I’ll ask someone because this is above my pay grade. There are so many variables - searching for hands with the nuts only? Bluffs? All hands? Would each line be determined by the actions on previous streets? It gets complicated by the river so I can tell you how many times people check-raise in general (less than 3% on rivers) but I can’t tell you the EV of that decision. If its possible, I’ll find out but my 1st reaction is that it wouldn’t be, or that results wouldn’t be meaningful.
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Agreed that there are a ton of variables. It’s hard to pin it down to something meaningful.
Maybe look for something like “hands that completed a flush draw on the river out of position” and try to assess EV from there? I don’t really know what capabilities you have available to you to filter this down.
I’ll also run this specific spot through Pio Solver and see what that recommends.
I ran the river spot through PIO solver with two different assumptions about Villain’s range. In both cases I gave the solver the option of betting 30%, 60% or all in. For reference on the river there was 26M in the pot with 26.9M effective behind.
I assumed Hero’s range is the same in both cases - calling the turn bet with sets+, plus overpairs with a heart or two overcards with a heart.
Scenario 1: Tight range
Here I assumed Villain would only bet the turn with straights+ or the nut FD.
Scenario 2: Wide range
Here I assumed Villain would bet the turn with top pair+, all OESD, all flush draws. 89% of their overall range.
Analysis
For AhAc specifically, the solver recommends always leading in both scenarios. Villain’s range makes a difference to the recommended sizing - if we think Villain has the tighter range, the solver likes a 30% pot bet. If we think Villain bet the turn wide then the solver likes lead-jamming (it’s basically a pot-sized jam).
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Thanks for running this. I love PioSolver, especially when it agrees with me 
I’ll look to see what I can filter for in HEM but I think Pio answered the question pretty definitively for optimal games.
Haha, no problem. It’s a fascinating tool and there’s quite a lot you can do with the free version even though it only lets you look at turns and rivers.
I found it really interesting that with the wide range for Villain it actually recommends betting everything in Hero’s range. It’s shoving all the nut flushes, betting small with the Q-high flushes, and using the sets as bluffs to balance. I wonder whether this tells us something about our range (is it too tight?) vs villain’s range in general?
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When you are the SB squeezing a zillion limpers, I don’t think your range can be all that balanced. LOL Plus, the villain limp-called on the BTN. Its more likely that his range was far too wide.
This was a goofy hand right out of the starting gate. I think we’ll get to see if our ranges are robust enough when we look at more standard hands.
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We have gotten a lot of analysis out of this hand. If I had sized my open better maybe the hand ends right then.
Scenario 2 from pio solver really aligns with what I was thinking at the time, but I don’t know if my range assumptions are correct either.
Here’s a really weird hand (I can post it in a new thread if the moderators prefer that…). I played it about as badly as possible, as you will see at showdown.
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/451691589
This hand is very similar to the 75s hand I posted previously, except worse because I am out of position. Most 3-bets were getting at least one caller, so a squeeze did not seem good, so folding is really the only option for me, but the hand was just too pretty. Even if I have the raw equity to call, being out of position and not being the preflop aggressor are terrible for suited connectors.
The flop hits me about as hard as possible, but I still check, expecting somebody behind me to fire so I can consider putting in a check-raise. But it checks around, and the turn puts a second flush draw on board and completes straights for T8 and 86.
What is the right play for me on this turn? Check-call seems good, but I wanted to regain the iniative since I knew I had a lot of equity. I don’t hate the idea of betting, but I probably need to size up to try to get folds with a plan to fold versus a raise. Bromholm flats and then ryan raises to pot. So I am in the same situation as the other hand with a small pair and a baby draw, but out of position. Bromholm (the original raiser) still needs to act, so I could be up against both the nut flush draw and a turned straight or set of 7s. But the checks around on the flop are strange. The board is too dynamic for Bromholm (or ryan) to have slow-played a set, so I think Bromholm likely has 1-pair that can’t call behind if I call (I think even AA is likely to fold to this action, especially if it blocks any flush draws). And I think ryan bets the flop with open-ended straight draws or club flush draws. So, ryan is repping exactly a straight or possibly a set of 7s. But something told me I still had showdown value because he is very aggressive and can make this play with a spade or club draw.
So, even if we assume he can be raising a flush draw (bigger than mine) or maybe QT (which usually bets flop), what is the right play for me? I don’t think raising is ever right because he will play perfectly versus a raise (and would I be raising for value or as a bluff? Neither). Folding is almost certainly the best play because I have marginal showdown value (most people would say I have no showdown value with bottom pair going to the river out of position) and am not getting a good price to draw. Or I can call and pray for a club (and that I’m not up against a bigger club draw).
I call and the river is a red deuce, the epitome of a brick. I considered turning my hand into a bluff because I lose to many of the hands he bluffs on the turn (T9s, TT, 88, 87s, 76s). But I thought about it and realized that his turn bet was polarizing, so if he was bluffing he is more likely to have a hand with less showdown value, like a naked flush draw. So I counted on the fact that my turn call looked super strong and that he would not fire again on the river, and miraculously enough it worked…
Maybe this hand isn’t worth analyzing because my preflop play is so bad, but this is the kind of family pot that Replay is known for, so maybe it is helpful to think about his range or what my range could look like. Is it ever the right play to raise a naked flush draw on this turn? Is it possible that he just has a random bluff?
So, apparently the humiliation of the 7/5s hand was not severe enough? LOL, I think you go looking for trouble sometimes. Can’t believe a pair of 5’s took that down. I’d bet anything that Brom had that beat and was kicking himself. Actually there’s not much he can call with, though he loves to call. I’m guessing Ryan picked up the spade or straight draw and decided to give up when you called the turn.
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I actually don’t hate the call preflop as long as the BB wasn’t prone to squeezing. You were getting a great price to see a flop with a hand that can smash UTG open ranges. Its just really difficult to float OOP with these types of hands unless you kill the flop. The worst part of these hands for most players is that they tend to catch enough to make floating look attractive. As you mentioned, many times you are drawing to the 2nd best hand and can lose huge pots like that.
Your post-flop reasoning was sound and you have a skill advantage so you can probably try this more than the average player can. My biggest question would be whether it is profitable enough in the long term to be worthwhile? I suppose if you can jettison hands early enough where appropriate and get stacks when you make your hand it can be. Out of curiosity, what was your plan for different rivers? I’m not in love with the turn play but if you had a good plan for stealing enough pots on some river cards, then I think it makes more sense.
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That’s a lot more positive feedback than I was expecting lol. The BB doesn’t squeeze, and I figure it’s either smash or fold postflop (except when I end up with the weird pair/draw I had). I am sure that Brom had me beat, but there is now way he can call with 1 pair.
I am not sure if this type of play is profitable. Probably not. But it can be helpful for future spots and table image to show up with weird hands like this one.
I was thinking that I might have to jam as a bluff, but I didn’t think enough about what rivers might be best for that. In retrospect, I think a board pair can be the best spots to bluff because ryan usually is raising a straight for value and I might have continued turn with 99/77/55/J9/97, so I can rep the boat on the river. Repping the spade flush or a brick is probably setting chips on fire.
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Yup, these are the spots that can leave craters in your stack. You catch just enough to continue “because I’m priced in” and before you know it you have 30BB+ in the middle, OOP and wondering why.
Ryan may have had a draw or nothing at all and was taking a stab. I think a lot of players here bet their draws on the turn so a large raise in position has a chance to fold those out. Doesn’t matter if you have a hand or a draw if you can get enough folds. Your call was sticky but probably most players just give up and he can take the pot.
Going back to Joe’s river bet on the AhAc hand…
You only get called there if you’re beat, unless you think he would try to bluff catch with Qh or maybe 10h. I find this to be doubtful.
I suspect the turn bet was a bluff, you have to give him room to bluff again.
1/4 to 1/3 pot would give him that chance, and maybe get a crying call from Qh or 10h. You would basically be representing a blocking bet with a non-nut hand you wanted to take to showdown cheap. This would maybe induce a big bluff on his part.
And yes, you would have to call if he did shove the river over you.
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Here’s a new hand for this thread: https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/452586633
Enryu is a very tricky player, and he effectively polarizes himself here. I was holding AJ of spades and decided to bluffcatch with it (because I know he likes to barrel me off). But the river shove proved too much for me. I feel stupid for folding, but I also would have felt stupid calling and being shown a boat.
For context, he opens wide so 3-betting AJs for value is not as absurd as it is against most Replay players. Also, he likes to barrel people off hands as a bluff but is decently balanced and should know from experience that I am capable of making a hero call with top pair. So, this looks like a leveling war.
I had a plan from checking the flop that I would call both turn and river almost always. The sizing on the river was surprising to me, and it is pretty dicey that he would be doing this for value, but he can have 44/54/55/66. I would also take the same line with AA/A4s/A5s/A6s, so AJ is not the top of my range. Do people think he might do this with a flush or 87s? I believe in most spots on Replay this looks like a flush, but the ace of clubs is on the board and the board is paired. He could be betting a flush for value since I do not have many boats (AA/A4s), but it is still pretty dicey to straight up shove instead of value betting. It looks to me like he has a boat and is hoping to get looked up by a flush or an Ax hero call. But I believe he can have a lot of bluffs because I under-repped my hand by checking the flop.
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Really interesting hand. I don’t get to see much 3-betting in ring games at my stakes, unless people have rockets or cowboys (and even then they might just flat). Will Enryu always defend his open when you 3-bet, or will he sometimes fold? Does he 4-bet out of position, and with what frequency?
I think it’s important that you have A 
J . Those block a number of his best bluff candidates, since he can’t be bluffing with a missed nut flush draw. In that case, what missed flush draws does he have? I’m guessing KQ (though given the aggression at higher levels, this might be a 4-bet), KT, T9, T8, and 89? Would he turn 86 or 76 into an overbet bluff on the river after he catches a 6? If not, and we give him credit for KQ spades, that’s 5 bluffs. If he can have 44, 54s, 55, and 66, there are nine hands he could be betting for value, so you weren’t getting the odds on a call.
Things only become a little more even if we give him credit for 86s or 76s bluffs, and nutted or second-nutted flushes, with no straights in his value range. For the latter, let’s give him KQ, KJ, KT, K9, and perhaps K8, as well as QJ, QT, and Q9. That would bring the bluff total to 11, and value total to 17. You need to beat him 42.7% of the time for a call to be a winning play, but 11/(11+17) = 39.3%, so again you should fold… though it’s definitely close. I think folding when in doubt makes sense.
Thanks for sharing a tough decision against a very aggressive competitor.
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Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Thinking through the math based on ranges is really helpful. I really have trouble answering your questions and defining ranges because I’m not sure how much of the play is a leveling war (which we don’t see much on replay) or if he plays the same way regardless of opponent. In my opinion enryu is one of the top 5 active players on replay, and when I’ve played the best players here they are typically looking to exploit the fact that they know I am trying to make the “correct” play and can lay down big hands. Enryu does this a lot, so I don’t think he folds versus 3bets even out of position. He also doesn’t 4bet light, probably because he thinks his postflop skill will get him out of a jam. So, this thinking pushes me in opposite directions; he can call the 3bet and bet for value with hands like 44/55/A4/54/64/66(bluff the turn), as well as lots of baby flushes and even straights. Straights and small flushes would marginal to shove for value in non-3bet pots, but he knows that I am likely to bluff-catch with a single ace and that I hardly 3bet any flush combos with the ace of clubs on board. Or he can have a boat that tries to look like a bluff and get looked up by flushes or Ax.
But on the other hand, he can also be banking on the fact that I can make big folds. He knows I don’t have many flushes (I would almost certainly cbet club draws), and I’d even probably cbet A5 or A4 to get value from AK/AQ and draws, so he knows I can hardly ever call the river. AA is my only likely boat. He doesn’t usually fold vs 3bet so he can have all kinds of trash bluffs, maybe 5x or 6x or with a club blocker. The other thing is that I under rep my hand. When I chose to do that it was with the clear intention of calling down. But he may also think my check back indicates that I have JJ/QQ/KK, which are much harder to call on this river. The fact that I’m under repped means I pretty much have to call or I should have just played it in a more straightforward manner. But ultimately I can find better spots against less tricky players, and maybe he was banking on that as well.
Maybe this is helpful context. At another table he opened from EP, I flatted the button with QTo with the intention of floating him. The board was dry, he fired 2 barrels of relatively standard 2/3 pot and I flatted before he checked river and I bet with queen- high for just under half pot and got the fold. It seems like he will try to barrel people off with nothing. In this later hand my range is far less defined and looks stronger so he has to give up. The original hand was a much better bluff opportunity.
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I bet my entire range on that flop. That’s where our lines diverge. Under-repping hands that are vulnerable 1-pairs gets me in all sorts of difficult spots so I try not to put myself in them. I like the 3-bet to isolate but IMO, if you were going to do that, you needed to bet the flop. If you were going to take a more passive line, flatting pre would have been the way to go (though I prefer the 3-bet). I don’t have many specific reads on that player so this is just in general, against a solid villain.
As played, I find the fold there too. Then I kick myself for not betting the flop 
ADDED: I ran the hand through Snowie and its suggested line had betting the flop as higher EV than checking it back. Since you classified villain as an advanced player, I think an optimal strategy can be used as your baseline.
I’d love to see this hand!
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https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/452658761
I guess AJ is not the kind of hand to protect my check-back range with. But I just figured I get called by AK/AQ or better and folds from everything else. I wasn’t too worried about 67 or flush draws even though the board is kind of wet.
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All I would like to say (and all I really can say) is that I really enjoyed this hand and seeing some thoughts on it played out. I found it to be quite an interesting hand. It’s great to see good players who know what they’re doing play such an interesting board. This board would be so chaotic and nonsensical at lower stakes or with less advanced players. This hand was a treat to see. In all honesty it truly reminded me of a professionally played hand. And again, I’m thinking without obviously knowing. Great hand nontheless.
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I agree that its not the best hand to put into your checkback range for protection. IMO, I’m very happy if the hand ends right here and I scoop a nice pot. The 3-bet built the pot nicely so getting a fold on the flop nets a good pot with no variance. That’s a great result from a medium strength hand. If I get called, caution lights go off in my head and I’d be looking for the cheapest way to showdown. I may be a bit more conservative than some here but if I bet my entire range on that flop and get a good percentage of folds, its very profitable.
Really nice read and play on the QTo hand. Did you consider raising the turn since the BB had folded the flop? That’s a great board to bluff on since most of villains range is still over-cards. You also have position and there’s no rule against binking a pair on the river if it gets there. That pair would be very disguised. Nice turn to raise as well because it looks like you’re protecting a made hand from the flush draw or you’re betting the draw itself. Gives you a couple ways to play the river if he even calls the raise. If he re-raises, you have an easy fold. Well played and a great use of position. Cards? We don’t need no stinking cards! That’s playing poker.
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