Triple-Barrel Bluff

Elsewhere in that same session, I was in the UTG+1 position, and opened AA to 6.5K facing an UTG flat and two committed players behind. Everyone folded and I scooped. Not that I’m complaining, just wanted to provide a bit of context to the bet sizing.

As far as the decision to play this hand, QT is probably the weakest suited one-gapper I’d open on this table. I might even send 89s into the muck. Generally I’m going to be very value-heavy, since people at these stakes are (still) passive stations.

I was thinking through what hands I could be betting for value, and what missed draws I could have in this spot. For value, I could have the ace-high flush with a 5, T, J, Q, or K. All would open, continue on the flop, and have the backdoor flush come in on the turn & river. Q :spades: T :spades: would be a value bet as well. I could also have a set of 5’s, J’s, or K’s. That’s 15 combos for value.

As a bluff on the river, I’d want to choose my OESDs that don’t block club flushes. I wouldn’t open QT offsuit, and QT spades, so we’ll add QT diamonds and QT hearts to the list. I don’t think I have any club flush draws that don’t block straight draws - A :clubs: K :clubs: is too high in my value range to use as a bluff. If I add in broadway draws with A :spades: and no clubs, that gives me four more combos - the tens and queens of diamonds and hearts. That’s a total of 6 combinations as bluffs.

Since 15/21 (67%) of my bets here are for value, I’d need to bet 2/3 pot for my opponent to be indifferent between calling and folding. If I bet larger, I need to work more hands into my bluff range.

Granted, I didn’t do all of this analysis until well after the fact, but it’s nice when the numbers work out. :slight_smile:

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