# SPG, do the math

Hey SunPowerGuru,

Is there an average/median number of hands a player can go all in on ( without being knocked out ), in a row, in a MTT with ohh say… 400 people ? 6 player tables.

If there is, it’s beyond my limited ability to calculate.

There are just too many variables there. How strong are the hands? How many people call each time? How many of the allin’s outs have been folded? How many of the caller’s outs are in the muck?

I have no idea how to even get started on such a complex quesion, sorry.

If everybody went allin every hand, we would expect 5/6th of them to be gone after the first hand (except those tables where there is a chopped pot)

With no chops, 333 people would be out the first hand, leaving 67 players after hand 1.

The tables would no longer be balanced, so less than 5/6 will go out on the second hand.If we guestimate, we can say about 15 players would survive to see hand 3.

On hand 3, all but 3 of these players would be eliminated, and the tournament would be over on hand 4.

ok… time-out…

I will certainly apologize if need-b, but I was really in an awnry mood sat night…( was not in the B&B 500 B&R ) … I popped into a blue daily freeroll, 3 min late… mainly because I saw the entries # and it was soon approaching 400… I never see them like that… 1st hand was like AQ, AJ or KQ… got raised in BB, so I shoved and won …… kewl… there were 2 squatters (away)…

Same 'ole blah blah bingo… ohh well… next hand pocket Aces. We all know where this hand went, yes I shoved , got called, and won… So now (2)hands (2)All-ins and I got 3.5x my starting stack…By now table chatter pick’n up, I’m not exactly sober… so 3rd hand I shove in last posistion with complete crap… Everyone folds…(2) ppl stall , while explaining thier displeasure with my play…

I’m a little cheesed off, so I continue going all in, every handpreflop. At this point we all know that it should take no longer than about 5-10 minutes before someone gets rich and kills the donk (me). I stayed on this table, 1-2 got cycled thru 1 at a time, and this went on. It wasn’t untill I got rebalanced, almost at the end of level 4, that I finally died… Yeah, SunPowerGuru… Not even sure how many hands, but it was alot… all in preflop, every hand since I sat down… for almost 1/2 hr.

I never did it before and prolly never again, just thought I’d see how long I shudda lasted.

You mentioned you were drunk, do you happen to remember if you were using witchcraft?

That sounds like an amazing run of luck… but I have no idea how to quantify it.

I simply can’t believe one of your statements, however…

[quote=“Sassy_Sarah, post:5, topic:5271”]
…explaining their displeasure with my play
[/quote]’’

Come on, do you really expect us to believe someone could be displeased with our Sassy Sarah?

Back in 2005 I used to play on Poker Academy (Scratch already mentioned the good times we had tough almost noone could tell a flush from 2 pair) and the devs made a player called “doc_h” who simply went all in every hand. Every month they created a “PA shirt freeroll” where you could win a coveted t-shirt with the Poker Academy logo (I’m still wearing it when mowing the lawn). Guess who won one as well

Actually I wanted to hi-jack this thread for another issue: Tournament points

Tournament points are calculated with the formula below:

IMHO the square root parts on runners & finishing Pos make those number very small, the log part even smaller.

I’m only a very small light on math heaven, but this formula gives around 7k points when you’re in best 50% and 12k when in the money no matter which tourney, buy-in, number of players you play.

I’m pretty sure this a feature, not a bug, but I’m still wondering what you guys think about this.

Cheers

edfrazier?

I hope he’s well and wearing it when mowing the lawn as I do

Galak - Maybe I should open another thread on the tournament points formula? When I joined RP and saw this formula, I thought it to be a bit peculiar in that it massively over-weights the #runners compared to the other variables. There are a few places on the site where this formula can be exploited in terms of leaderboards.

I would love to hear how and why it was set up this way by Replay Poker as well.

As a fun aside, what is the probability of 3 separate math questions being asked on this site within 24 hours of each other?

As of about three months ago he was well, celebrated is 84th birthday and still does the lawn. I didn’t think to ask what he wore when mowing.

Galak,
thats rude “highjacking”… go start another thread…

Yes SunPowerGuru they were displeased, but not that last table… it took them about average time to bust me, around 6-7 hands… but lets see 6*3+3 so 21-22 minutes straight, all in every hand… it reminded me of a social experiment I did live @ bars.( After playing at this bar for a few months, I decided to see if most ppl will fold to a all-in, on the 1st hand. It took 9 weeks before someone called me, and 1 more week for someone to bust me.) I am guessing that it was 110-120ish hands in a row, all-in preflop… so I was curious if you could come up with a number… Thanks for try’n.

Sorry Sarah,
I started a new thread, though the “highjacking” part was only 50% of my post.
BTW, playing drunk can go either way: juggernauting your opponents or losing your entire bankroll (been there, done both)

Cheers

umm , I don’t have to go look, but pretty sure I said I was “un-sober”… and no, I can say that my “ability was NOT impared”, I was feel’n pretty Sassy tho.

yeah I had to go look, hahaha… lets just say 1 clock here is stuck shortly after 4 …

te recomiendo calcular cuantas fichas deberias tener para jugar con suficiente fuerza en la mesa final
ejemplo–.si son 200 jugadores y empiezan con 1500chips serian 300.000fichas en total en juego calcula que te hacen falta para la mesa final como 30ko 40k como minimo

This hand happened in a freeroll tourney. I got a phone call as the cards were dealt so I shoved…
https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/271975916

That is why we all love and hate this game. The odds gotta be off the chart of that happening but I have no idea how to go about figuring them out.
P.S. . It’s not rigged and replay do not cheat. It’s poker folks

This is the poker odds checker I use, but there are several out there.

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=kh+qd 5c+5s

I know you probably meant ‘what are the odds of quads falling?’ and it is the same as being dealt a pat 4 of a kind in 5 card draw, which is 4,164 to 1, unless you take into account you have two fives and there are a King and queen missing, but I doubt its much different in this exact situation.