The fairness debate

I’m a big stack who never bought chips. I have over 38 million. It’s really easy to win on this site. People play crazy and they often get lucky but it’s very easy to end up way ahead

OK, well have to agree to disagree then, since try as we might, we can’t fix something that’s not broken.

If you want to drop an email to the team at support@replaypoker.com we can run off a script that analysis your recent hands and send you the results, you might find it an eye opener.

Hey joe,

You pretty much have a choice here – and it’s one you have to make. You can believe we run a fair site, one that we’d like to see grow with happy players, or you can believe we’re spiteful enough to hunt down individual players to mess with their cards in hopes they’ll spend a couple bucks on play chips. We keep breaking records and getting bigger, so one of those seems a lot more likely to us. =) The surest way to mess that up would be cheating the people we rely on and consider friends.

With that in mind, what would it take to prove to you that we’re not manipulating anything? Is there honestly any data any poker site could provide you that you wouldn’t accuse of changing? We’d be happy to review your hands and check statistical distribution if you’d like to email into support@replaypoker.com. Note that we’ve found that it takes about a bare minimum of 5000 hands to be a revelant sample.

As you know, you can see our randomness certificate by checking the bottom of any page on www.replaypoker.com. Or click here for it: http://www.gamingassociates.com/certificate/ReplayPoker_Certificate.pdf.

Ultimately, thought the decision is with you: if you believe you’re not getting a fair shake, you have the option of continuing with us or not. We hope you’ll stay, enjoy some poker, and continue providing us with feedback. =)

We’re here if you have any questions and, seriously, thank you for being so passionate about Replay.

I love the name, “semi-connectors”, cute.
It’s way off topic but I loved it so might as well share. No pun intended, it’s not to get under your skin, I just never saw it that way :smile:

Now purely on a hand review, I know you get an OK price to flat but you’re OOP. You’re down to 4, you can smash like 5% of the time and have something (by that I mean if you include oesd, f draw) like 23% of the time so I’m not a huge fan of your PF play.

Then you have a rainbow but connected medium board and you hit two pairs so betting is fine especially if you had a tendency to cbet. You get called by someone who hits a pair not shocking even if it’s an over bet.

8s comes up on the turn, and that is a bad card for you. it makes your 7 worthless so you don’t really have two pairs at that point and you shift from value to show down value.

You have way more combos that beat you on the turn. Any 9 with a better kicker, any over pair, 8x, 77, 99 straight etc. And not many second best hand calling your shove.

Now I’m shocked that he called w/ A7 but again it depends heavily on your history and I don’t really have the time to review the whole SnG though I grant you that he looked fishy in this hand (limped with A7o, called an over on the flop).

It just so happened that you got called by one of the few hands that you crushed and he got lucky, well it happens. Just don’t play suited 2-gappers OOP and the problem is solved.

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You played the hand fine, but because it is a very low stakes game (meaning people don’t really know or care how to play poker), the other guy made some bad decisions and called you and then got lucky. That happens to me all the time.

This morning in a 50k tourney, a guy raised big (1/3 of his stack), I had AQs in the bb and re-raised him all in, and he called with K7 offsuit. He hit a 7 on the turn to win the pot. That is poker. He was dumb and called with a 33% chance to win (although he may have been pot committed), but he still had a reasonable chance to get lucky, which he did.

I still finished ahead of him and cashed the tourney even though I was crippled by that. I still have 38,000,000 chips because it is easy to end up ahead when you make the right decisions, even when luck goes against you sometimes.

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https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192458584

Well I was there so I can give the context. Kimara was basically shoving every hand pf after he lost a huge pot, he was at 120k at some point and then dropped.
So the idea for everybody was to wait for a decent hand and call his shove. Inca600 limped so given that context I’m not too thrilled to call the shove with Kc8c since inca600 is sitting at my left. That being said yeah he won a 28/72, it happens, as a matter of fact it happened 4 times in this particular session, he won 4 times a 30/70. I’m fine since there’s a high chance to take all his chips I’ll take the +EV play every time.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192465764

You both played the hand really well, so luck decided for you guys I’m not shocked.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192461705

I don’t understand your 3 bet, I don’t understand his call on the flop/shove on the turn and I really think your hero call was a bit audacious but well you had a good read.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192672937

He probably had no clue but his call was actually +EV. He got roughly a 30% pot odd, and he’d about 33% of equity so it’s nicely +EV (135) and he got to knock out two players guarantying a big chip lead. I would have made that call, even more so with such a small buy-in.

I think you’d be better off trying to build a 200k bankroll (you’re close) by playing tourneys and then go to 10k SnG. The competition will be better so you should perform better as well. Less suck outs, bit less variance, more room to bluff etc.

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I agree. At higher stakes the poker is somewhat more “realistic” than low stakes.

Bad poker players are generally calling stations, even when playing for real money, so you can’t expect bad players to fold for play chips. They are happy to go all in with a naked flush draw. But you should be happy too because for every 1 they win they will lose about 2, so you will come out ahead. Or, if you aren’t happy with those odds you need to get your chips in later in the hand so that there is less variance, but that’s a more complicated issue…

yeah joe the odds are in your favor, but i still just bet 80% to pot to push out flush draws / get them to call with bad odds. I don’t like the overbet shove and then having to pray to RNGesus. Some people just check to the calling stations “Because they call anyways” but that’s such a bad play, just giving them free cards. If the flop is a obvious flush draw board texture i will just bet around pot vs bad players then shove the turn if it doesn’t complete the straight / flush. If i get sucked out on after that i’ll just take it, but 2 cards to come is too much RNG for my liking.

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Here’s another example where I could just say “The site is rigged”, but if you think about it there is still a good chance that I will lose regardless of the fact that I played it correctly.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192719244

I knew the two opponents were bad players and probably didn’t have pocket pairs. The flop was safe, so I shoved. The guy called with nothing (and was dominated by my 2s) and then hit trip kings by the river. I was 60+% to win preflop and 80% on the flop, so my play was profitable in the long run. 40% and 20% are still substantial odds, so he will win a noticeable amount of the time, and it always hurts when he does and feels normal when he doesn’t.

Sidenote: playing pocket 2s like I did was a terrible play in general, but it’s another example of how players don’t play “realistically” in low-stakes tournaments because I don’t really care about losing 1500 chips if I make a mistake, so I am more likely to trust my read (that they didn’t have pocket pairs) than if I were playing for a million chips or for the WSOP bracelet.

It’s also an example of how making a high variance play like calling with 2s can hurt you even in the (rare) cases when it was the correct decision because even when you are ahead on the flop it is a thin edge (bottom pair).

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Moreover you’re playing it for the leader board I guess, so you’d rather get busted early so that it doesn’t affect your points, in that case the way you played it makes sense.

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Yeah I was actually just playing for basically no reason while waiting for a bigger tournament to start, so i was ready to get knocked out.

Here’s another example of a bad player making a bad play and it paying off:
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192732412

He raises from the BB, and he is the chip leader after seemingly always having a hand. I know that he is a bad player, so I call from the button with QT, which is a really bad hand, outside of my usual calling range, but I know I will be probably be ahead if I hit a queen or ten because his raising range is wide, plus I believe that I can get him to fold his marginal hand post-flop (it turns out I am giving him too much credit).

So the flop comes, AK2 all hearts (I have the ten of hearts), and he cbets the pot. For some reason I can tell that he is not strong. I’ve seen him cbet that big before with nothing, so I shove with my combo straight and flush draw figuring I can semi-bluff to get him to fold marginal hands, plus the pot is huge in relation to my stack. But he calls with 2nd pair no heart. This is an incredibly stupid call on his part because he loses to any ace or better and even KQ, plus he is almost always up against a heart, but he doesn’t care and he gets lucky. I had been playing tight so there is no reason for him to believe he is ahead. For the record, I had 43% equity on the shove, so it was reasonable semi-bluff. You can’t give non-thinking players credit for being able to fold.

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Actually, I am really really getting sick of these bad beats. These are back to back hands to eliminate me from the final 4 of a 250k mtt. I flop a flush vs 2 pair and then gets the boat on the turn. Then he calls my raise with a terrible hand (suited connectors are terrible when the blinds are this big) and then he calls a shove with a naked flush draw and gets there on the turn again. I usually point out to people that they aren’t being aggressive enough and that’s why other player’s hit their hands on the turn and river, but here the aggro-fish I was up against made a pot sized bet on the flop, so I knew he was going to give himself the wrong price on both hands and he still got lucky twice.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192743854
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192743938

Just need to shake it off and remember the site isn’t rigged, it’s just that when you play well you typically lose to bad beats and the fish players everywhere increase the variance even further…

Joe i already told you this when we were sitting at a table together:
The more bad beats you receive, the better you’re playing. If you’re never getting sucked out on then you’re obviously the fish at the table. Bad beats are poker’s way of telling you that you’re playing correctly. In a way you should be happy with bad beats, because if you get your money in with good equity, you’re playing the game right.

I get mad as well though @JoeDirk
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192779071

Fish calls with JTs which is justified as he got like 3.4/1
He has up and down on flop, but that still doesn’t mean his call is a good one, it’s still garbage equity as my range is so far ahead of his (i know he doesnt know/care about this)
Turn gives some of his range more equity, but i still think im ahead a good chunk of the time.
River 8 completes the straight and i know i’m beat when he shoves but i still dont think i can actually fold as i gave myself a great price to shove on river.
It’s so ■■■■■■■ lame when you pinpoint a range on someone, be correct, abuse that fact in betting, and still get ■■■■■■■ outdrawn.

Yep, I am realizing that when I lose it is only to bad beats. I just went out of another 250k MTT with 9 players left to a player I had previously respected. I raised 2.7x with AQs, and he called out of position with A3 offsuit (a terrible decision). The flop came with top pair of Qs and 3 hearts. I shoved (2x pot) giving a terrible price to call with the flush draw and he called with the naked ace of hearts and got there on the river.

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/192784354

I play 250k tournaments in hopes of avoiding nonsense plays, but what counts is that my play was still profitable in the long run. Hopefully this helps lower stakes players remember that the site isn’t rigged and that even people with big stacks have this happen all the time.

You played the hand well with the 10x raise and the pot sized bet on the flop. He made mistakes calling the flop and the turn, so that’s all you can do.

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