Simple Probability Strategy => 2 + or more ways of winning

Keen to know what people think of this strategy based on having 2 or more ways of winning and loose early (look-see), tight middle and late suited card hand choice.
=> Fold all hands with a card less than 7
=> Fold Q & J combos with any card less than 10

  • EXCEPT A & K pairs suited 6 to 2, but A + a rag is dangerous as many more A pairs expected early and can be out gunned by higher kicker
  • EXCEPT Q & J + 9, 8 , 7 => suited preferred, with less than 4 players
  • EXCEPT Suited adjoining cards or near neighbors => 8-7, 9-10, 2-3-4-5 combos suited, etc (=> 2 ways of winning)
  • EXCEPT during cheap ‘Look-See’ period with cheap blinds =>2-pairs, straights and flushes abound early so vast competition


  • Late emphasis is on A K Q J for shoot out as seldom get to see and develop straights and flushes=> too expensive
  • Small pairs (2 to 6) OK early with small binds => Triples
  • Early => single pairs generally not enough for big bet => double pairs, flushes and straights abound
  • Mostly use small multiple bets => 2 blinds or half pot, EXCEPT to stop extra cards to block triples, flushes and straights

To many unknowns with the first being how many players preflop folded , remaining after the flop, remaining after the turn ?

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Of course, once playing a hand you need to play it by ear, assess how many ways you can win and how many ways to lose => very much depends on the numbers of remaining players and the stage of the hand. Cheers

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Yes, that’s what I was inferring to.

I’d also suggest varying hands played by:

  • seat at the table: you can play many more hands profitably on the button than you can in early position
  • based on whether or not there are raises in front of you
  • based on how the table plays in general: if players behind are frequently jamming all in pre-flop, there’s not much need to play hands you don’t plan on calling those raises with
  • based on stack depth: high card value is about all that matters as stacks get short, while with really deep stacks relative to blinds, suited and connected cards of lower rank, along with small pocket pairs, can become profitable to play

Yes, those are very good points. Thanks for you input.

Please teach your system to all my opponents.

yeah yeah yeah all in

Looks pretty good to me, except that I would fold hands with any card lower than eight other than some pocket pairs, depending on position, and level of blinds.

I don’t know about the suited king with the small cards. The suited Ace with a small card can also make a straight (using both your hole cards), but the king cannot. The King high flush is also vulnerable to the ace, especially when a fouth suited card comes on the river.

Of course, as ever, everything depends on the blinds level, the pot odds, stack size, style of play of opponents, and so on.

One thing you need to bear in mind is that the fewer hands you play, the higher percentage of pots you need to win, so you need to think a lot about the dynamics of the table. On replay poker you can raise five big blinds from early position and still get four callers, so even if you have a decent starting hand like AQo, if the flop doesn’t hit you, it has almost certainly hit somebody, or somebody is ahead of you with a pocket pair, so even these fairly premium hands may not be all that successful in the first hour of a tournament. This suggests that you need to get in with some speculative hands when the odds are in your favor. For example a hand like 7 5s is pretty useless if you are heads up against a raiser, but in a 5-way pot that is going to go to the river, it is probably as good as anything.

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All good points. The suited King with small cards still ranks high in the outcome statistics. As I suggested try some ‘look-sees’ early to try to jag 2 of a kind or a straight. Once again, even early it depends on the number of players left or could enter the hand, so position is important. The later you play, with fewer players left the more likely your big hands are likely to win. Cheers and Best Wishes

My winning chances table shows K + 6,5,4 SUITED having the following:
8 players 17% (A + 6,5,4=>19%)
6 players 22% (A + 6,5,4 =>25%)
4 players 31% (A + 6,5,4 =>34%)
3 players 40% (A + 6,5,4 =>44%)
2 Players 55% (A + 6,5,4=>58%)

Well, yeah. Of course your chances decrease with more opponents in the hand with you. Even AA drops dramatically according to how many people stay in the hand with you. That’s why it’s foolish to slowplay AA.

One option with AA is to mid range bet to see the flop and check for a pair in the flop => triples and for 2 or 3 suited cards => flush or 3 connected cards . But, Of course then, your opponents know what they have when you go all in then. This also builds the pot. An early all-in call pre-flop can yield very little if everyone folds.

No one said go all in, but you do need to bet or raise with AA preflop to weed out some of the opponents. So, if small bet sizes don’t do that, you need to raise your bet sizing preflop, and if someone 3bets you, you need to 4bet them.

Yep, I agree! Cheers