Tournament Victories and Bad Beat Defeats

Poker Discussion
42

Even if it was 5 handed, A9 would usually be a continue 35bb deep. In this exact case there’s a really short stack, so I’d probably consider it a blunder if they’re an experienced tournament player who should be taking that into account and folding almost everything, but in terms of hand EV, it would be a blunder to fold here. They also might not care about guaranteeing second and just want to win, in which case their play is also good.

The problem is, anyone who isn’t taking into account the short stack, isn’t considering what you have either. They’re just looking at their own hand and deciding if it’s strong enough to continue. They might have noticed you’ve been folding often, but it’s not going to factor into their decisions much, if at all.

If you give them credit for observing the short stack and that you’ve been really tight, then your bluff is actually suicidal, because they should only be in the pot with aces or kings, maybe queens, and none of those hands are folding.

43

Also, as someone who bluffs a lot, I understand the frustration of being called down light. Happens to me all the time, and my initial reaction is always to lambast my opponent too, but after the initial frustration, it’s extremely valuable to go back through those hands and try to be as objective as possible.
In this specific case, I’d start with examining your river decision. Your opponent can have a lot of missed draws, almost all of which you beat, so do you really need to bluff here? If you think your opponent is aggressive and likely to bluff their missed draws, might a smaller bet work?
Working back from there, if AK has showdown value on the river sometimes, then it also does on the flop and turn, so is this really the hand we should be turning into a bluff? Also consider that AK is a hand that opponents love to put the pre-flop raiser on. This is definitely not our best bluffing candidate.

I get it, I still make this mistake to this day too, even though I’m aware it’s a leak in my game. You are card dead for ages, get a hand that should be winning, miss the flop and decide to turn it into a bluff against a weak range. Problem is, those are really not the hands we should be turning into bluffs.

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44

I wasn’t a short stack in the A9 hand, I was about 100k chip TIGHT APPEARING CHIP LEADER, vs 68k 2nd in chips. I would expect a LOWER ranked player to only look at their A9 hand, and not think about what I am raising UTG with. But A9 was ranked 2200, and with that ranking, extremely close to final table, and with 68k, 2nd in chips, at the 50k, 100k buy in level, whichever it was, I would expect such a player to think about what I am raising UTG, and not just only their A9, and postflop, I would expect them to fold A9, bottom pair of 9’s vs my preflop, and postflop ranges, rather then extremely greatly risk busting out before the shorty stacks, on the final table bubble, 75% to 85% to 93% of the time, 16, 17,18 times out of 20 times, if they call with bottom pair of 9’s A9, first 6k, then 25k, then a tripple barrel, 27k to 37k to 47k all in on river, with only bottom pair of 9’s A9, they are usually going out of the tourny, in that kind of spot.

Like I said, I am only making that kind of play about .5% of 1% to 2% to 3% to 4% to 5% to 6% to 7% of the time in that kind of spot, against a high ranked player, with a stack size that looks bluffable and on final table, big pay out bubble, and if have a tight image, and that looks like they are bluffable, etc.

Like I said, no way in Heck would I have called with A9 preflop against a player that seemed as tight as me, and no way in heck do I call with A9 bottom pair all the way to river vs a player that seemed as tight as me.

You might think that’s suicidal of me to bluff like that, but my tight raising UTG range crushes villains tight calling range, and I definitely had a range advantage, and the Q96 board fits my range advantage better then A9. As I said I could easily have had TT to AA, AQ, KQ QJ suited, postflop, when, if tripple barrel BIG all 3 streets, which crushes A9 bottom pair.

Also I’m not putting villains range as extremely good on the BB, etc.

If I thought Villain to not be able to fold, or had seen villain call station call, I wouldn’t have bluffed that spot.

But I had seen Villain make disciplined folds, lay downs.

It was a good bluff against a villain that made bad calls preflop, postflop.

45

I didn’t say you were short stacked, I said there was an extremely short stacked player (the third player still remaining). In that case, they can just fold everything and wait for you to bust out the short stack, essentially guaranteeing 2nd place (if that’s what they care about).

I don’t, at all. But then I’m willing to accept I’ll get called down with second pair at some frequency. If you expect your opponent to only ever have better than that to call on the flop, then it becomes at least questionable to continue to barrel. It’s hard to move someone off top pair.

Why do you continue to insist you were UTG when everyone can see you were in the small blind, 3 handed, where ranges are supposed to be extremely wide?

So you expect their range to be weak, but don’t think A9 should call? I don’t think your reasoning is very consistent.

Nope. It was an at best average bluff, against a villain who made a mandatory call pre-flop, and who played at least ok post flop.

46

You are getting your hands mixed up.

The A9 hand was 4, 5 handed and I did raise about 3 x to 3.5 x to 4 x you said 3 x, to about 7.5k, and it was UTG. that hand was in fact 100k+ chip leader vs 68k in chips.

A FEW, SOME HANDS later, after, when 1, 2 busted out, THEN it was 3 handed, I had about 30k left over from the A9 hand. And I shoved about a 8.5 to 9 to 10 to 10.5 to 11 bb stack, 30k all in on AT that got called by A5. That’s the hand your thinking of that was 3 handed, that I probably raised on SB. It wasn’t 3 handed for the tournament, it wasn’t top 3. In that hand it was 1 spot away from final table of 6.

As to why I didnt let shorty stack bust, instead of shoving 30k all in on SB, is that with a short stack, I’m not going to squeeze pop thru final table bubble to final table, and am going to play to win, double up, take blinds and antes and 1, 2 limps pot after pot, until I have a 16+ bb stack, and at least some preflop, postflop min raise, etc, playability. About 14 bb’s I’m going to shove AT suited on SB, 3 handed and not wait for shorty stack to bust, as I am playing to grow my stack as opposed to blinding out, as I am playing to top 1,2,3 not to just barely squeeze, pop thru the final table bubble.

So your getting the hands mixed up, turned around.

Also if the A9 hand had been just 1 spot away from final table, instead of 2,3 spots away from final table, that would have been even more reason for A9 bottom to middle pair to fold to a tripple barrel all in from me and just let the shorty bust out to make final table, and that would be even more reason to make the tripple barrel bluff move I made.

47

I’m not expecting Villain to call with a top pair range. I’m expecting villain to call with AT, AJ, and to 3 bet KQ suited, AQ suited, AK, JJ to AA, etc.

That means Q96 more likely hits my range, and for Q96 to hit A9 middle pair at best and more likely AT, AJ nothing, and that if had A9 middle pair that would probably rightly fold that to a tripple barrel all in considering Villain was ranked 2200 and that it was the final table bubble, just about 2,3 spots from final table, and since there was a shorty stack to bust out.

That was a bad call by villain BECAUSE as 16, 17,18 times out of 20, in that kind of spot, if villain calls a tripple barrel all in from me on just only middle pair, they are going BUSTO right out of tourny instead of having about 30k left over and making the final 2,3,4,5

48

I think the point is that you seem to focus too much on isolated spots that you analyze from a pretty narrow perspective. This perspective may not accurately reflect villain’s thinking; in fact, it seems the point of most of these posts is “I thought they would have this range, but they showed up with another hand instead.”

Instead of writing these instances off as frustrating losses due to your opponent’s bad play, you could think about where your expectations deviate from your lived experience and use the resulting insights to better exploit your opponents :smiley:

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49

Well said.

In this case, the villain makes a bad call if they want to walk away winning the most chips, but a good call if they only care about winning the tournament and don’t care about the difference between finishing 2nd or 3rd.

I don’t think it’s appropriate to label them a fish or a donk when we have no idea about their motivation or reasoning. It’s understandable to feel that way in the moment, but it’s not very productive. It’s kind of an unwritten rule in poker to never criticize the fish anyway, so even if the play was absolutely terrible, ranting about it on the forums is poor form IMHO.

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50

QQ, KK, AA should be 3 bets preflop, so since villain didnt 3 bet preflop, villain likely didnt have QQ, KK, AA. Villain likely had a range of A9 suited to AT to AJ, to 44 to TT, AQ, AK, JJ to AA would likely 3 bet, so no not a suicidal bluff. And considering that 16, 17, 18 times out of 20 if they call tripple barrel all in with A9 bottom pair, they go BUSTO, it was a bad call.

And a 2200 extremely high ranked player, should be considering the shorty, and the whole situation, and not just think, I HAS ACE, AWESOME, and only thinking about their hand.

That’s the sort of mentality I would expect from a 700k ranked player, and not from a 2200 ranked player. I would expect the 700k player to just call. I expect the 2200 ranked player to be smart enough to fold, and not be a call station.

51

Is that range tight enough IF they’re taking the shorty into account? I actually have no idea, and I doubt too many people do either, but if I ever found myself caring about securing 2nd place, I’d likely only be playing QQ+, AK, and just calling with all of them. I was explicit initially that I only consider it a suicidal bluff against that super tight range.

I have no problem with it against the range that’s supposed to call from the big blind, it’s just not necessary as you have a ton of showdown value against that range. FWIW, solver says it’s a 0EV bluff, but it much prefers just calling down. Villain has a mandatory continue on every street, so they’ve actually played their hand correctly.

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52

Also, totally as an aside: be careful excluding QQ+ from players’ ranges if they don’t raise/3bet pre around the bubble. I’ve seen a lot of Replayers use a limping/non-reraising strategy with those hands in that configuration. Why they do it I won’t bother speculating; I just know it happens more often than I would have initially expected.

53

Solver is going by standard theoretical GTO against standard theoretical GTO, and not by exploitative nuanced situational play.

Going by exploitative nuanced situational play, etc, the bluff is semi good, and the calling tripple barrel all in with just A9 bottom to middle pair, semi bad, semi fishy, as 16,17,18 times out of about 20 they are going BUSTO if do that.

Of course the solver that doesn’t look at all the situational variables would find the bluff 0, zero EV, and the calling a tripple barrel all in with A9 bottom pair to middle pair, +EV in that situation, because it’s not going by all the situational nuanced variables.

54

That’s all true in general, but in this case, solver is checking back 60% of the time on that flop. I’d be fairly sure pool is c-betting here more often than that, so this is going to be an over bluffed spot. I think exploitatively this is a better call down, not worse.
That might not apply against you specifically, but it’s a run-out that’s very easy to over bluff, so absent very specific reads it can’t be even semi bad to call down here.

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55

Also against players ranked below 10k to 13k to 17k to 20k an or players that are call stations, etc, I’m not tripple barrel all in bluffing, as against them they’ll get a cbet, then if they call, they might semi probably get either a check or 1/2 pot double barrel, about 50/50 split chance, depending on player, situation, then check 67% fold, 33% call, depending on situation, player.

If I am against a 7k to 10k to 13k ranked player range, that folds, then I cbet half, then double barrel pot, then if called, check fold 85%, call 15%, depend on situation, player.

Only way I’m tripple barreling, all in all 3 streets, is if in this specific kind of spot, vs a 3333 ranked or better ranked opponent, that folds.

In any other spot, situation, or in this situation, but with shorty stack, with a low ranked player, they getting a cbet about 77% of time, then 25% of time half pot on turn, 75% check turn, then check, call 33%, fold 67%, depending on player, situation.

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About 76% chance they are getting a cbet from me. So cheap flop call. calling 25k pot bet, questionable, debateable. Calling tripple barrel all in, against me specifically, they are going to be behind, bust, get knocked out 16,17,18 times out of 20, so bad call vs me specifically, against a average, normal player, debateable, questionable call, and against a hyper loose, hyper agressive player, maniac, etc, then a ok call down of a tripple barrel all in.

That is of course perception, but the way I would have perceived myself, if I was other player, is that I would have perceived myself as semi tight, good image, etc

57

Here is a bad bad beat in the 250k buy in 5 mil GTD, I was taking a 1 time between semi shot to shot to try to get a huge cash, win to try to goto from about 4 mil to 5.3 mil, as I had the 250k to spare, which if lost would knock me down to 3.9 mil, to get the very bad bad run monkey off back, at least for a semi longer long while.

The semi extreme long, bad, semi near semi epic bad run bad run, that was going thru had a very a LOT of bad beats like this from semi fish, semi hehaw hehaw hehaw hehawer’s.

Also I’m posting it because its a bad bad beat, and because I need the practice of posting real Hand History hand links, so that get into habit of doing that, and to remember how to do it, etc.

After this semi very semi extremely recent bad beat knocked out by a semi fish, semi hehaw, hand, in the 250k buy in 5 mil GTD, I then took 2nd in the 100k buy in, 1.5 mil GTD, PKO, that would have won, as I dominated all tourney long, was chip leader, until at the semi end, 4,5,6 handed, about a 23k player, semi fish, semi hehaw, called a 3,4 way all in preflop with GARBAGE, vs AA, and each of the 3 other players having EXTREMELY strong hands, and sucked out a 1,2 outer on the river with a MIRACLE card on river, for a miraculously lucky suckout, to give them a 67k stack, new chip leader advantage over my 44k stack, that they then started playing well, semi outplaying me at times, locking everything up, grinding me down to 33k from 44k, and them up to 73k, where in heads up, either I shoved my about 15,16, 15.5 bb, 33k stack all in pre with AQ suited, heads up, and they called all in with QQ about 73k, 33 bb stack, and out I went in 2nd. if they hadnt had that miracle 3,4 way miraculous all in preflop suckout on the river with their GARBAGE, TRASH, etc, I would have probably won, as the largest stacks were about a range of 7k to 13k to 23k stacks compared to my chip leader stack of about 44.5k before 23k stack trippled up via its TRASH all in pre hand miraculously ultimate butlucked the river.

But hey at least I am about 4.875 mil about 165k ahead of the previous highest bankroll, when the Bankroll went from about 4.675 mil to about 2.7 mil, because of the bad run before the winning the 100k buy in 3 mil GTD, AND the 2nd place finish in the 100k buy in 1.5 mil GTD, PKO.

Now to post that 250k buy in bad beat out hand history.

Hand #1171741473 · Replay Poker

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My Replay Marathon Grand final luck hasn’t been good. This hand history is just the latest example. A very high ranked player that I have often seen limp AT suited to AK, TT to AA, KQ suited, under gun, early positions, on a very limp happy passive, never ever raise preflop unless have a AA type hand table, have often seen do that in a lot of other tournament. So it was probably about 27% to 30% to 33% to 37% to 40% chance that the Villain or some other player was limping A9 suited to AK, KQ suited, KJ suited QJ suited, 88 to QQ, that would limp call all in preflop. So I targeted that with AK shove, if they call I am likely dominating, coinflip at worst, with a ok, decent chance to get called. And if they fold I get about a 400 chip pot added to my 4400 stack, and its a way to test to see if I can squeeze shove steal, scoop limps later with marginal hands like A rag, if players not limping monsters on such limp happy passive tables as much. And if I raise to 350 to 600 to 1700, I would have gotten about 3,4 callers, and been 4,5 handed postflop, and could easily have a bad board, miss flop, get outflopped, semi easily lose, get played back at, lose a lot if cbet a missed pot. Villain limped AQ suited UTG, and most to almost everybody limped behind. Villain might have thought that was getting his AQ suited limp bailed out, by my shove, but I had AK instead of A6 suited to AK, 44 to 88, KT suited, KJ suited, KQ, QJ suited, etc trying to scoop the limps.

AQ initially sucked out a Q initially all in preflop, then I got a broadway straight, then AQ hit runner, runner about 1% chance to runner runner a flush by, on river.

So my Replay Marathon Grand Finals 20 mil GTD luck has been brutally extremely bad so far, but small sample size so far. Hope Grand Final luck will, and it probably will turn around.

Here the Hand History Link.

Hand #1172085686 · Replay Poker

59

@Asuronetorius

Are you betting based only on a player’s rank?

That’s a new one for me, I always bet and call based on the cards dealt to me and how the other players have been playing.

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60

That’s not really how odds work. You’re all in pre-flop so none of it matters anyway, but they are ahead on the flop. They only need to river the flush because you turn the straight. They’re ~20% to win at that point, and about 5% to chop. Not that far off the odds they have pre-flop, and getting AQs in against AKs is totally standard. Whoever loses that hand is pretty unlucky really.

61

Ranking is not the only factor. Notice the “That folds part” If I observe, see players fold a LOT, that’s a factor. A semi highly ranked, to very high ranked player “COULD” be more likely to fold, in certain spots, dependent on situation, my image, etc. Therefore I will both observe, watch those targets even more, and test them a bit, in what appears to be semi safer situations to see if they do know how to fold, etc, as their higher ranking might, could suggest. Also if a player is very low ranked player, very low ranked plars are often POLARIZED to either being a LAG(loose aggressive), or a TIGHT NIT PASSIVE. And so they become a target to be observed, watched, tested, etc, to see if they can fold, as their low ranking might suggest.

That said can’t, shouldn’t put too much stock into rankings, but they are, can be a factor, that can semi influence play, in addition to all the other factors.