The poker hand analysis thread

My pleasure Webagel. It was a good exercise for me and I’m sure my rudimentary analysis gave SPG a few laughs as well. The thing is, so many hands can be played so many ways that no one answer is going to be the absolute “correct” one, despite the mathematics. I’m preparing for a live tournament later this month and watching a lot of poker hands now to get ready. Some of the hands I see played are almost unthinkable to me at first so I have to spend some time thinking about them.

One that struck me that I saw last night was a hand during the final 6 of the Alpha8 Las Vegas WPT event. Sean Winter opened AQo from the cutoff and was 3-bet by Fedor Holz on the button. Both blinds folded so it came back to Winter. He laid the hand down.

On 1st look, that seems unbelievable. A seasoned pro laying down AQ pre-flop against just 1 other player after just a 3-bet. When you look at the hand more deeply though, you realize why he made the play. He was in a 100K buy-in event and the pay jumps from 6th to 5th to 4th were huge. Fedor Holz had almost 50% of the total chips in play so had a huge lead. Also, there were 2 much shorter stacks on the table so he made an ICM calculation that he was better off folding the AQ and trying to outlast the short-stacks than playing the hand in which he may have been at best a slight favorite. (The chips in his stack already were worth more than the chips he potentially could have won.)

Anyway, going over hands with other players is usually beneficial to everyone involved, especially if they are coming at it from different styles or perspectives. Understanding how someone else sees a hand, even if you disagree with it, helps us play similar hands in the future with a greater awareness of how the other guy may react.

Best of luck to you going forwards.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/273627642/straight-ten-to-ace

Enjoy SunPowerGuru … there’s a badge…

I like badges!

no analysis ?

Well ok, if you insist. You won’t like it though.

Limping AK is weak. You let anyone and everyone into the pot. You got lucky you only got one caller.

Min betting the flop was weak. What was it supposed to accomplish? Anyone with anything or any draw is gonna come along. I would have raised you to test your mettle.

Your min bet on the turn was weak. Again, what were you trying to accomplish? You now have a possible straight and 2 flush draws on the board. I’m shocked he didn’t lower the boom on you, but he probably wanted to see if the flushes hit. Big mistake, that.

Qd or Qc might have made a flush, so you really had like 2 outs from the turn.

Your bet on the river was OK, and of course you’re gonna call his raise.

Oh, and, ummmm, nice hand. :slight_smile:

Many players here (often high stakers) like to do this min bet thing. What is the idea? When I watch professionals play they never do such things… I’m wondering who started this and why it has become fashionable. Thx

and about the hand it seemed like a really bad beat

Hi Webagel,

First, the games you watch on TV are highlighted hands so you get a sense that “pros” always raise. I don’t think that is the case. Notwithstanding, I agree there is a “lotta limping” here. I think it is the general problem and much of it is that newer players have no sense of value so they just want to play.

I know in hi lo almost always there are at least five or six limping in. It is a Mecca for good players because there should be no more than two or at most three playable hands.

I think you will learn if you watch the top games with the highest buy-ins you will see much less limping.

Scratch

SunPowerGuru,

This plays far differently than a SnG/MTT hand. I thought you might do the other side. I didn’t think I misplayed the hand. If I remember correctly I was on this table a whole 5 minutes, and 7 hands total. I was hunting a badge, but my opinion of Ring Games are … BorinG… wait till you get the nuts basically and extract max hand profit, wait… rinse , repeat.

I was only here for 1 goal… win a 500k pot.

I limped preflop waiting to see a small raise that never happened and re-raise.
I min bet the flop only to see where I was in the hand, representing top pair.
I min bet the turn again trying to see where I was, representing the J didn’t scare me.
At this point, betting 10k into a 60-100k pot is great return on investment even if they fold. Of course if I’m not getting raised I’ll stay with the story I’m telling… The river hits hard and doesn’t bring the flush… I thought 44k was enough to take the pot, and got raised. Trap or no trap, it springs shut and I shove… goal achieved.

I did the min buyin 500k to table, I was committed to spending 50k on decent hands… even if I cheesed off 250k in the process. Personally I saw this hand as the table was feeling me out and playing small-ball, to cut thier losses, till an accident happened… 2 ppl hit the river… fireworks. If 2 people both think they are sett’n a trap, then both hit the river… it always gets ugly.

Ok im really curious to find out if anyone has some thoughts on this situation and if this is alright to do. Here is the hand:
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/274616791

I am pretty deep in a tourney and look down on K,Q off suit in the Cut Off, I have 18 bb left.
Every one folds so I decided to make a move on the blinds and prevent the button from limping with anything.

I get called by the button and big blind. I perceived the big blind as an Solid player, the button seemed like a solid/reg type of player but maybe a little more on the passive side.

Big blind checks, and i decide to c bet to tell a story of a big pair. I do have two over cards which might be good and I have blockers for, QQ, KK, AQ, AK. AA we can rule out because this would have raised preflop.

I guess my main question is if you like checking better on these type of flops or cbetting?

Thanks in advance.

My initial response was that if you got by always scary Creed (BB) you would be home free if you hit a Q or K, which you did at the turn with the continuation bet. The K allowed you to take down the hand. Trips would have raised and put you in so your river bet was added value. Good aggressive poker.

(Creed is better than his 180 ranking, up there with the best in my opinion.)

Nice hand; well played.

Scratch

Scratch thank you for the timely response. When I referred to the “min bet thing” I didn’t mean preflop, I was mainly talking about the flop, turn, and river bet. Of course I just received the explanation from SassySarah and I’ll be the first to weigh in. What would you have done if you got raised on the flop? And what about the turn? You practically can’t bluff if you brick the river. Not easy to hit runner runner nuts on a daily basis… usually when you min bet it turns into dead money. Thx

Very interesting question, I too wonder what to do on a paired dry board such as this one after a preflop raise from you or an opponent. I think position is a crucial part, usually your opponent will have air there and even if they sense you have nothing it is very difficult to continue out of position. Out of position is a different story, a very smart player can tag along with absolutely nothing to bluff the turn and/or river. To wrap up I believe that in this particular hand you made the right play (especially deep in the tournament players tend to tighten up). Of course it was unfortunate one of the players had a pair there although it seemed to work out in the end for you :). Cheers

Yeah I figured he was an above avarage player. Thanks for the analysis!

Yeah it did and got max value nonetheless. Thanks for your opinion!

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