To Call or Not to Call, That is the Question

Poker Strategy
22

Spot 6:

9 max table; a player in the highjack seat posts a big blind from having just sat down at the table. I’m in the cutoff and raise to 4.5 big blinds. Hero, with AJ (he didn’t say if it was suited or not, but let’s assume it was AsJs), calls from the big blind. The small blind folds, the big blind calls, and the highjack folds. The pot is $1,455,000 after the rake.

On the flop of 9h8sAc, the big blind makes a pot sized donk of $1.5 million into the field. The pre-flop aggressor in the cut off (me), folds. Hero on the button with top pair and a good kicker calls, and the pot is now heads up with $4.4 million in the middle. Hero has $13,398,500 left behind, and covers villain with $12,125,000 left behind.

The turn is 3h, villain massively over bets the pot by shoving all in.

Context: none – we’ll pretend you know nothing about villain except his rank in the top 300.

Call or fold? If you employ a mixed strategy, how often do you call here?

23

Here’s another nice one from Phil Galfond. Do you call or fold with KTs?

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25

I think it was 3 handed (based on the graphics at least – the way Phil describes the action makes it sound heads up), with villain raising on the button and hero 3 betting with KTs from the small blind. Hero is someone named “Danny” that submitted the hand for Phil’s review. On the flop, out of position with top pair, hero does not fire a continuation bet, and so I wouldn’t usually describe the half pot bet by villain after hero checks as a donk bet.

I’m not sure what I would do here either, but found it insightful how Phil thought about the decision of whether to call or fold on the river.

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26

Deleted my earlier post as I thought V was UTG and H was BTN, so my take on the hand makes no sense. The video overlay of PG’s head in the top left during the hand runout threw me off me. Watching it on mute the first time didn’t help either. V’s story only makes sense if they have a flush. They can’t have an ace high flush, since they checked the turn with top pair. They probably don’t check the turn with QTc QJc JTc T8c 86c 65c having a combo draw, or 9xc having pair+draw. There aren’t too many flush combos in an opening range that check the turn. I just have to pay this since the price only requires me to be right about 25% of the time.

27

Spot 6 Analysis

Facing an over bet like this, AsJs on a 9h8sAc3h board is just a bluff catcher, ahead of none of the hands that would make this bet for value, but ahead of all of the bluffs. Facing a bet of this size, minimum defense frequency is pretty low, and so you don’t really need to defend with much of your range, and so folding seems like the safe bet… but should you call some of the time? Are there many ranges you might be up against where you have the equity you need for the call?
So once again, what are some different types of range you might be up against?

• I think some players will make this over bet with sets only, and no bluffs at all.  Against that type of player, this is a mandatory fold.
• There are other players where the over bet in this spot is almost always a bluff or a weak “value” hand they are trying to “protect”.  Against this type of player, this is basically a snap call: you are probably ahead of almost their entire range and will have equity over 50%.
• Your equity against a more mixed range with a fairly high density of bluffs like 99-88,A9s-A8s,A3s,JTs,J7s,98s,76s is 40.19%.  40.19% x $16,525,000 = $6,641,397.50 versus 59.81% x $12,125,000 = $7,251,962.50… even with straight draws without a flush draw also making the over bet, you loose more than you win calling here.  If you get rid of some of the relatively thin value two pair holdings it is probably enough to tip a call into profitable territory, but with A8 actually shown down, I’m not sure how many you can dump…  It might also get worse if villain is going for even thinner value with a hand like AK.

When you have no read on what type of range above your opponent is likely to have, you have to decide how relatively abundant these different types are in the pool of players you are up against. I tend to think that a balanced mix is actually the least common, and that the super value dense group is the most common, at least at the stakes this game occurred on. In short, I think this is typically a spot where you want to fold top pair, pretty good kicker, like hero did.

28

6 I can appreciate BB donk betting full pot 3 handed with middle two as it’s vulnerable. Also there is a decent chance the original raiser will check back since BB has an ace in hand and there’s an ace on the board. So it’s less likely CO has made top pair and won’t c-bet into 2 opponents.

But once it’s HU on the turn the 3x pot bet is asinine. This is what I expect from someone playing with scare money and just wants the hand to end. There aren’t enough bluffs to balance this with. I assume an unknown player in the 100-1000 ranks is taking the strategy of bluffing small and value betting large. As BTN I just fold for this sizing without a set.

And yes it’s a snap fold for you with AJ. Having a J means you block JT which is the most logical bluff for BB to donk with.

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29

Spot 7

Here’s a hand were I got lucky with a questionable call. I don’t know what the opponent’s re-raising range is likely to look like…

If I had to do it over again, should I call or should I fold?

30

Given your removal and that I expect an unknown player of his rank not to be capable of finding a logical bluff shove on this board, it looks like an easy fold.

The best reasonable scenario for you is he was sandbagging QQ-KK preflop, in which case it’s effectively a flip and the call is +EV.

But I don’t see this as too likely without a background on the player, such as noting that they trap frequently. Preflop by flat calling BB offers BTN an attractive price to chase with a wide range. Allowing yourself to take QQ OOP 3 handed is like asking to be stacked. It would be such a bad move that I wouldn’t expect an unknown to be doing it. I’m sure at first he felt very clever for running this basic deception play but all he did was miss value and take a foolish risk.

Your equity requirement is around 35%. Giving him no bluffs and only value hands of sets straights and 2p, most combos in this range are either close to this threshold or well below it. For me it’s a fold without knowledge of this player’s tendencies.

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31

Well, given that the player is willing to sit with 1/3 of his bank, I would assume a certain amount of recklessness and think that he has quite a few bluffs there.

I hate to go old school on you, but Sklansky’s Fundamental Theorem comes to mind…

If you would call if you could see his cards, it’s not a mistake.

If you would fold if you could see his cards, it’s a mistake to call.

As a tournament player, it’s a fold for me. It’s closer in a ring game, but probably still a fold.

1 Like
32

I think you may both be right that it should have been a fold. I thought he might be overvaluing a lot of top pair type hands here also, and if those were not in his range, then the call fails to break even.

Spot 7 Analysis

Button open limps, and small blind raises to 4 big blinds with AsQs. Big blind calls and button folds.

Flop is 7h8sJs, and the small blind makes a bot sized bet, and the short stacked big blind raises all in. It costs $8,073,000 to call, and there is $13,273,000 to win (total pot will be $21,346,000 if a call is made).

Some general thoughts:

• Since the big blind is a relatively small stack (~50 big blinds at the start of the hand), they have more “value” hands with which to make this bet, and top pair and two pair type hands may be in range (it takes less to justify the shove this short stacked).
• The pre-flop call should reduce combinations of JJ+ (though we see after the fact that the big blind did in fact have QQ)
• Suited combinations of T9 should certainly be in range for the big blind, and possibly even off suit combos.
• Villain also has sets in range
• We block many of the bluffs in range

Hypothetical range with no bluffs at all, but with thin value:

• 2 combos each of JJ and QQ (JJ seems most likely pre-flop, and post is blocked by the board), and one combo each of KK and AA
• 8 combos of T9 (all suited and 4 off suit)
• J8s and 87s
• full combos of 88 and 77
• All combos of AJ, KJ and QJ, and JT

Against this range, AsQs has 44.38% equity on the flop. 44.38% of $13,273,000 = $5,890,557, and 55.62% of $8,073,000 = $4,490,202.60. So against the range described, the call works out, and any bluffs in range just improve the situation. The main question: is there really that much thin value in range? If we remove all top pair type hands, equity drops to 34.26%, and winnings are now $4,547,329.80 versus losses of $5,307190. So for this call to be correct, there have to be quite a few bluffs or thin value type hands in the big blind’s range.

33

I wouldn’t think he has many bluffs in that spot. Maybe a few combo draws, but you block his most likely flush draws pretty hard. I wouldn’t think he’s bluffing.

I think he was getting 2-1 on his call preflop, so he might call fairly wide there. On the other hand, he wasn’t closing the action, so he should tighten up some.

Thin value, on the other hand, seems very likely to me. I wouldn’t expect him to call preflop, hit the flop, and just give up. With that board texture, I would expect him to jam any hand that he connected with in any way, as in, any pair. The pot sized bet would look like made but weak hand or good draw to me, whammer jammer and see how much he likes his hand. I would probably convince myself that I had enough fold equity to give it a shot.

But I would also expect him to jam 2p, sets, and straights, especially if he unblocks spades. It’s kind of a tricky spot.

34

I agree that there is a reasonable population of players that would approach it that way. If he is making the bet with no bluffs at all, but all top pair hands or better, then the call is mandatory. If he has “value” hands even weaker than top pair, then the call gets just that much better.

35

Put into a tough spot on #907819165

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I bet flop and turn for value/protection in what was a 3 way pot and get flat called.

Villain a top 200 player donk jams river for roughly 70% pot.

Was he slow playing 66? Did he make trip jacks somehow? Missed flush draw bluff?

What do you do?

36

The jack on the river is a good card to bluff with, at least in the smaller tournaments I tend to play.

But his line doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Is he really calling flop and turn with 2nd pair? Wouldn’t he usually check raise the turn with a flopped set? Wouldn’t he bet less to extract some value rather than risk you folding to his jam?

To me, his line is fishy as hell. I would put him on a missed flush or weak ace and make the call, especially since the paired jacks counterfeits hands like A6 and A4.

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37

I just felt like such a trap.

One pattern I notice about players in his rank strata are they’re frequently slow playing, especially in situations where it would make no sense to do so. Such as flat calling with a set on a wet board in a multiway pot.

Something about Replay must allow this to be a profitable strategy. I guess the endless supply of bingo players punting off their bankrolls make it +EV long term.

Having only seconds to decide in the moment I could think neither any bluffs or value hands that made sense. I made vacuous call, if you like. Turning A8 into a bluff was an interesting choice. It’s possible since I’m so aggro in these tournies he thought he was value betting.

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38

Well, any KcXc or QcXc could easily be bluffing there, though I would usually expect AcXc to have enough showdown value to check the river.

If you’re getting trapped there, meh, it happens. I just don’t see how you can fold given his line.

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39

I want to add that I try to see the hand through my opponent’s eyes.

What worse hands would he expect to call his jam? Not many, at least in a tourney.

But there are some better hands that might fold. A9 and AT come to mind, maybe a few others.

I get trapped a lot because of the way I play. It didn’t seem like a trap to me.

40

My hand blocked the Kx combos. An Axc wouldn’t logically shove with showdown value. QTc Q9c make some sense. But then he was chasing the third nut flush in a multiway pot from out of position.

The more I think about this hand I think he was just bored and wanted to leave.

41

I dunno. I think that he thought there was a reasonable chance you would fold.

It could be that he had you on some sort of weak ace with a flush draw.

42

I think (and obviously) he was just making a Bluff move.

I had him on an Ace with a poor kicker also had you on an Ace with a J, Q or K kicker, the way you were raising. He obviously should’ve folded on the River but felt he had to make a bet and couldn’t just check to you. Obviously, he should have made a small raise and if you were to re-raise then he should 've folded.

At the River, he was only in for around 40% of his original stack.