Comparing Simple Strategies

Poker Strategy
21

OK, not quite 2,000 hands (I’ve been sick, which has given me more time, but is also sapping my endurance), but still the most for any of these test runs, at 1,624 hands played… Here are the results for Value Village:

Tables played: 5/10 NL Holdem (Connemara Lake and Iguazu Falls)
Hands played: 1,624
Chips won: $35,755
BB/100 hands: 220.17

I was expecting this style to do significantly better than the other two, and it didn’t really outperform Pre-Flop Hammer by a statistically significant amount.

  • I’m not really playing enough games with each style to make confident comparisons
  • the frequency of stronger players does go up with each level, and I found myself up against a surprisingly large number of players in the top 10,000 ranks, and even a few in the top 1,000, and so you’d expect all styles to show some degree of reduced profitability with every step up to another level

In any case, I think this establishes that all of these styles are probably at least capable of being played profitably at the lowest levels on Replay Poker. With Pre-Flop Hammer, I think most players with a little discipline should be able to exactly replicate my play. With Passive Fish, recognizing when you have the nuts and can go all in is probably not a problem for many, but making good call decisions is a very difficult skill (and one of the reasons I thought it might be good to suggest over folding). For Value Village, again there were a lot of spots with marginal hands where call/fold decisions had a very big impact, and I won a number of very large pots with tough calls. Here, paying attention to the betting frequencies of your opponents, and accurately assessing the strength of your hand in light of those frequencies and the bets seen so far makes a huge difference; and even if you do it well, you’re really just hoping for small gains with these calls over the long run, while doing it poorly can be a huge leak.

Up next will be Lazy Limper

  • on tables with little pre-flop raising, limp with everything from any position
  • on tables with moderate pre-flop betting, but little 3 betting, limp with everything included in the button Value Village raising range, and add all suited 2 gap connectors (Qh9h, 8d5d, etc)
  • on tables where pre-flop jams, 3 bets and 4 bets are moderately frequent, limp with AA-TT, AK, AQs and AJs, and go all in against any raise
  • when limping and facing a min raise, mostly call (only fold if the risk of re-raises behind you is high, and only attack with some premium hands, like those in the bullet above)
  • when facing a normal sized raise: on passive tables call with suited or better; on tables with moderate pre-flop aggression, drop your complete junk all of the time, and gapped connectors and small pairs if you are out of position relative to the raiser, really increasing the cards you toss in situations where you think the risk is higher that your call might face further pre-flop raises; you can also make a normal 3 bet with some of your holdings if you’d like (if you would like to polarize your range here, try to make sure value combinations outnumber bluff combinations)
  • only stick around with your premium hands against silly large raises (3x pot and more), though you can expand this range a little against a raiser that makes these bets with a super high frequency (but you still need to be worried about any players behind you that have not folded yet): AA-TT, AK, AQs (AJs optional)
  • fold almost everything on the flop to normal sized bets that hasn’t connected strongly with the flop; you’ll get a lot of multi-way pots here, and you need very strong hands to bet aggressively
  • when you do get a big hand (top pair is not a big hand with 7 opponents), make big bets on every street: 100% pot to 200% pot (even with top 2 pair, if the board is at all wet, and you have 4 or more opponents, bet smaller and much more carefully)
  • with hands that you think are likely ahead but vulnerable, make small bets (25% to 50% pot) on the flop or turn, checking on the river
  • make big bets with strong draws to the nuts (8 outs or more) on flop and turn that are sized similarly to the bets you are making with your monsters, keeping track of how many bluffs and how many value bets you’ve made (I think ideally here you’d like at least 2 value bets for every bluff, as I think your bluffs are likely to be money losers at this level, but should give you more calls with your value)

So this is essentially a set mining type strategy, where you are playing “weak” hands cheaply, looking to take advantage of the low fold frequencies of players at these levels when you do make a strong hand. Note that stack depth matters a lot here when you are facing a pre-flop raise. You need to have a deep stack, and you need to be able to expect at least one deep stacked caller. With set mining, you probably usually want stacks behind to be 20 to 30 times the size of the raise you are facing, and with your suited connectors, it is probably more like 30 to 40 (and even higher for 72 suited and other complete junk we will be playing against a pre-flop raise), so pay attention to the stack depth of the players you are expecting to be in the pot if you call, and if this gives you the implied odds you need to make the call.

22

Thanks for the experiment and the updates … This is turning out to be far more interesting than I expected!

Are you finding that there’s any frequency of players who are able to exploit you? I would think 1 player/3 tables or something like that would be not surprising.

I’m not sure that the Preflop Hammer can be exploited, in general, except by overfolding - maybe call with JJ+? The exception to this would be when you play out of the big blind where I think it would be profitable to play against you with 98s+, 22+, AXs and, maybe KXs, check the flop and call your shove if we hit 2 pair or better and all straight and flush draws. I’m not sure that I’d call a shove with a gut shot straight draw.

As you noted, although Preflop Hammer was successful, I don’t think many players would have the discipline and I would want to play at least 2 tables, probably more, to stave off the boredom! Multi-tabling is a “skill” very few new players will have.

Passive Fish is a strategy that seems to be regularly employed by players on the low stakes table. When I was trying to develop a “range” for these tables, I came up with pretty much the same as you:
22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o

It wouldn’t surprise if I’m assigning too tight a range(!!!) overall but this is, for me, a decent place to start.

I’m interested that you also note that it’s hard to evaluate ranges! My experience is that, with multiple players seeing the flop with such a wide range, someone nearly always hits something that will keep them in the game even against a shove bet on the flop.

There is value to be gained here if you have a direct hit and lead out the betting but it’s reliant on minimum 1/2 pot bets through to 2x pot. Most players will continue with their draws and we can only profit by giving them the wrong odds to call.

I have to go to work now … thanks again for your updates! I’ll have some more comments to make when I get home.

Good luck!

Regards,
TA

23

I’ve played about 300 hands now with the Lazy Limper strategy, and it’s off to an amazing start (I might just be getting lucky). But it feels like it is really crushing this level. Variance is quite low, as you are not in many difficult to play situations if you choose to avoid them, and it feels like this gives you as many opportunities as you can profitably pursue to hit monster hands on the flop.

That said, I’ve already made some quick modifications to the strategy:

  • no table has been so passive that I’ve felt I could limp with small, unsuited, disconnected cards from any position, so I’ve thrown out everything like Q6, T3 and 84 (though again, if it gets passive enough, I’ll try to play those also)
  • I haven’t been bluffing even as much as described (1 bluff to 2 value)… my over bets are all getting called, so why bluff just to encourage calls that are already happening
  • if I do find people begin folding too much to my value over bets, I’ll probably just take every high equity bluff that comes my way until one gets shown down, and then be done with it on that table
24

Are you finding that there’s any frequency of players who are able to exploit you? I would think 1 player/3 tables or something like that would be not surprising.

LOL… I’m posting my exact strategy: people should certainly be exploiting that. But I suppose not many people are actually aware that this thread exists. But yes, I think that all of these strategies, if you know I’m using them, should be exploitable, and I’m encouraging people to give that a try.

  • Pre-Flop Hammer: fold unless you have a hand that beats my range: AA - QQ and AK would be fine calls given that you know exactly what I’m playing
  • Passive Fish: Fold to my all in bets unless you also have the nuts (boom, all of my value gone), and attack my overly wide range pre-flop with raises (and not just min raises). Post flop, if you are playing tighter, you should also have a range advantage against me, and can fire a stream of small bets at me pretty profitably
  • Value Village: I’m practically playing with my cards face up here, so if I check, make a small to mid-sized bet at me no matter what you have, and if I bet, understand that my bets are very value heavy (zero bluffs), and get out of the way if you don’t have something that beats that range
  • Lazy Limper: LOL… I’ll delay giving my thoughts on how best to exploit this one, as I’m still playing it. :grin:

Disclaimer: a lot of these suggestions kind of assume you have gotten heads up against me, or close to heads up. If you have a lot of other players still in the pot (which often happens at these levels), then you have to worry about them, also. But given that most everyone else is playing too many hands at this level also, I think the easiest exploit is to make moderately stiff raises with your better hands, being quite tight about that in early position, and adding hands as you get closer to the button, and don’t have any raises in front of you. Also remember, one of the classic raises is the isolation raise, trying to get heads up against the fish that is playing every pot, and in this case, the fish is me!

Passive Fish is a strategy that seems to be regularly employed by players on the low stakes table. When I was trying to develop a “range” for these tables, I came up with pretty much the same as you:
22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o

It wouldn’t surprise if I’m assigning too tight a range(!!!) overall but this is, for me, a decent place to start.

LOL, I don’t think you need to worry about that range being too tight.

1 Like
25

Thanks for the response!

Pre-Flop Hammer: Now that you’ve mentioned it, I would probably play AKs and play JJ in preference to AKo. I assume that you will call a shove before you provided the other conditions are met.

Skipping Passive Fish, I think we’ve covered that one!

Value Village:

Not really. Q7o is somewhere in the middle of the range that I expect low stakes players to call with so getting called doesn’t surprise me in the least. The same can be said for the other villain playing with A4o.

Trip queens were never going to fold and I’m not really surprised - I’m not convinced that I would fold! I wouldn’t be in that position with that hand but that’s a different story lol

You should have already noticed just how highly players at these stakes value AA whether pocket pairs or by hitting the board at some stage. They would probably give up their significant other or their first-born before they would give up the almighty AA. The other villain coming along for the ride is also not at all surprising.

It was because it has happened to me so many times, and still does!, that I started to think about what would be a decent baseline range for limpers. That was a silly thought - the baseline range for limping is 100% of hands.

The range that I described previously, I think, is not too far off the calling range of most players provided the initial raise is 4BB or less. They will call a larger raise, with the same range, in my opinion and experience, if there is a least one caller before them. I think they see the size of the pot and just throw their chips in the middle!

Lazy Limper: I feel this has the potential to be the best strategy (so far!) but, as you noted, it needs some modifications to the range.

I like that you have thrown out T3 and 84 along with the other rubbish but I’d be tempted to keep all AXs, KXs, QXs and JXs.

It would be interesting to have some discussion regarding your betting strategy and how it could be improved. Maybe we will see some changes in the next experiment :slight_smile: That’s not to say that I have any good ideas but I’d certainly value knowing your thoughts at the conclusion of Lazy Limper.

Many thanks again!

Regards,
TA

26

I think there are a lot of players at these lowest levels that literally limp with 100% of their hands if they are not facing a raise, and some that have ranges broader than you’ve described even in the face of a raise. What’s the average range you’ll be up against, assuming one pre-flop raise? I imagine it is moderately close to what you listed, though obviously there will be tremendous individual variation. Fairly tight players do exist at these levels.

27

Lazy Limper results:
Tables played: 10/20 NL Holdem (London Bridge & Moscow Red Square)
Hands played: 1,002
Chips won: $48,961
BB/100 hands: 244.32

Most of the winnings came early, where I suspect I got lucky, hitting lots of sets and other very strong hands, with a strategy that let me build a pot with those strong hands. I also didn’t face many bad beats early on, but did hit a few in the last 500 or so hands played. All in all, this performed better than expected. In general here I’d expect Value Village to outperform Lazy Limper, but I think the difference might be smaller than I’d imagined. I’ll probably come back to all of these again to test them out at higher stakes to see how much value they lose (except Passive Fish, which I find simply too painful to play much, lol).

I should probably add that I continued to drop hands from my opening range, especially from earlier positions, where I was folding A x off suit and most off suit broadway most of the time, the tables were so aggressive. Even on the button, during some stretches, I was tossing most hands, as the blinds were attacking limpers frequently, and then other seats that had originally limped would 3 bet.

But the fundamental principle remains the same for a limper: you can play more hands profitably on a passive table, and you’ll get skewered limping too much on a table where you see regular 3 bets and 4 bets.

Summary of results so far:

  • Pre-Flop Hammer @ 1/2: 222 BB/100
  • Passive Fish @ 2/4: 73 BB/100
  • Value Village @ 5/10: 220 BB/100
  • Lazy Limper @ 10/20: 244 BB/100

So Lazy Limper is in front so far. My guess would be it would fall to 2nd place with more hands, and that it will also suffer more playing at significantly higher stakes, but it will be interesting testing both of those hypothesis.

Next up: Pressure Cooker
This is the first scheme where I’ll avoid explaining the mechanics (which are surprisingly simple… this is not yet one of the advanced approaches) until after I’ve played it. But suffice it to say that it will be a very aggro style, and I’m expecting variance to be very high, but I’m also guessing it will very profitable, and might set a new standard for BB/100 hands, if the volatility doesn’t bite it hard (in which case it could easily become the first style to show a loss). This style tends to be very frustrating for most people to play against, and as they experience that frustration, they become emotional, and you see a lot of people tilt at some point, and playing against tilting players just tends to be incredibly profitable.

28

Pressure Cooker is a few hundred hands in, and doing well. Some broad outlines, without yet getting into too many specifics:

  • Very frequent (nearly 100%) small pre-flop raises
  • Very frequent (again, almost 100%) small post flop bets, with occasional normally sized sized bets, with some over-bets also mixed in

The basic premise here: constant, annoying small bets where it is hard to decide how to respond. All of these end up serving as “blocking” bets, decreasing the frequency with which opponents make normal sized bets of their own, preserving your pot equity, while also tending to drop a few opponents per bet, setting you up for a river bluff that will tend to be somewhat larger than the earlier, supremely annoying bets. This mountain of small bluffs will be masked with small value bets with weak pairs.

Laid on top of this are larger bets that combine strong value with higher equity bluffs. Almost inevitably, one or more opponents start going all in pre-flop with almost all of their hands, creating an incredibly profitable situation that mimics the value you can derive playing some of the very weakest players. You’ll also see some giant re-raises starting to occur more and more often, which makes for wonderfully easy fold/re-raise decisions.

I think this has been somewhat less potent for me than in some earlier forays where I first tried this: probably because my rank is on display, generating a little more caution in my opponents than I saw in the past. When they see someone lower ranked doing this, I think the internal dialog probably looks something like: “he can’t do this… I’ll show him!” :innocent:

One other keystone here: almost 70% of your bets will be small bets with complete junk that has very little equity even. When you face a normal sized raise in those situations, you really normally have an incredibly easy fold. Making that fold is pretty important. You’re playing way too many hands, and if you keep trying to make low equity bluffs into an opponent that has shown strength, well… overall that tends to be a losing proposition. So just toss the hand, and thank the opponent for finally allowing you to fold the junk that you should have really tossed before the flop.

29

Yes, I’m fairly happy to say that, on average, the range that I suggested is not too far away from the calling range of many or most players against a “small” raise of 4BB or less. I did note that my suggested range may be a bit tight(!!!) and I’m glad that you are observing the same thing.

If you’re planning a strategy around a calling range, you can probably tighten it up a bit but I really don’t know where to start! We could possibly eliminate the 2 gapper hands and some of the weak jacks. The weak queen offsuit hands are candidates for elimination as well. I’d be wary of eliminating any of the ace and king hands.

The problem, at these stakes, is that it takes at least 10BB to get some of the rubbish to fold. For example, a hand I played last night on a 50/100 table: Everyone limped, I raised 6BB on the button and got called by T8o! Yes, I lost that hand lol

Yes, there are some tight players and there’s a few who seem to have decent post-flop skills as well. These people are, I suspect, less than 10% of the playing population and fairly easy to identify.

Pressure Cooker has the potential to be, by far, the most successful strategy despite your doubts at this stage. Just remember, if it’s not too late, that what you think is aggressive and what your opponents think is aggressive are probably not the same thing! Anything less than a 10BB raise pre-flop is almost certainly going to get called by 3 players on a full 9-seat table.

You will face a similar problem post-flop: 1/2 pot and less is regularly called by villains holding any sort of draw. Thinking about my experience, I’d suggest that even a full pot bet on the flop is going to get called far more often than you think realistic.

This is a problem that I’m struggling with as I’m trying to claw my way out of the basement! Both loose and tight aggressive can be highly profitable but the variance requires a fairly substantial bankroll so I’m looking forward to see how this works for you.

Good luck, as always, may you be blessed by the poker gods :slight_smile:

Regards,
TA

30

OK, still not quite at 1,000 hands, but pretty close. Looks like I’ll finish up pretty good, but won’t be beating the best performing styles (unless I go on an amazing tear over the last 100 hands or so).

Here’s the basic strategy of Pressure Cooker:

  • if facing no bet, make a raise almost 100% of the time
  • pre-flop, make a min raise (we’ll talk about occasional deviations from this later)
  • on the flop, make a bet roughly 10% to 20% of the pot
  • on the turn, make a 12.5% to 25% bet
  • on the river, go 15% to 30% of pot

All of these assume you have absolutely nothing, which will be most of the time. You’ll be surprised how many people call with nothing, and then fold to the river bet. When trying to decide whether to go a bit bigger or smaller, you’re really trying to decide what you think the best investment to fold ratio is.

When to do other stuff:

  • if there is a raise in front of you (or after your raise), throw all this out and play real poker (which will require realistically appraising where you stand)
  • often, people will start to expect your pre-flop raises, and will attack with big raises after limping… this is a good thing; mostly fold, but when you have a premium hand (AA-TT, AK, AQs, AJs and sometimes slightly broader, depending on how frequently the individual is making the move) make a stiff 4 bet, or even a jam if a normal pot sized 4 bet would get you at all close to all in
  • if you have a real hand post flop, normally make pot sized bets and bigger
  • modify this if people are starting to re-raise your small bets at a very high frequency, or are folding a really high percentage of the time
  • add in occasional high equity bluffs also, if you start to see people folding a lot to your large bets
  • if you are multi-tabling and start to feel it is sometimes too much to handle so much action on every table, toss some of your worst hands from the worst positions pre flop; this can also disrupt your opponents a bit, as they often start to base their strategies around expecting you to bet
  • you can also not bet post flop if you have a lot of opponents, have a hand with close to zero equity, and haven’t been getting many folds on the river with your silly little bets
  • one last spot to not bet: if you have a hand on the river with showdown value against an opponent that raises your small bets on the river a lot, but you think would fold any worse hand to a normal sized bet – here you can just check and bluff catch

That’s pretty much it. I’ve had a harder time with it than I remember when using it a few times in the past. I think I’ve run a little bad (though not extremely so), but also, I’m finding myself up against a surprising number of players in the top 5,000, and this frankly might not be very effective against most of them. Again, I’ll probably give this another go at higher stakes later, and it will be fun to see how it goes.

Main counter strategy I’d recommend: ignore my small bets. Pretend they didn’t happen, and make the play you would have made if I had checked. They don’t narrow my range much at all (probably less than a check would, actually), and so you don’t want to let me control the bet sizing if you have a hand worth a bet.

One other thought: remember I’m playing an incredible amount of junk. I’m literally raising under the gun with 72 off suit most of the time I get the hand. That may feel a little scary, as it might seem like I might literally have anything, but consider always what a huge number of combinations I have that didn’t get any piece of the board at all.

Also remember that, on average, I need to bet bigger (much bigger) with my good hands to make up for all the chips I’m throwing away with may small bets with terrible hands. This exploitative bet sizing kind of exposes the strength of my hand. Obviously, I’ll try to mix it up occasionally so that you can’t be confident, but with this scheme, a pretty heavy majority of my big bets will be with very strong hands, and small bets will be with trash.

Some of you will really find this impossible to play. A few of you will love it, and will probably find ways of making it more effective. You just gradually ratchet up the pressure, and eventually you find people start to make silly plays that they usually wouldn’t.

31

Pressure Cooker results:
Tables played: 25/50 NL Holdem (9 max - Amazonian Forest)
Hands played: 1,024
Chips won: $71,424
BB/100 hands: 139.5

So in answer to the question, is it really possible to raise with 100% of your range pre flop and still show a profit? Yes, if your opponents make enough mistakes.

I think the single key mistake I saw the most often was silly bet sizing. The worst example of this was giant over bets as bluffs or with marginal hands. On the opposite end of the spectrum were opponents with giant hands making min re-raises over my already tiny bets, denying themselves value for their strong hands.

Still trying to decide on the exact nature of the next scheme, but I think it will be something a bit more orthodox, probably some kind of relatively straight forward TAG approach with a fairly tight pre flop range, and some simple betting rules post flop. Unlike Value Village, this will incorporate a fairly high density of bluffs, but will be the first scheme were there is a degree of balance between value and bluffs. Too be honest, at stakes this low, I’m not really sure if adding in the bluffs will help or hurt, given the propensity for calling flop and turn bets, especially. I think this next style will have a lot longer shelf life than Value Village, in that it will remain profitable against a stronger group of players, but you often hear that a straight value approach is the way to go when you are surrounded by fish.

1 Like
32

OK, I’ve started playing the next simple strategy, Robo TAG. I’m off to a bad start, down more than one buy in after maybe close to 100 hands. Such is poker.

This is the first strategy with even a slight degree of balance, and so that will make it harder to exploit (though there are plenty of exploitable spots still), and so I don’t think telling everyone exactly what I’m doing will knock off too much EV.

We start with a basic, very tight pre flop opening range, the “T” of TAG. Feel free to modify this a little, as the exact cards matter less than the basic principle of playing tight in early position, and opening up your range as your position improves. Note that I’ve also added a degree of range polarization for coverage (to make it harder for people to safely assume that a given flop missed me), but that this is probably not at all necessary at this level, and is pushing the strategy slightly in the LAGy direction (Loose/Aggro). I’ve simplified the seating notation using only numbers, where 6 is UTG on a 9 max table, and zero is the button. I use this in my notes, as it takes less characters, and works no matter how many people are seated at the table (so UTG becomes 3 if only 6 people are seated).

  • 6: AA-TT, AK and AQs
  • 5: +99, 88, AQ, AJs, A2s and KQs
  • 4: +77, 66, AJ, ATs, A9s, A3s, JTs, 54s, and remove A2s
  • 3: +55, 44, AT, A8s, A4s, A2s, KQ, QJs, 98s, and 76s
  • 2: +33, 22, A9, Axs, QT, JT, and all suited connectors and all suited broadway
  • 1: +A8, all broadway, J9s, and T8s
  • 0: Ax, 97s, 86s, 75s, 64s and 53s
  • -1: if no limps in front, raise the big blind (-2) with CO (1) cards
  • -2: attack limpers with an early position range of your choice (I’d suggest seat 5 or seat 6 ranges), generally being more inclined to call with suited cards, and raise with off suit cards (the suited cards lose less equity in a multi way pot than the off suit cards)
  • for all positions, with limps in front, raise with all the same hands, except small pocket pairs and suited cards; for these, limp behind 75% of the time, and raise the other 25%, except for suited broadway, which you will split raises and limps with evenly, except AKs, which you should raise with at least 75% of the time
  • for preflop sizing, generally make a roughly pot sized bet (which naturally goes up as you have more limpers in front), and if this regularly results in 3 or more callers (or even one player that always calls), feel free to gradually go as far as doubling these amounts
  • if there is a raise in front of you, generally 3 bet with the hands you would normally raise with in the seat before the raise, unless raises from that player are rare, in which case you might be down to only AA, depending on that player’s raise frequency
  • for 3 bet sizing, again make about a pot sized bet, and not a min raise (there are some rare spots where min raising is brilliant, but on the whole it is a bad play, as you lose all reasonable fold equity, and also diminish the value you receive on calls when you are ahead)
  • flop: assuming you were the pre flop aggressor (the AG of TAG), which will usually be the case with this strategy, you will usually fire a 50% pot c bet
  • with one opponent, always fire
  • with 2 opponents, fire if you have 2 overcards to the board, any pair, or any draw with 6 marginal outs or better (the 2 overcards being an example of 6 marginal outs, and counting a backdoor flush draw as 3 outs)
  • with 3 opponents, fire if you have top pair, or any normal 8 out draw or better with any pair
  • with 4 opponents, fire if you have top pair and top kicker or better, and if you have 11 pretty high quality outs
  • with more opponents, just keep playing more and more face up… your chances of having the best hand have gone down a lot, and the chances that someone has a monster that will call any series of bluffs has also gone up a lot
  • on the turn, try to think of your hand versus your opponent’s full range (which at this level certainly includes every possible holding, though most of these holdings will have become a much smaller part of their range by this point), and many combos you are ahead of, and how many you are behind to
  • with hands that beat all but 20% of your opponent’s range, make a bet of from 50% pot to pot depending on your preference
  • with hands that lose to 80% of your opponent’s range, but have strong equity, make a similar sized bet, but keep track of turn bluffs versus value, and don’t let the bluff frequency get higher than the value frequency
  • make some smaller bets with both thin value, and with some other high equity bluffs, here keeping the ratio of value markedly higher; do this also on a very dry board with a monster hand if you almost all of your opponent’s range is usually weaker than top pair (and lacks big draws)
  • river: make big bets with your best hands most of the time, small bets for thin value, and some bluff catching checks when out of position
  • fire some bluffs on the river, both big and small, but here I’d keep the frequency fairly low, again keeping track of value bets made versus bluffs for different sizes, making these bluffs only when you sense there is an opportunity (or for some reason want to create a wild, bluffy image)

That’s Robo Tag. We’ll see you at the tables.

33

I thought I’d also mention that Robo TAG is fundamentally similar to my normal game, that I use when banging heads with other players in the top 100. Some areas where it differs:

  • my opening ranges are fundamentally wider, without increasing the frequency very much (meaning I select a broader range of starting hands, but have a lot of hands that I do not open with every time I get them)
  • my c-betting algorithm is most often not actually based on the cards in my hand, and I do not c-bet 100% of the time even heads up
  • there are countless nuances to play on the turn and river, which is where thoughtful players with a lot of experience probably have the largest edge over beginners and those that don’t seem to be very interested in improving their game; really no simple strategy can do much justice to all of the possibilities here
  • I modify my play based on what I think the most profitable exploits might be of the frequency and bet sizing errors I see (a simple example of this is jacking up pre flop bet sizes against someone that never folds pre flop, already included in Robo TAG)
34

Thanks for the updates!

I’m looking forward to knowing if you manage to make up these early losses!

All the best

Regards,
TA

35

Robo TAG results:
Tables played: 50/100 NL Holdem (9 max - Beijing Rush and Marrakech Market)
Hands played: 1,005
Chips won: $132,047
BB/100 hands: 131.39

Comparison of all styles played so far:

  • Pre-Flop Hammer @ 1/2: 222 BB/100
  • Passive Fish @ 2/4: 73 BB/100
  • Value Village @ 5/10: 220 BB/100
  • Lazy Limper @ 10/20: 244 BB/100
  • Pressure Cooker @ 25/50: 139 BB/100
  • Robo TAG @ 50/100: 131 BB/100

How would I rank the hands in terms of how I’d expect them to perform? Well, some will perform better at lower levels than others, but overall, if played at say, High stakes: #1 Robo TAG; #2 Value Village; #3 Lazy Limper; #4 Pressure Cooker; #5 Passive Fish; #6 Pre Flop Hammer

But that ranking is just a guess, and I don’t honestly have a high degree of confidence that I’m correct. I will roll through all of these one more time at medium stakes. I’m curious to see if Pre Flop Hammer will still be +EV at that level (I actually think that it will, but we’ll see).

Next up will be a LAG style, which I’ll be playing at 100/200. I haven’t decided on all the specifics, but think the following will be included:

  • much wider opening ranges
  • more bluffing spots, but still an effort to avoid letting bluffs outnumber value bets, and to find good spots for the bluffs
  • finding more thin value – as we bluff more, it actually expands the range that we can derive value from
  • new c-betting approach that does not care about the actual cards in our hand, and which achieves good balance
36

Oh, if any of you test any of these styles out yourself, I’d love to hear how they perform for you. The 1,000 or so hands for each isn’t probably enough to converge very close to the actual long term rate of big blinds won per 100 hands. If you do post results, please indicate if you played the styles as listed, or if you made modifications. As I roll through a second time, I intend to make small modifications to each in an attempt to improve performance, while still staying close to the original style listed, and aiming for simplicity.

37

OK, what might be the final simple strategy from me, LAG Problems, just got under way, and got off to an unfairly lucky start in the first few dozen hands. You’ll probably feel like I’m being abusive… here’s the very first hand right as I sit down:

For the next two, it is important to view them in order, and understand that these are really back to back hands on this particular table:

Anyway, I don’t imagine I’ll stay that lucky. And also, with this one, because the strategy is less simple than the others so far, I’ll post the mechanical details (though I may tweak some parts of this still).

LAG Problems

  • Opening (raising) range
    • 6: AA-66, AK-AQ, AJs-A9s, A5s-A2s, T9s-98s, all suited broadway
    • 5: +55-22, AJ, KQ, K9s, Q9s, J9s, and all suited connectors
    • 4: +AT, JT, T8s, 97s
    • 3: +all broadway, A9, K8s-K7s, Q8s, 86s-64s
    • 2: +Ax, T9-76, Kxs, 53s, 42s
    • 1: +Qxs, J8s, J7s, T7s, 96s, 85s, 74s
    • 0: + all other suited cards
    • blinds: still trying to make up my mind on the ranges here, but think I’ll actually tighten up quite a bit in these seats except as the small blind when there are no limpers in front
    • will usually raise with all of the cards above at least a decent fraction of the time even with limpers in front, though will limp behind some of the time, especially with cards that tend to have good EV multi-way
  • Continuation Bets against one opponent:
    • If ace on flop, fire 5/6 of the time
    • if king on flop, fire 4/6 of the time
    • if queen on flop, fire 3/6 of the time
    • if jack on flop, fire 2/6 of the time
    • if T on flop, fire 1/6 of the time
    • multiple broadway cards on flop, take full value of the highest, and add 1/2 value of remaining cards (so KJ5 would be 4/6 for the king, but only 1/6 for the jack, for a 5/6 chance of firing a CB)
    • with more opponents, divide final odds by the number of opponents, adding 1/6 to result (unless prior result was zero)
    • with 3 or more opponents, fire if you have a hand that you think is likely the best, but will not likely stay best even one street if you do not drop some opposition
  • Facing 3 bets (you’ll usually start to get 3 bet more when you play like this)
    • I’ll mostly over fold, maybe only calling with the top quarter of my range, and only 4 betting with very strong hands
    • if I see a 3 bet from the same person a second or third time, I’ll probably fold the bottom half of my range and raise the top half (I suspect I won’t bother polarizing my 4 bets at this level, but might change my mind)
  • On Turn
    • mostly continue in a manner reasonably consistent with your flop representation… but think there needs to be quite a few exceptions here, and still trying to decide which ones to add
    • if you fired a blank on the flop, still have nothing, but have quite a bit of equity, consider firing a larger bet on the turn, and do this also some of the time when you did not fire a shell, though less frequently (and in both cases keep track of your ratio of value to bluffs, trying to keep the bluffs within a target of your choice – I don’t recommend 5 bluffs for every value bet, though)
    • mostly size your turn bets so that they roughly reflect the equity you perceive your hand has, so that you make bigger bets with better hands; but think also about your table image, and also inverting this about 1/4 of the time (you can probably skip this last part at these levels unless you think you have a strong opponent)
  • River – none of your bluffs can be high equity any longer, and so you want to ask yourself a few questions
    • does it feel like I’ll get folds if I bet (does a bet here seem believable)?
    • does my hand lack showdown value?
    • have I shown down similar river bluffs recently?
    • is my ratio of bluffs to value still under control?
  • if you do bluff, size it by asking, “what size would I use if I had what my opponent will be worried I have?”
  • also don’t forget to make thin value bets: people will call you quite a bit wider than they would if you were playing tighter and less aggressively

For me, I find styles like this the most challenging to play against, especially in the hands of a pro or other highly competent player. It will be interesting to see how well I do with this, as I’m normally more of a TAG than a LAG (although some here probably think I’m a classic LAG). I think these styles are also pretty hard to play well… there are more opportunities for mistakes, or to go on tilt from bad breaks. This will also be more volatile, as you are taking risks more frequently, and it will be easier to see a lot more big pots.

Also, I think this range is slightly too wide for a LAG unless they have a skill edge over their opponents. But you actually don’t need to tighten this a huge amount to arrive at ranges you’ll find for 9 max tables that are supposed to be GTO. I don’t see very many people here open this wide even on Elite tables, until you get to the highest two levels, where there is a fair sampling of scary players that I imagine open with ranges roughly this wide. When you sit down to face these players, make sure you come with your sunglasses on. :sunglasses:

38

Modifications to LAG Problems:

I’m a few hundred hands in and doing really well. If the overall pace continues like this, I suspect I’ll set a new record for big blinds won per hundred hands. I continued to run really hot in a session last night. This morning, I pretty much stacked out on two tables, and lost money on a third. So it goes. Expect quite a bit of volatility with this style.

With a strategy like this, where you are playing wider ranges, especially playing them for raises, deep stacks are essential. As a result, you’ll either want to reload if you drop below 50 BB (or even 100), or modify the strategy. I’m choosing the latter:

  • tighten starting ranges while stack is under 50 big blinds to something like Value Village
  • if under 25 big blinds, either flip to Pre Flop Hammer, or, if you plan on reloading after getting stacked, you could switch back wide, and bluff at a very high frequency, so that it looks like you are tilting
  • readjust frequencies if you cross back over 25 or 50 BB thresholds
39

One more important point that is probably obvious to strong players that have played this kind of style before: you have to be careful post flop with a lot of these more marginal hands, especially at these lower levels in the face of another player showing strength. The hand below is a recent example:

You might say, how could I possibly fold there? What flop was I looking for, if I’ll toss top pair to a measly half pot bet on the flop? The truth is, there aren’t many flops that help a hand like that in a multi-player flop (maybe trips with my otherwise worthless kicker). What is the villain probably leading out with? Keep in mind, he’s not only betting into me, the pre flop raiser with the scary looking rank, but also everyone else that is still in the pot, and that he was the very first person to act.

Yes, there are a small number of players at this level that will regularly lead out like that with nothing, or with some kind of draw, and I hadn’t played long enough on this table to rule that out, but in general, there are 4 kinds of hands that usually make that bet:

  • a flopped set
  • two pair
  • an over-pair (not possible here, but worth considering)
  • top pair

Essentially all of those beat me, though I might hope to split the pot by the river against some of the other aces with a weak kicker. But how often does the villain even have another ace with a weak kicker? That will certainly crop up from time to time (though I have no idea why anyone would make that bet in that spot with a hand like that), but I think it is a pretty small part of the villain’s range.

So in general, if you find yourself getting called by many opponents before the flop, and end up with a middle value hand on the flop, but someone donks into you (or even worse if they check raise your continuation bet), just save some chips and fold.

40

LAG Problems finished. Ran incredibly hot the first few hundred hands, and then mostly icy cold for the balance. Funny how that goes.

LAG Problems results:
Tables played: 100/200 NL Holdem (9 max - Harbour Bridge & Mont Blanc)
Hands played: 1,006
Chips won: $252,090
BB/100 hands: 125.29

Next I’ll be revisiting Pre Flop Hammer to see how it fairs against generally higher ranked players on 200/400 tables. I’ll make some minor modifications, which I’ll describe with a little deliberate vagueness for now:

  • will make min buy-ins now, rather than buying in for the maximum possible, as in all prior test runs
    • expect this this improve fold equity value relative to the amount I’m risking
    • also hope this will result in more calls, as I think people will in general be a bit more willing to call these all-in jams from a smaller stack
  • will introduce a small degree of range polarization – normally you’d do this primarily to protect a calling range, which obviously doesn’t apply here, so the only point is to try to induce some more calls (and just out of random curiosity)
  • will also modify ranges as stack depth changes