# Why do LAG players hit so much?

Played at two tables with CFW tonight, both times he raised huge with marginal junk hands that I routinely get destroyed with, and each time he hit the nuts and took huge leads early with them.

I need a mathematical explanation of probability that can tell me why players can play like this and hit ridiculous hands, while I can try to emulate this and mostly whiff while V who calls me either destroys me or edges me out.

Yes, it’s “why not me too” tilt. I still need to understand this.

Huge opens, even bigger raises, calling anything, hitting every time. Why.

CFW hands:

Q3 magically hits trip Queens to KO my 77 and beat ATo missing Broadway by a J:

Me hands:

I’ve ruined my week, losing 5 out of the money in a row, and am grouchy about it. Still profitable on the week, but now the 2nd place wins feel like wasted opportunities that I’m bitter about not winning at least half of them since I was way in the lead on all of them. Where I was once at 130% profit, I’m now down to 43%.

BUT:

• I can’t hit a flop for weeks at a time.
• I get ridiculous suckouts on me all the time. Donk calls hit miracles against my monsters.
• Flops come in 7-high any time I have two unpaired broadways, and anyone who calls my 10BB open should not have cards in the range that hits the flop well, BUT THEY DO.
• Any time I try to slow play or trap, not only does the board end up making it great for drawing hands, V is ALWAYS playing the drawing hand.
• It doesn’t seem to matter, as if I fast-play, V calls with wrong odds and sucks out anyway.
• Check-raising doesn’t work if no one bets after the check.
• They can check-raise me any time and always have a better hand when they do it and I call.
• I fold junk hands and watch them hit straights and two pair, trips, while the hands I hold out for to play can’t connect with a board more than 1 in 8.

I win too much to be a terrible poker player, but these hands make me feel like I’m a terrible poker player. And these hands are being played terribly. But I see other players playing terribly and vacuuming up chips 3-4 hands in a row and then dominating from there out with bully tactics.

I’m 1-5 on the night, now, with a 2nd place finish where I should have had the win, but lost the lead twice and couldn’t get any action on a late AA hand, but shoved 99 on the next hand, got called by T8, who lucked into a T on the turn for the biggest pot of the game. And fully four of the losses tonight were absolute giveaways where I played deliberately stupid because that’s all I see winning tonight.

Keep up the good work pugg, and start a rediculous hands thread too !!!

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So I watched most of those games and it seems like your just a really emotional player, once you feel the need to start cursing at the game… your doomed its time to hang up your boots and go do something else lol. You also give away a lot of information freely by showing your hands when others fold to your raise pre flop, as well as here in the forum, out of everyone on this site i know your game the best and yet ive never played you at the table, what does that tell ya lol. And as for some of your examples i have two questions for you: Puggs should I play K7o from early position? and Puggs is A5o a good hand to go all in on? I bet i know what your answer would be.

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Well don’t spend all my chips in one place, then.

@St33lo, @floridajetski neither of your responses are useful, and feel like you’re just mocking me.

I asked why do LAG players hit, and neither of you offered anything at all insightful to that question.

My emotional state has nothing to do with the cards hitting or missing my hole. It’s true when I run bad I tend to get emotional and this leads to playing worse, and makes a bad run go on longer. That has nothing to do with whether the cards connect with me or not. They simply don’t often enough for me to be able to play any type of LAG strategy. But I see others who do, and hit frequently.

AQ. I consider: every time I raise, flop is 6-high. In early position, opt to check-raise. Entire table @###@ing limps for the first time in ever. Typical.

I flop Q-high, and opt to just call a 200-chip open on the flop from the player ahead of me, rest of the table calls around. Board runs out a straight, 8-Q, 3 hearts on the board, everyone’s chopping this if no one has a flush or a King. On the turn anyone with a J has the straight. I don’t dare bet anything now. On the river, everyone has the straight.

Someone else shoves the river, and I dump the hand. Great strategy.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/563911753

Now, in late position, were I to raise AQ, I’d take it up to 500-700, get 1-2 callers. I’d hit top pair, top kick, no one would bet into the flop, I’d put down a pot-size bet, and get jammed. Figuring top pair top kick is pretty good, I’d call, and get ruined by either two pair, trips, or the board chop, or someone on AK making a T-A straight on a 8-Q board, or someone who had random two hearts playing loose and hitting miracle flush.

playing the worlds smallest

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LAG = Loose AGgressive. In almost every hand, raising and re-raising almost every hand. Somehow has it almost every hand. Wins and loses big. Lots of ups and downs. It’s in poker books. Don’t pretend like we’re confused on definitions or I don’t know what I’m talking about.

A player who 3-bets and jams all-in when re-raised while holding A6 on the first hand of a brand new game is LAG AF. They KO TT, not even flopping a set can save TT, double up, and go on to raise any other player 3-4x their open no matter what they’re holding, and somehow just manage to win, KOing 2 more players in big hands where the beaten player’s starting cards were better, and it should have been suicidal to play. Blinds are 30/60, open to 150? Let’s make it 1400. Now they’re just beating the table with a bully stack. I know they can’t possibly have it every hand. Blinds are up to 40/80, then 50/100, they already have 12000 chips.

I see it happen in every MTT I play, too. Within 5 minutes, someone has tripled up, while I’m grinding through the low blinds folding garbage hand after garbage hand for 45 minutes until I catch a pocket pair or a high suited Ace, and lose my stack with it when it flops me either nothing or a mirage.

I don’t think I should win every hand I play. That’s a distortion, a caricature, and an insult. I get it, you think I’m a big crybaby and you’re sick of me, but it amuses you to poke me with a stick and get me more angry.

If I think I’m entitled to anything, it’s merely what probability dictates. Not hitting flops 5-10% of the time for extended periods lasting 2-5 days, several thousand hands, instead of the 1/3 of the time probability dictates. I’d like to see plays not backfire on me sometimes. If I trap someone, holding KQ, I don’t want to see them show me AK. Or KJ but end up with trip Jacks on top of the pair of Kings we both flopped. If I slow play trips, I don’t want to see the board run out a freakin straight for the board. If I hold a pair, I’d like to see a flop that isn’t suited or a pair of overcards. I’d like to see a c-bet that doesn’t get jammed. I’d like to see my folded rags NOT run out a full house or straight while I’m waiting on AQ so I can see a 9-high board make set for someone playing 77. I’d like to see my shoves not magically summon AA.

It’s true, I have been complaining about all of that for months. Congratulations for noticing.

THIS thread, though, I’m just asking: how do LAG players get into every hand, throwing around 2/3-3/4 of their stack seemingly every hand, and not go bust in half an orbit, like would happen to me if I were to try it? How do these @#%@#\$ers hit so frequently, when I’m lucky to hit anything more than middle pair 20% of the time.

It’s a simple question. Explain to me, how probability works, such that when you raise even junky hands, it makes best hand more than often enough for it to be profitable.

And if you don’t have an answer to that, then go away.

lol, was actually trying to help u. no one said that you said u feel entitled to win every hand u play, talking about the hands u post that u actually say u shoulda won. I play loose aggressive only when i feel its profitable. the bottom line is that those players u see doing that and win like that several times only last so long and they actually are the players that bust their bank roll the fastest…go look at those same b rolls a week later and tell me if their up or down, or prob outta chips completely. solid increasing winning of hands/chips consistently with no ultra huge swings is the only way or best way to climb the ranks because you dont have to make up as many lost chips as they do or start over…almost all of them go bust over and over playing that way and are never in the money over the long haul. ive seen thousands of those players here and almost every one of them just re starts their bank over and over and they get no where bank/rank wise, those are the easiest players to knock out and win all their chips in rings because they are too easy to read and so predictable after seeing a few hands played and they bust out much faster in rings than tourneys of course but u dont play rings and see that but i see it a lot in rings…way more than tourneys, the whole table is looking to get their chips the most… u just need to know the right ways to play them and when. one trait most of them have is when u become more aggressive then them and re raise their large bet at the right time, that you will see more often then not that they fold… you can take down their bets very easy that way…of course those strategies in tourneys are much different against those type of players, especially if your wanting to win or at least place… they just go backwards and u are seeing just a short micro view of their winning hands in a micro time frame. i actually didnt view any of your hands so i cant comment on the specifics as far as those are concerned. im just talking in general about many things from your topic and those type of players ive played against, and i can tell u most of them are very similar throwing free chips ( well a lot of those type of players prob buy many because they cant sustain winning enough to last ) around the tables not taking the game that serious wanting to expand on their play and game.

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Puggy,
Play the Bankrollbuilder 500 B&R 25 times, before the break play as its 3k blinds. Your goal is to make that profitable. If you can, you will have answered your own question.
(hint: get 14-20k by break, leverage that going forward )

I don’t mock you, yet ANY costructive critisizm we offer falls on deaf ears.
Have you ever tried playing like they do? The LAG players ?

Its proven, those who think they will lose, usually find a way to do so.
You have created a pre-disposistion for losing, and its working.
Add to that you’re so cinical and negative, how do you even play ?

You’re darn right they are. Try it sometime, you might like it. ( just remember you have to earn a stack before you can bully with it , by hook/crook )

Then stop playing a “grinding” style, and swich it up, 1/2 the time.

By now we ALL know whats gonna bug you, we know your fears, when we see Puggywug across the table we drool. Its really tough to get out from under that reputation, unless you chg publically how you talk and how you play on the tables.
( you’re gonna have to be very convincing that you did chg too )
You attitude and reputation is handicapping you more than you know.

Respectfully,
Sassy

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Lol I wasn’t mocking ya, I’m a Kiwi, we don’t really do that Its against our nature, It gets beaten out of us with sticks shortly after birth (unless your Australian of course and theres sports involved ) So, how do you beat LAP (loose aggressive play)? simple, use SSTAP (super sneaky tight aggressive play) not to be confused with TAP (tight aggressive play) its the SS part that really wins the day, what you do is… limp your monsters, call their raise, if you hit the flop, check, raise all in, cross your fingers, if you lose have a bourbon at the ready and if you win make sure to be polite and say tyvm for the chips… job done, also avoid the next hand because they’ll likely go all in pre flop hopefully on tilt. Thats about all I got good luck…yes ive been drinking because just like poker its fun (drop).

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You are right, they do go straight to the top, but most of the time, if you watch, they don’t cash. Most people keep playing the way they got the chips and eventually lose. The trick is to keep the chips once you get them - not an easy feat (I tend to win more tournaments from behind than I do as chip leader). By the way, playing garbage hands at the beginning of a tournament, when you can do it cheap, might help you. I love playing poker. Sitting and waiting for the right hand is hard for me, which is why I actually do better when I am playing at least 2 tables, lol. I can be more patient now that I play more tables, but I learned how to profitably play marginal hands playing one

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Super sneaky is definitely the best play, but prefer irish whiskey

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Well since u got to let your steam out for the night/day then u should be all set till later today/tonight and it seems more of that is important to u than any advice u say u want on here. If it works so well for them every time then why arent you playing that way? If you dont wanna see or play with as many of those players and its messing with your game and diminishing your play and game than move up to 500k and 1 mill tourneys. Do u actually not think u will see those type of players on a free chip site with the stake level of tourneys u are playing? or try high rings where its much easier and faster to take those types out and even win way more chips just by playing tight or super type/aggressive like st3lo said and then check/raise the heck out of them…an example is yesterday playing on a 5k/10k ring table this player was raising from 10k to 30k every single hand he played and some players were getting ticked off, he did this and did well for about 30 or so minutes. i knew he would bust out soon and i flopped a boat and check/raised him, he shoves all in and i won his whole stack…he had a pair and he immediately left the table. most players love a player like that on the table and its just a matter of who will get all his chips…before that hand i re raised his normal 30k pre flop raise and he folded almost every time .also you can see way more flops in tourneys in the 1st 2 or 3 blind levels while its cheap. There is nothing wrong with coming from behind to win most tourneys either when that doesnt work. You have to learn how to play and beat every type of player and their styles but u have to adjust your style and game too at any given time at any given table.

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1. I am not here to vent, in this thread.
3. I am asking for math people to explain how probability works, such that LAG play works.

Any further responses to this thread that do not address (3) will be flagged off-topic.

Not venting. Another example of LAG doesn’t work. (for me)

Q9 v AQ, river 9 to my disadvantage, as always.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/564014439

So, explain me why Q9 is re-raising a pot-size open, and then calling a shove. In what world does that make a bit of sense.

Here’s another 1-and-done.

TT vs KJ. KJ raises 2BB, I 3! pot. KJ alls-in, I call. Naturally they immediately pair their J on the flop. Anothe 10k buy-in flushed down the toilet on the very first hand for me.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/564015564

LAG works so good!

So naturally, I fold the 37 I’m dealt on the first hand of my 3rd, game, watch the 3 pair the flop, and A6 take the hand with A-high. If I shove pre here, clearly A6 is an automatic call, and gets wasted by my super 3s. But I’m just not intelligent enough to play this way, and far too cowardly.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/564016598

But I do have a knack for flinging away chips for absolutely no reason. Here, I donk shove A7 and get called by A9. With absolute certainty, even though there’s no need for it in order to win, the flop gives V a pair of 9s. Now I can win the hand by running out trip 7s, and that’s it. Does it happen? I do not have the skill to put those cards in the deck, unfortunately.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/564018242

Well, it is obvious.

You had a micro-mini stack and the big stack should have called with any two cards, then the button called with position, then the small blind joined in with AT, so your pair of 7s was up against 3 overcards plus the two cards of the button who folded at the flop, that were probably >7. I would have folded the A T so as not to give you a chance to treble up, and not to get into a shitting match with the big stack, but that is me.

You were blinded out, you had to shove any two cards, and 77 was a hand that gave you a bit of a chance.

Also note that all of your opponents were very low-ranked players, so what do you expect, Doyle Brunson? The question you should be asking is how you got yourself into such a desperate position in the first place.

When you are playing against players who will call any shove with a pair, then you shove with the nuts or near nuts.

Chips beat position. Cards beat chips. Position beats cards. Skill beats all.

If someone puts in big raise from an early position that could well be AK, there is only a 1 in 3 chance that they will be hit by the flop. If you reraise from the SB with a trash hand and the flop comes with no A or K, then very likely the early raiser will fold to a lead out bet, and you will win a very large pot. Or maybe early raiser has Aces and thrashes you. Or maybe the flop hits you hard and you make two pairs and crack the aces.

A play I have seen a LOT recently on RP is that I make a positional raise with semidecent cards and small blind reraises and then shoves the flop with ?? forcing a fold when I have nothing. The SB can even bluff when an Ace falls on the flop, perhaps themselves representing AK or AQ and forcing a fold from any pair lower than AA. These are risky plays, but some players will fold rather than risk losing their large stack.

Cards are just one factor, and in the long run everyone should get the same cards. Far too much emphasis is placed on the rankings of hands, based on their probability of winning from preflop against any other hand, but the probability of winning when the flop is known is quite different, and the probability of winning in a mutiway pot is almost impossible to estimate on the fly.

Here is the very last hand I played in a little 100.000 chip sit and go. I lost all my chips and finished out of the money when AK rivered me, but I have no regrets.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/563876290

My opponent was one of the lowest ranked players on RP and I wanted him to call my bet, and he did, but I lost the hand. That’s life. His odds of making an overpair to the flop on the turn or river are approximately 1 in 4.

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@puggywug, you’re spending wayyyy too much time focusing on how the board runs out. The CFW hands you highlighted are a prime example of this.

On the JJ vs KQ hand, JJ had 56% equity preflop. Yes, they were lucky to realize the 11% equity that they had after the flop hit… but that’s still something that’ll happen once out of every nine runouts.

On the A6 vs TT hand, A6o had 28% equity. Again, they were lucky to hit the board and win the pot. However, if they’d paired the ace instead of making a straight with their six, would you have posted this hand? What’s more important - that they had 28% equity when the chips went in the middle, or that they managed to make a straight?

In the hand you busted with 77, you only had 38% equity against ATo and Q3s when you jammed. You’re going to lose this hand most of the time. Don’t worry about how the board ran out - sometimes ATo will make a four-card flush, other times Q3s will hit a four-card straight, and other times the board will run out with one of your competitors making trips or quads. The runout is unimportant; what matters is that it ended up as part of the 62% of boards that would hand you a loss.

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The game certainly hinges on how the board runs out, doesn’t it?

I have no problem with losing hands I’m supposed to lose “most of the time” most of the time. It’d be great, though, if the hands other players are supposed to lose most of the time, would actually lose most of the time. Then I might be able to win a chip.

Here, this just happened. I finally had a good outcome.

AQ, I open to 300 chips. A short stack playing 99 shoves (reasonable move) and is called by another player (J4; not very wise). This puts me in a difficult position, figuring I’m looking at QQ KK AQ, maybe I should leave it. I decide to call, though, and pair the A on the flop, while J4 pairs the J. No one improves further, and I KO two players. So, once in a while, I can see a hand like this. It’s just, the “norm” for what I see is inverted probability outcomes.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/564023627