Supercontroversial hand in 5-million chips buy-in tournament!

So here we are late at night on a Sunday, going into the third hour of the Widow’s Bite tournament, which is a 5 million chip buy-in that is only played at weekends, and which attracts some of the best talent on RP.

We are down to the last three players, and a microstack in third place shoves immediately after losing a huge pot to the second-placed player. I have him outchipped 10:1, so I call with a moderate hand of 6 7 offsuit, hoping to knock him out, thus ensuring an additional 10 million chips of prize money, and if I lose, he remains bottom stack and ripe for the picking.

So here is the hand, in which I won and knocked him out. Hoorah!

https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/768891114

However, following this, there is an eruption in the comments box as the defeated warrior and the peanut gallery take issue with my play.

To save time, I am just going to summarize the commentary box over the next few hands:

Me: gg
Third place finisher: 67???
Me: You had a microstack, so I had to call.
Third place finisher: To play all night, and then lose like that!
Peanut Gallery: They do that all the time.
Peanut Gallery: The odds were 3:1 against BK on that hand.
Me: The disparity in stack size of 10:1 still made it worth a call with almost any two cards.
Third place finisher: You need to read a book!
Me: I need to write a book.

In the end, having got into a winning position where I was 10:1 over the heads-up opponent, I eventually lost and finished second with a payday of about 30 million chips profit. As the tournament which started at 9:30 pm went into its third hour, my companion had become increasingly concerned for my need for a good night’s sleep under her supervision and I really didn’t want to grind it out any more and took chances, and lost to a good player who deserved to win.

Guys, it is as well to remember that this is just a game for play money. You will hardly ever win these tournaments without a measure of good fortune. If you can just put yourself in a position where you can get into the final shootout, you have done well. In a real money game, I would have been very happy to split the prize money equally between the last 3 players, even though I had a huge chip lead. However, RP does not allow this.

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“I need to write a book.”

Game.
Set.
Match.

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Given the stack sizes calling with almost any two cards is standard in that spot.

You’re around 35% to win against a typical ~5bb open shoving range. The call is -EV but the benefits of eliminating a player this late in a tourney make up the difference of losing ~2bb on average when you are a dominating chip leader.

ttier1 is pretty talented, especially late in tournaments. I’ve seen him make some incredible comebacks. He might have just been frustrated with the situation.

I would disregard the railbird chirping. To inexperienced players smart moves might appear as bingo play.

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This is absolutely typical. I can’t win when I’m 2:1 favorite even 1 time in 3. Anytime I throw all in I expect to lose. Against KJ throwing all in on me yesterday, I called with AQ, and my heart sank immediately upon seeing their cards. Any pair or two pair for me sets them up for a straight, but I only got Queens while he flopped a King. It’s always like that. It’s so seldom not like that that when I win with a dominant hand I’m honestly surprised. It’s a fine call with the stack sizes as they are, but I’ve only ever doubled up the small stacked player. I’m a mandatory refill station for cripple stacks.

I agree, and even so, would you not be rather happy if you raise with AT and someone calls with 67o? Surely that is exactly what you want.

Anyway, if you have a tiny stack at the end of a tournament, you will need to win a series of all-in hands, and we all know what the chances of that are. Even if you are 65% on each hand, the odds of winning three in a row are only 27%.

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If clickbaiting was a crime, you’ll be a criminal.
This is a standard hand.

By the way, in real tournaments, it is an advantageous strategy to fold on the shortstack to keep it in and put more pressure on the second in chips. But I realise that’s too advanced to explain here.

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Yes, there is no doubt that there are some players favored by RP and others who are disfavored. I am lucky in that I get more than my fair share of the lucky breaks, but it is not fair for people like you who get a less than fair share in spite of your undoubted skills.

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No, it is a good point, and in fact I had been doing that for a while with the result that the 2nd and 3rd stacks eventually got into a huge contested pot, which was what left the 3rd stack vulnerable to being picked off.

I don’t understand the 10-1 rule. This is a standard call, but because of the pot odds and 67 is really only dominated by pairs 66 or better. So all the Ax low pairs and broadway hands are a little less than 60% against you so easy call. I don’t understand the 10-1 rule part. El Jog makes a good point. In one tournament patrick antonious was the big stack on the bubble who was raising every hand and a short stack went all in. He said I want you to win. So hand for hand play could continue and he could continue to bully. This should be you. Im not saying be tight against a short stack all in, but there is no reason to call 100%. To take this to the logical extreme, imagine you have 1000BB and a nit player with 100BB goes all in. Are you calling with 72o? Of course not, because the 10-1 rule is not why you should call off shoves. ttier1 is a good player. When a good player is short he cant really use as much of his skill but if he gets a real stack, his skill edge gets bigger. You are basically giving a good player a second chance to beat you if you call 100% of hands when the pot odds say to fold.

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I’m surprised at ttier1’s reaction comments. I would’ve thought he would have hoped one of you would call his all-in given his situation instead of just picking up the BB.

But, I’m not saying you made a good call given your situation and the size of the other two bank rolls.

Glad it worked out for you because you must realize you got lucky.

I really disagree with this…

But, to the point of this thread…they gonna whine when you win with a relatively weak hand…let them…it is what losers do…

If you disagree, I feel sorry for you.

Next time you will be right, maybe.

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I concur with county, as players are eliminated you get more money…eliminating players is the point



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really sounds like an ICM question to me.

first ill explain the pics i added then i’ll do the math:
1: the odds vs V’s range according to the push-fold charts
2: the odds vs V’s range according to what i assume his range might actually be closer to. the charts seem a bit aggressive to me (might be wrong about that, but considering how V responded i assume his range was tighter then that as well, so i put a bit more likely range as well)
3: the actual ranges of teh push fold chart
4: the ICM before the hand
5: the ICM after the hand if hero lost
6: the ICM after the hand if hero won
7: the ICM if hero folded to the shove

as for the math: i’ll do one for the push-fold ranges and one for the expected ranges, i assume they will be very close anyway because the odds are pretty close.

first the starting icm:
before the hand hero’s icm is at 48963899,58

assuming hero folds:
his ICM would be 48570325,69

now the harder ones,

first i’ll do the one with the push fold chart ranges:
accoring to those theres 36,9% chance for a win, 59,3% for a loss and 3,8% for a tie. so ill make it 38,8% win and 61,2% loss
the icm for a loss would be 47397166,8 i’ll keep 61,2% from that and get to 29007066.0816
the icm for a win would be 51284220 i’ll keep 38,8% from that and get to 19898277.36
if i count those 2 numbers together it will get to 48905343.4416

now i’ll do the one with the tight ranges:
accoring to those theres 35% chance for a win, 64% for a loss and 1% for a tie. so ill make it 35,5% win and 64,5% loss
the icm for a loss would be 47397166,8 i’ll keep 64,5% from that and get to 30571172.586
the icm for a win would be 51284220 i’ll keep 35,5% from that and get to 18205898.1
if i count those 2 numbers together it will get to 48777070.686

conclusion: the options are actually very close to each other, so close actually that literally every move would be -$EV. however the right option here would still be to call:
folding would be -$ 393573.89 EV
calling with V’s loose range would be -$ 58556.1384 EV
calling with V’s tight range would be -$ 186828.894 EV

so calling is the right choice here even though the options are really close

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Nice, really nice :+1:t2: great post my friend.

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Most of my shoves come after folding a bunch of losers and finally getting a hand with a half * chance to double me up. That’s when I get called by 72o, and lose to a flush, or 32o, and lose to 2 pr. QQ shoves, I call with AA, 33 insists I put up my stack. Guess who gets the set.
These are all instances in which people probably would have not called, but for a dominate stack. So, I’m sitting here thinking, half joking, that it’s happened to me so much, that maybe it should be taught as poker theory. That’s when I come across this thread. Pretty weird, eh?

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