Some basic hand odds with flops, turns, & rivers
These odds won’t really affect your game strategy, but it’s interesting to see how rare certain premium cards are. It’s also important to realize that many players overvalue random suited cards or a single card which are dealt relatively frequently. However, the odds that these hands will improve are much less frequent.
Probability of being dealt: - - - (rounded to the nearest tenth)
•Any pocket pair: 16 to 1 (5.9%)
•Two suited cards: 3.25 to 1 (23.5%)
•A-K (Big slick – suited or offsuit): 81.9 to 1 (0.9%)
•Any single ace: 5.7 to 1 (15%)
•Pocket Aces: 220 to 1 (0.5%)
•Pocket Aces or Kings: 110 to 1 (1%)
Odds of connecting with the Flop. This is where true strategy and comparing pot odds to the actual odds of hitting a better hand come into play. Listed is the most essential common situations of what you’re looking to hit on the flop. It’s a wise idea to try to commit the approximate values to memory so you can quickly make pre-flop decisions at the table. - - - (rounded to the nearest tenth)
• Hitting another kind of your pocket pair (making a set): 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
• You will pair at least one of your unpaired hole cards: 2.1 to 1 (32.4%)
• Hitting two or more of your suit when you hold suited cards: 7.5 to 1 (11.8%)
• Hitting a flush on the flop with suited hole cards: 118 to 1 (0.8%)
• You will hit two pair on the flop with unpaired hole cards: 49 to 1 (2%)
The flop is the turning point of a Hold ’em hand. This is where you’re going to make your biggest and most expensive decisions. Knowing the odds of improving your hand after the flop is one of the most important things to remember.
MORE IS COMING SOON
Odds of hitting a hand by the river from the flop
The following set of odds is the likelihood to complete these hands by the river on the flop, so with 2 cards to come.
On the flop, when you have:
• Four cards to a flush, you will complete it by the river : 1.9 to 1 (35%)
• An open-ended straight, you will complete it by the river : 2.2 to 1 (32%)
• A gut shot straight draw, you will complete it by the river : 5.1 to 1 (17%)
• Two pair, you will complete at least a Full House by the river : 5 to 1 (17.7%)
• Three of a kind, you will complete at least a Full House by the river : 2 to 1 (33.4%)
• One pair, you will complete at least three of a kind by the river : 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)
• An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete at least a straight by the river : 0.9 to 1 (54.1%)
• An open-ended straight flush draw, you will complete it by the river : 10.9 to 1 (8.4%)
-All-in One-on-One in Texas Hold ’em-
This comes up most often in tournaments when only two players are involved and one of them is all-in. When all of your money goes in pre-flop against one opponent no further decisions need to be made and the cards will be dealt to the river to determine a winner.
Pre flop matchups when played to showdown:
• Larger pocket pair vs. smaller pocket pair (AA vs. KK): Larger pair is at least an 80% favorite
• Pocket Aces vs. unpaired cards (AA vs. KQ): Pocket Aces are at least an 80% favorite
• Pocket Pair vs. over cards (QQ vs. AK): Pocket pair is at least a 52% favorite (commonly referred to as a coin flip)
• Pocket Pair vs. one over card (JJ vs. A10): Pocket pair is at least a 66% favorite
• Over cards vs. Undercards (AK vs. Q10): Over cards are at least a 57% favorite
• One over card (A3 vs. J10): Over card is at least a 50% favorite
• Better kicker (AK vs. AJ): Better kicker is at least a 70% favorite
STILL MORE COMING
For those of you that aren’t familiar with the ‘2 and 4’ rule – it is a quick way of calculating the percentage odds
of completing a draw. It works like this:
•Multiply your outs by 2 when you are on the flop waiting for the turn.
•Multiply your outs by 2 when you are on the turn waiting for the river.
•Multiply your outs by 4 when you are on the flop waiting for the turn and the river.
Most common mistake is multiplying by 4 after the flop because you have the turn and river left to go.
THE ONLY TIME YOU SHOULD MULTIPLY BY 4 after the flop is: "When Your opponent is all-in.” SO I WILL REPEAT
“When facing a bet on the flop, do not multiply your odds by 4 UNLESS your opponent is all-in.”
OUTS- COMING SOON
Thank you so much for reinforcing this idea. It probably is one of the biggest mistakes people make and they wind up overpaying for draws. Good stuff!
WHAT ARE OUTS?
You have already seen how the relative strength of a poker hand can increase or decrease as flop, turn, and river are dealt.
For example A♥A♦ is a big favorite against A♣K♣ pre-flop, but becomes a huge underdog if the flop comes Q♣8♣2♣
Or If you have a hand that is probably losing, but has the potential to improve to a winner, (i.e., a drawing hand) you need to decide whether it is worth continuing with it through the various stages of the pot. In short, you need to identify the cards that will improve your hand - known as “outs”. you will need to learn about making further calculations based on your “outs”, but first you need to identify what is an “out”.
The best definition is simple: “outs” are the cards left in the deck that improve your hand, ideally to make it strong enough to win the pot at showdown.
Example With a Flush Draw
You are holding 7♥A♥ and the flop is: 4♥9♣8♥ . Although in some circumstances your ace high might be winning already, you do not actually have a very strong hand. Not yet, at least.
However if another heart appears on the turn or river, you make a flush, and unless another player has a full house or better, you will win the hand. ( IF THE BOARD IS NOT PAIRED NO ONE CAN MAKE A FULL HOUSE YET)
-Counting outs on the flush above-
There are 13 cards of each suit in the deck. You hold two of them, and another two are on the board. Four of the 13 hearts have therefore already been dealt, meaning that there are still nine hearts left in the deck. This means there are nine cards that can improve your hand to a (probable) winner. You have nine outs.
Example With a Straight Draw
You have K♥10♣ and the flop is A♠2♦J♣ . Now any queen or nine will complete your straight. There are four queens and four nines in the deck, so you have eight outs.
If one card is missing to complete a straight, you will only have four outs. For example, if your hole cards were J♥K♠ and the flop was A♦7♥Q♠ , Your outs would be 4 since A ends you will only have the four 10’s 10♥10♦10♣10♠.
Great post. Thanks a lot.
Just 1 Question:
Sorry I dont see the 9 as out in this sample. Have I missunderstood something?
Good catch, I choked when posting, here is how it should have read the first time! Sorry & Thanks for catching that John…
Example With a Straight Draw
You have K♥10♣ and the flop is Q♠2♦J♣ . Now any “Ace” or “Nine” will complete your straight. There are four Aces and four Nines in the deck, so you have eight outs.
If one card is missing to complete a straight, you will only have four outs. For example, if your hole cards were J♥K♠ and the flop was A♦7♥Q♠ , your outs would be 4 since Ace is top end, you will only have the four 10’s 10♥10♦10♣10♠.
Thanks again John, I would hate a new player being confused by something I did