Opinions welcome!
Unfortunately, I don’t have any notes on him.
5X raise
FIREnDrano calls
^ He probably played the hand better by just calling
You should’ve just called the 5X to see the flop.
Have to put him on a high pair like QQ’s
If you had KK’s or AA’s, you should’ve continued, after the way you played your hand.
Replay’s tendency is to complete the boat on the river.
Your opponent probably was thinking that way with QQ’s, that’s why he shoved.
Possibly, he put you on AK and knowing he was ahead, put max pressure on you.
There was a pause before he raised you… I don’t think he expected you to bet so much.
Then he saw the flop and it was an insta-call…no hesitation whatsoever.
He appeared very strong at that point.
It all goes back to your big bet
IMO, just calling the 5x would’ve been your best option.
Interesting
Thanks for sharing!
Thanks for your feedback!
Flatting QQ oop, even for 5x, has to be a big mistake, no?
The 5x is only a pot sized bet because of the two limpers, and yeah, flatting QQ with a caller in between would be a big mistake.
i think it’s a much bigger mistake to fold here though. AA and KK have no incentive to shove. Some people will anyway, but I’m not convinced too many people are going to min 4-bet pre then 2x jam that flop. Seems more likely to be 99-JJ trying to protect against AK to me, but could also just be some random hand. If I run QQ into aces or kings, so be it, I’m supposed to lose a stack in that case.
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Timing tells are important! The 4Bet was slow, and looked like showboat Hollywooding to me! I expect to see AA KK & sometimes AK Hollywooding to feign weakness, but hands like 99-JJ to act faster and more sporadically. It would obviously depend a lot on players tendencies. Some players might not play like this but I think many do!
Despite AA & KK being a good hand to check back the flop & slow play sometimes I think most players on RP will rarely explore that route as you mentioned! But I think the some people is more accurately most on RP!
From my perspective a min 4Bet pre-flop w the nuts seems unsurprising to me and seems logical from the average player! Players sometimes milk w the nuts! I dont think most players thinks much about protection. This is a GTO concept I think most players drastically deviate from. AA, KK doesn’t need protection or has low risk Vs over cards on flop.
The pot on flop is fairly large after a 4Bet so I think most will get it in happily w AA KK & sometimes AK.
wouldn’t it be great if we could show a good laydown?
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Right, agree with everything you said there, except the flop and pre-flop actions are inconsistent. If the opponent is milking pre flop, why suddenly 2x jam? If you call the 4-bet and get one of the best possible flops for QQ, I don’t see how it can be a good laydown unless the jam increases the likelihood of them having AA, but I think the opposite is true.
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This is an MTT, not ring. I should have put that in the post! If this is a ring game I’m doing all sorts of things differently here.
I interpret the minclick 4! as frankly terrifying. What does that other than AA, and maybe a sliver of KK?
The insta-shove on the flop could be
a) weak, trying to look decisive;
b) strong, knowing it looks weak (leveling)
c) purely mechanical/circumstantial (I already made up my mind if the flop is low, I’m shoving)
Opponent is a top 1500 ranked player, FWIW.
Most importantly perhaps, I think my skill edge over the field is too large to justify potentially stacking off here in a pretty uncertain spot.
But in a vacuum, I think it’s closer than you do, assuming opponent is tight/not out of line. The minraise 4! probably isn’t at all balanced; I give villain AA, KK, and AK. And that’s kind of it. Weaker hands don’t want to invite me to call while further bloating the pot before seeing the flop, and even strong MTT regs on Replay seem to be significantly unbalanced in these spots, from my experience. It COULD be an exploit “bluff” with some weaker holding, as I’d been blatantly 3-betting way too often (as usual lol), but I don’t really buy that idea.
Iirc this was early/mid stages also (Edit: clearly this is the 1st blind level, whoops lol) and in general I prefer to prey on the fish rather than get into chest-puffing contests with the strong regs at that stage… though I don’t always take my own advice there!
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I think they’re jamming because they think they have the best hand and want all the chips in before anything bad can happen/just want my stack and think we’re both just gonna put it in on this flop texture.
Curious what range you give villain when/if the snap shove on flop does indeed indicate weakness? Like AK, suited broadways I guess? Somehow I just don’t see those hands min-clicking my very large 3! but I’m happy to be wrong
I don’t see why you think your opponent would expect you to get it all in on that flop. They can’t know you have QQ, which is the best hand you’re likely to have. If it is a value jam, it’s a pretty big blunder.
I think the min raise is at least as likely to be hands they don’t quite know what to do with like AQs, JJ, or hands they know they should bluff sometimes like A5s & A4s as it is to be aces. The villain might have decided to shove with any of those hands as soon as you just call the 4-bet.
If you’re only putting them on AA or KK though and aren’t going to call with QQ, then you should have folded pre-flop. A mistake was made at some point in this hand.
I just noticed you won this 5M entry tournament.
Congrats!
“Most importantly perhaps, I think my skill edge over the field is too large …”
Now, that statement makes complete sense!
The insta-shove on the flop could be
d) The realization (knowing his opponent) you wouldn’t risk your tournament life this early.
When you checked, he exploited your only weakness.
I agree; some players in a big pot will just shove when checked to, interpreting the check as weakness.
I dont think so! This is RP! A lot of players in ring games I play in will limp call AA KK AK or some alternatively limp 3Bet same hands. Its specific to players.
To me the BTN player has shown incredible strength to first raise and not over-limp. Next they 4Bet instead of call or JAM? I expects a lot of players in MTT would JAM w AK AA KK and some better players might min raise for value in position maybe hoping for Villain to JAM!
As I said on the flop the pot is fairly big! In an MTT i think a lot of player would JAM for value and hope to get called or maybe hope to not get called lol! I don’t think many players are checking or betting small w AA KK AK here.
You mean if the Villain would reveal their cards? Its a cool concept!
There is so many boring and useless new features on RP! If a player, Villain or Hero was able to reveal hole cards I think it could add some value!
Maybe add a trophy too! If a player shows u made a good BIG LAYDOWN you get a trophy from reveal on FORUMS!
Fun idea IMO!
I deff agree! Villain might have a bluff or draw etc but also could have AA KK AK IMO bc they think they have the best hand and either want a call or fold!
Oh, I agree that people will play aces this way. But it seems you also agree that it can be AK, and you can’t fold QQ here unless you are discounting quite a few combos of AK. Once you add in some random junk, it’s a trivial call IMHO.
Also, the pre-flop and flop are inconsistent. Like you say, a good player might min 4-bet AA or KK pre-flop, but shoving with those hands on the flop is not good. There are dominated one club hands that can call a small bet, but there aren’t many hands that can call a shove - and you’d get all the chips in against those hands anyway.
No matter your edge, you’re probably going to have to make much more marginal calls to win any MTT.
@Younguru I hope I’m not coming across as overly critical here, it’s only because you seem like a thinking player who will take criticism on board. If this was the main event where you only get one shot I think your justifications make a lot of sense, but on Replay where you can play many tournaments every day, -EV is just -EV, and I’m very confident that folding value there is -EV.
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I have asked for this multiple times but i guess Replay doesn’t like the idea.
Other sites i played at had it and was well liked, made for great conversation!
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Not at all! I posted the hands because I want insights 
I’m still conflicted on this one. Everything you say makes logical sense but my gut still says it’s closer than it should be on paper. Can’t pinpoint why.
Hopefully I’ll play this villain more and can return to this thread later with more player specific data…
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I agree it could deff be closer than @lihiue indicates.
Maybe it is a bad fold, no offence @Younguru. If its any consolation I’m also making the same fold frequently, but insta calling against a maniac willing to bluff!
I will look at Villains profile and try to get a read! I prefer to lean heavily on reading a playe, their tendencies & capacity to bluff etc.
It is a pretty epic spot to bluff in, and VERY deep for an MTT!
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