrous, I had failed to take stack depth into account. If you’re sitting in under 100BB, you don’t have the implied odds to set-mine when calling V’s 3-bet. However, of course, that’s not the case here.

Finally, take everything I say with a grain of salt. While I’ve studied this stuff and think I have a grasp on the theory, I’ve never personally played at these stakes and have only limited experience facing competitors who play a measured yet aggressive style.

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…and, right on cue, Alex Torelli posts a video advocating a 5x-the-open 3-bet against a big-stack button min-raise when reviewing a hand from this year’s WSOP main event: https://youtu.be/dJAhMK7pCx0