When you think you've got the best hand

Yep. My bad, wrong explanation. I edited it, I’m playing while I made this actually didn’t try to check the replay but when I lose that’s where I only get to see the replay then edit it.

It would’ve been fun though if they had all waited for the flop and bet after they all had boats lol.

Even after the flop they couldn’t bet much more than all in.
And hey. you just can’t beat a pocket pair pre flop can you?!
Pretty hard to justify the odds of that hand with any RNG. Yeah I know, a room full of monkeys with typewriters yada, yada. shrug-smiley%20(50x50)%20(2)

Pretty unbelievable that 5 player would all have a pocket pair. What a rare hand!

The preflop play here is pretty interesting, once you get through all of the limping.

I like the open from Mindreader with 9’s in the small blind. Sizing is large, but reasonable - he’ll be out of position after the flop, 9’s are a really strong hand to start but will be in a tough spot on most boards, and there are a lot of limpers to drive out.

I also don’t mind the jam by Oklahoma. Other players have displayed a lot of weakness, and most limping ranges will need to fold to such a large 3-bet. With a smaller 3-bet, it would leave him with an awkward stack size behind. Mindreader may be trying to make a play at the pot with a weak ace or suited broadway hand that should fold, and if he’s holding a low-to-medium pocket pair, he might decide to fold those too.

Requiem’s call… is pretty bad. I could maybe understand limping to set-mine on the first time around. However, facing a 3-bet, a pair of 3’s is a coin flip against overcards at best. More likely, he’s facing a higher pocket pair or two, and will be drawing very thin. This should’ve been a fold.

nikedu has to be pretty happy at this point. Trivial all-in. That said, by the end of the preflop action, he’s going to have just 44% equity - better than all the other hands, but it’s never fun to have less than a 50% chance of winning a hand when all the chips are in the middle.

With Jacks, needing to call for my tournament life facing a few jams, I think I’d fold. Not happy about it, but even if I’ve got the best pocket pair out of the folks I’m up against, I’d be somewhere around 50% to get knocked out of the tourney.

Ditto in Mindreader’s spot the last time around, with nines. Let it go, and live to bet at another pot.

Fun hand to analyze!

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The odds of this are roughly 1 in 30,000. Someone far more obsessed than me put together data on this phenomenon. Sauce.

For eight players, there are C(52,16) * (1 * 3 * 5 * 7 * 9 * 11 * 13 * 15) = 21,006,454,335,649,657,875 ways of dealing eight players two-card hands.

In parentheses are shown the exact probability, the approximate probability using the independent binomial assumption, and the ratio of the exact probability to the approximate probability.

N=8 Players

No Pair : 12,952,160,151,935,374,656 ( 61.6580 %; 61.5699 %; 1.001431)
One Pair: 6,436,718,641,227,663,360 ( 30.6416 %; 30.7850 %; 0.995344)
Two Pair: 1,420,395,848,998,993,152 ( 6.7617 %; 6.7342 %; 1.004084)
Three Pair: 181,664,175,195,689,472 ( 0.8648 %; 0.8418 %; 1.027354)
Four Pair: 14,716,813,939,542,000 ( 0.0701 %; 0.0658 %; 1.065306)
Five Pair: 772,570,615,474,944 ( 0.0037 %; 0.0033 %; 1.118482)
Six Pair: 25,638,362,624,160 ( 0.00012 %; 0.00010 %; 1.187766)
Seven Pair: 491,218,535,808 ( 0.0000023 %; 0.0000018 %; 1.274393)
Eight Pair: 4,155,760,323 ( 0.000000020%; 0.000000014%; 1.380032)

TOTAL DEALS: 21,006,454,335,649,657,875 (100%)


When you win, your the smartest player on the site. When you lose everyone
else on the site failed th follow your logic. Gedt use to it


Never trust pockets… shouldve folded when he raised 5 5 >:frowning:

The pocket 8s beat both of you. It is pretty hard to fold AA or KK though.

I think its one of those hands you just go all in even knowing you have bad odds… damn :sweat:

When you flop quads, you almost certainly think you have the best hand. Not always the case by the river: https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/468500901

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OUCH! If we had a bad beat jackpot, that would’ve won it.

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That hand was nutty!

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More like ‘kick in the nutty’ from my perspective :wink:

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I thought that I had this hand. It is what it is.What a pain. Hand
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/483176145 .


3rd time this has happened in last week: https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/483486737


You had a legitimate call, but so did the winner with both the top trips + top kicker and a straight flush draw. He got lucky, you didn’t. Golreza, on the other hand…

Yup - can’t fault the call with his hand on that flop. He’s behind only 2 hands, 33 and 4/3 (and he’s blocking 4/3). It was just one of those dream scenarios where you think you’re lucky to get that much action and then … LOL, not so much

I thought about whether I could have played it any differently and the only possible option would have been to 3-bet from the SB and maybe get A4s to fold. Not sure if that would have even worked because people have a heck of a time laying down suited aces. Then there was the possibility of me being 4-bet jammed on and 33 isn’t a hand I want to go for stacks with.