Unfortunately this hand wasn’t played here, so I’ll have to give a breakdown of the action:
I open UTG for 2.5bb, BB calls (6max cash, 100bb effective)
Flop: Jd 3h 2c
BB Checks
I bet 1/3 pot
BB check raises 4x (~1/2 pot)
I call
Turn: 8h
BB overbets 133% pot
I call
River: 4d
BB thinks for a bit, then makes a pot size all in
Here’s what I think is interesting - it’s hard to find a lot of bluffs on that flop, but my opponent turned up with one I don’t think many people will find, but is solver approved. It also likes barreling with this hand on the turn (although the turn barrel is a lot more obvious, and anyone who gets there with this hand is going to find it).
Q1: Can you guess what they had?
Secondly, in my shoes, I don’t have many hands that are happy to see the check raise then overbet.
Q2: What good hands do you start to fold on the flop and then the turn?
Q3: What is the weakest hand you can call with on the river and why?
First instinct is villain had either overcards with hearts or a combo draw of some kind with hearts, starting a bluffas a backdoor on the flop and continuing with aggression when they pick up equity on the turn.
I’m guessing it can’t have too much showdown value, if any, on the flop or turn to want to take this line as a bluff.
Maybe by the river it could be something like A4h that had a gutshot and is now turning a probably useless pair into a third barrel
Then again maybe Axh is too good for this line… but it does block the nuts on the river
I think A4, A5 are fairly logical bluffs, and even the non heart varieties are allowed to barrel the turn sometimes, but that’s not what they had.
Th9h is close, but that hand is just a bit too weak and is supposed to fold on the flop. There’s some logic in the hand they chose that hasn’t been mentioned yet. They do have hearts though, which is why it’s a fairly obvious barrel on the turn. FWIW, almost all heart combos are supposed to give up on the river, including Ah4h and they hand they actually had.
BB was bluffing the whole way and never made a pair.
As UTG, I can only have a pair of 2’s or 3’s on this flop if I have A2/A3 suited, and with the exception of As2s, which is a mix, the other combos have too much equity to fold. Also, the hands I’m most worried about my opponent having are 22, 33, 23, so blocking some of those combos would be a good thing. What would you do with say, pockets 7’s or even KJo?
You are correct that almost all one pair hands should fold by the river. A lot of strong pairs are actual completely indifferent between call and fold, but there is one single pair hand that’s always supposed to call.
Q4: As UTG, what one pair hand is supposed to call on the river, and why is it a better call than some higher ranking pairs?
Q4. Given how much you’re in for by the River only a pair of Jacks but, I would’ve folded when the BB checked raised 4x (1/2 pot) if you didn’t hit Jacks or had 2 pair or greater. I think the BB’s error is to Bluff a previous Bluff on the Turn with nothing. Obviously, BB’s River bet with nothing is also a mistake.
QJo, KJo and pocket 7s are actually supposed to start folding on the flop, depending on suits, but it’s close. Every other pair is a profitable call in theory.
Overpairs are still supposed to call on the turn, but all other one pair hands fold, with a couple of important exceptions. AhJh, KhJh, QhJh all have to call. AxJx can also call sometimes.
BB’s river barrel is actually really good - the solver makes it 100% of the time. Betting the river with nothing is not a mistake either. It’s just a problem with hearts, as a decent amount of the combos I have that will call the turn overbet and fold on the river are heart draws.
On the river, would you rather call with AJ or QQ and why?
I actually won the hand. My hand was too strong to fold but not quite strong enough to raise to raise at any point either, if you want to take a stab at guessing what I had.
Looking back on how you bet and called, I’m guessing a small pair like 7, 6 or 5. I’m thinking a pair of 5’s.
Flop:
you bet 1/3 pot trying to buy or bluff the pot for some reason at that point.
you called the 4x (1/2 pot) raise figuring you were still ahead but if this was for real money or play money, I would’ve folded because a small pair is not worth the risk.
Turn:
You just called again figuring you’re still ahead.
River:
Like I said at this point you were in for too much to fold with play money and I’m guessing you weren’t all-in.
This was actually played for real money. Not a lot of money, but more than enough to buy a beer. I’m not throwing that away by calling with worse than what I had, which was pocket 2’s for bottom set.
QhTh wraps the J, blocking some of my value. Wrapping the top card is often a decent bluff, but in this exact case it’s not blocking as much value as it normally would. Solver still likes it though, but only with the backdoor flush draws, QsTs folds to the 1/3 pot flop cbet.
The reason for AJ being a better call than QQ though is that AJ blocks more value, rather than it unblocking bluffs. BB can have JJ, J8 and A5 in this line. They hardly have any Qx, and what little they do have is just about all heart combos that aren’t supposed to bluff. (They aren’t supposed to have QQ, KK or AA though, so all those hands are equivalent and zero EV calls for UTG.)
You actually want the Ah, because most of villains A5 combos are hearts. Every hand worse than a set is extremely marginal though, and probably not good very often in reality, so I’m not sure suit of the ace makes much difference in practice.