Honestly, this is typical. If people are going to go all in on low pocket pairs preflop, why wouldn’t you call with A8 or higher? It all depends on your knowledge of the player. If I’m the short stack, at these new tables, I am probably playing for points (the bigger picture), and would not risk it all unless I had something good. I know many short stacked players subscribe to the idea that you should push with anything if you are really short stacked (and many players will bet into the short stack with nothing, just hoping they will fold to pressure and a bigger stack). I am usually playing for points, so every position counts. I’ve come back from 17 chips in 10th to win a MTT, so I’m not scared to be the smallest stack at a final table. I raised preflop with AA and was called by 54 off tonight (and lost when he got a straight). It happens to all of us, lol. Next time I got AA, I limped and got a nice sized pot, betting every street. Why bet it all on a decent starting hand when you have a better idea where you stand after the flop? Though I understand the theory behind this kind of play, I find being unpredictable and exploitative is more effective than playing “by the book”. Instead of raising preflop with that pocket pair, make a minimum bet on the flop and often people think you hit something bigger than what you started with 
To be clear, I don’t think there’s any mystical voodoo going on, or that it’s not typical.
I think someone with a very good understanding of probability would be able to explain it in a way that makes perfect sense.
Like the “birthday problem” (where it takes a surprisingly low number of random people to find two who have the same birthday) it’s a surprising thing that seems strange until you understand it.
I also think that there are cognitive bias explanations (we remember the times the small stack won by some freak turn or by having a huge hand with their back to the wall, while we forget all the times they go quietly).
And again, I can’t @#%@#@ing win a game that was GIVEN to me.
V never sits in until he’s been bled down to under half his stack, then he starts playing.
I don’t ever enjoy winning this way, but I’ll absolutely take it every time given the number of times I’ve been screwed in hands.
I wear him down, and stacks are 5124:876. He shoves, I call, with K6s. He has A7, I can’t find a pair, he can’t either. Now he’s at 1400.
From there I go on to lose the whole game. AT under AJ to put him on top, and then I shove on a pair of 2s into top pair 9s, because why would you ever fold a pair of 9s in a shove situation to a player who’s obviously on tilt and can’t beat an empty chair.
And a free 190k goes up in smoke.
Can’t win against any two cards no matter what they are.
I think what it comes down to is this:
Up until the point at which the small stack is pressured to desperation shove, they are being beat by a particular strategy, which probably has not involved preflop-all-in other than as an abstract or low percentage possibility. You might have edged them in a bunch of small pots, or gotten them one time in a big hand, or whatever, but you’re playing a game that includes post-flop decisions, where if pots get big, it’s probably due to Turn and River betting.
When it comes time for them to shove, this changes the strategy that you’re playing, and makes it a different game. If they had tried preflop shoving with the stacks deep and even, you’d probably assume they have AA or KK, and unless you had a top hand yourself, you’d almost certainly fold. They could have such a hand now, but because you have a 5:1 stack advantage over them, or better, it’s less of a disaster to call them and lose, and if you win, the game is over. Plus, you know that if the blinds are creepiing up, they can’t necessarily afford to wait for a top premium monster pair to shove, and could just be trying to steal a pot so they can get a little bit off the floor, which may give you a reason to call wider.
They have to pick the best hand they think they’re likely to see before they lose so many chips that they will be forced all-in to play any pot at all. So it’s going to be one of their better hands, not random junk. You can call slightly wider than you might ordinarily, because of that pressure. If they are the one who instigates the shove, probably call a little tighter than if you raised them and they responded by jamming. That re-raise should be more easy to call than a re-raise normally is, because you know there’s no more coming after that, which limits your losses, plus it could end the game.
But ultimately, hands where all the decisions are made preflop are going to be subject to a lot more variance.
Before any hands are dealt, even the hole cards, you’re about 49% to win or lose, and 2% to chop. Once you know what your hole cards are, you have a little bit of information to know how your hand is likely to do against any two cards. But what you really want to know is how they do against the range of cards your opponent is likely to shove.
The types of hands you’re likely to face are:
- Pairs
- Two high cards, eg AT+, KJ+
- Ax combos, especially suited
But you might just see something like JTo or QJs sometimes, or even 98s through 76s, which is a lot easier to beat. Then again, all they have to do is hit a pair while you miss, and they double up.
Any time you don’t have a pair to start, you’re missing the board a good half the time. And if you’re calling a bit wide, with a suited King or QJ, you’re dominated by the hands with A-high.
So you’re maybe winning this about 50% of the time, and that’s great… if you win. If you have a 5x stack advantage you can flip for it 2-3 times and just have to win one of them. This favors you.
But if you don’t win, you’ve undone perhaps the past 20 minutes worth of work, and now you have to go back to wearing them down again. Only now the blinds are at 100/200, not 10/30, and this will lead to bigger pots whether you want them or not, but it’s also going to force your opponent to defend wider, which means calling more often, which means your hand has to have showdown value, no just bluff value or fold equity or whatever.
How you handle the small stack going all-in preflop should depend on what you’re holding, and who initiated the shove, and how much they’re shoving.
The greater the ratio of your stack to your opponent’s stack, the less consequential it is if they win, and the wider you can call. Stack-to-blind ratio is also important; if their shove isn’t much more than 3-4 BB or less, it’s just a non-scary opening bet, and thinking about it that way may make calling easier.
It also matters what stage of the game you’re in.
In an endgame scenario with shallow effective stack sizes, the preflop strategy becomes more important, and it’s likely you’re going to start facing more 3-bets and jams as your opponent’s stack dwindles. You can keep this in mind when you decide whether to raise or not. Sometimes raising will trigger a jam in response, as a way to get you to back down. If so you’ll only want to raise if you’re prepared to call the jam. Other players will see limps as weakness; if so, limping will trigger them to shove, so you’ll want to adjust by including some premium hands in your limping range so you can take advantage.
Late in a tournament when blinds are huge, limping becomes a lot more common, and even 2-3BB raises are a often big deal. Whether to use this information to bluff more, or tighten up more, will depend on your opponent, but generally you want to put pressure on the small stack and get them to make mistakes.
I won this MTT yesterday, and observed the small stack invincibility problem in three separate hands, of which I was readily able to find two of them…
(I also benefited from it myself, as at one point I had been 13th/15 of 28 on the leaderboard, when I shoved KTo into AJ, and managed to hit a pair while AJ blanked, and doubled up.)
3 remaining in the tournament at the final table, I put a player with a little over 4BB all-in preflop holding AJo, they have T9o. What, am I not supposed to raise with AJo? Of course not. Results don’t make the decision wrong.
Board runs out Q8Q8, and then a 9 on the river. Thanks, river!
How else could I have played it?
If I’d feared the jam, I could have just limped and played AJ passively. Maybe they jam to a limp, maybe not, but if they do I feel reasonably comfortable calling them holding AJo and a 105,000 chip advantage.
On the flop, they’re looking at an inside straight draw, so probably not likely to fold here to anything, so, I don’t really see any any way to avoid busting here. I could min-bet the flop, they could jam, it’s not much more to call, so might as well call. Or I could check the flop, fold when they go all-in, and leave them the smaller pot. That’s about it.
What could have been the final hand, I play ATo vs A8s, dominating them except for the flush outs that A8s has. Well, they flop the nut flush to double up. I’m not saying a small stack shouldn’t shove here, and ATo isn’t a terrible hand to call with. I’m 62% to win this hand preflop, plus 10% to chop with it.
Small stack invincibility seemingly guarantees that I’ll hit that 28% chance 80% of the time. But that’s just the cognitive bias kicking in.
And again.
3-max, I have my opponent down to his last 600 chips twice, and can’t put him away.
First he doubled up with T9 hitting two pair on the flop; I call with 88 and an OESD that doesn’t fill.
Right back to square one, resume wearing him back down.
V shoves A3 with 1100 chips left, I call with QTo, flop an inside straight draw, V backdoors a flush, not that he needed it.
I get AK the next hand, shove it, he calls with K9o. I have that hand dominated dead to rights, and of course the second card on the flop is a 9, I miss, I’m out 2nd, no chips out.
If Replay posted a hand query API, I’d go through my entire history to see what what my W/L record is for all-ins, and how many chips I’ve won/lost with those pots. I guarantee it’s about 20% wins and 80% losses, and about 30 million chips lost more than I’ve won.
I guess maybe switch to limit HE?
That would be exciting reading there!
Luckily, it’s already been published! The Library of Babel (libraryofbabel.info) contains everything anyone could ever say or write… literally!
The first hand my opponent actually won on showdown. All in, as the small stack, 950 chips, and me holding a pocket pair. Dealer gives them two pair KKJJ.
Down to his last BB, and the dealer gives him KK: Hand #618699890 · Replay Poker
I flop two pair, he backdoors a flush: Hand #618700623 · Replay Poker
Top pair crushed by flopped set. Hand #618702681 · Replay Poker
Then I go card dead, then I lose. Win three games, get paid 0.
240 chips left, I put him all in, dealer sets him up with Gift Suited Ace and no cares.
Had this Mucker-folder all the way down to 800 chips 3-4 times, hit every GooD hand for monsters and had him down to 1000-1300 in the first 5 minutes, then can’t win two hands in 20 for the next 70 hands. Finally call him shoving 55 with K8s, and miss the board, walk away from the table still with 300 chips on it, because I can win 6 games in a row against some people and still not collect a payout. Just give him the Freaking chips. I get him down to 900 chips, he shoves every single hand, I get rags the whole time, then get AA and that’s the one hand he decides to limp and fold to a min-bet. Sure.
AJs induces and then calls a shove from 44. Hits top pair Aces, then the board hits me for two pair, then the board runs out a community straight for both of us to chop.
Still working on how to KO a short stack. I don’t know if I’ve made progress or not, but here’s a game I just finished, winning.
This was a 3-Max SNG, and I KO’d both opponents. I had the benefit of getting pretty good cards from start to finish, and there were no extended stretches when I had nothing playable, which makes it a lot easier. I also hit the board a reasonable amount of the time.
(I’ve noticed that in a lot of these situations where I struggle to get the final KO and win the game, it’s because I’m either card dead and have to fold 5-6 hands in a row, and then happen lose again even more when I do play a hand, or I’ll have great hole cards that miss the board again and again, and may be able to win hands with my holdings through aggressive bluffs, but when it comes time to put a player all-in, I have to have a hand that can win a showdown.)
In this game, I had a few hands where I had to fold because V1 raised and I didn’t feel confident enough in my hand to call. After a few hands like this, though, I realized that he was probably over confident, overbluffing, or over-aggressive.
Hand #622817764: I have Q8s, I put in a 2BB raise preflop, V calls. Flopped QT9-rainbow for top pair, Queens, and an inside draw to a 8-Q straight, backdoor flush draw. I put in a half-pot bet, 125; v raises me to 625. I consider my options.
If I fold here, I still have 745 chips left, but giving this pot to him would mean a 2:1 stack advantage, and with the way he’s playing aggressively, I’m going to have a hard time finding a better hand to beat him with.
What hands could he have here? KJ, flopping the nuts, would be his strongest possible hand. But given the way he’s been aggressive with everything so far, I don’t think it’s likely. He could just have me beat with a better Queen; Q9, QT would be Two pair, QJ would be an OESD + better kicker, and KQ would be an inside draw + better kicker. My inside and backdoor draws here are both unlikely to fill, but they do give me outs.
I felt like with the hand history at this table, my read on V’s betting behavior tells me I should probably just make my stand here, and accept it if he’s hit something strong and I end up losing and getting KO’d.
If I just call here, I’m probably all-in on the Turn, and he’s sure to bet again to put me all-in if I do call. So I shove back against his raise, hoping he’ll fold and I’ll take a nice pot. He does call, though, flips up ATo for middle pair, and the board runs out 6K, and I take the hand, doubling up to 1990, leaving V1 with 325 chips and V2 has 685.
V1 comes back, winning the next 3 hands, chopping the 4th with me, then takes 3 of the next 4 hands, and 4 of the next 6. I notice though that after losing that big hand to me, he respects my bets, and does’t try to raise me off a hand anymore, and mostly folds if I bet.
Hand #622819102: I get AQ two hands in a row, and on the second hand, V2 has drained all the way down to his last 110 chips, and shoves QQ for 110 chips. The board runs out 84438; I win the side pot from V1 with an Ace kicker over board two pair 8844, while V2 triples up to 330 with his QQ88.
Hand # 622819527: A few hands later, I raise QJo and V1 shoves on me with AKs; it’s about a 3x raise over my 2BB raise, and I have V covered, so I decide to call. Lucky me, the board runs out J-high, giving me Top Pair, and I beat Big Slick to KO V1.
I have the game nearly won now, with 2670 chips in my stack; V2 just has 330 chips. This should be an easy mop-up operation, I just need to get a hand with showdown value and put him all-in.
J3o in the next hand, I flop ATQ for an inside broadway draw. V2 min-bets the flop; I don’t want to double him up chasing a draw, so I lay the hand down and look for a better situation.
V2 wins the next hand as well. I have A3o, flop is Q6J, V2 min-bets the Turn for 100, I give him credit and don’t want to pay him to draw hoping for one of 3 Aces in the deck for my only real outs for this hand, and let him have the pot.
Two hands, 400 chips, and he’s doubled up without having to show down anything. Now: Either I’m failing to be aggressive and could have taken at least one of these pots had I bet them, OR I’m playing smart, waiting for actual showdown value since he’s so close to all-in, and I don’t want to bluff him and double him up, which makes these minimum losses just fine.
Stacks are 2470:530; and I win the next 3 hands:
- Hand #622819919: 95s, no action, river pairs my 5 for 4th pair, min bet takes the hand as V2 folds.
- Hand #622820102: TT, min-raise pre to 200, V2 folds. I guess it doesn’t matter since V2 folded here, but I think it’s probably better to just shove it here with pocket TTens.
- The next hand, V folds the SB to me preflop, and I take the hand uncontested with 83s.
T2o, I fold the SB to V, leaving him still at 330 chips.
We go back and forth for the next 8 hands, during which I’m not getting great cards, and keep missing the board. During these hands, I’m trying to walk the fine line between being aggressive enough to put pressure on V2 to fold, and putting too much pressure on him so that if he calls, it’s all-in and I have to show down to win the hand. And if I do hit something, I want him to think I’m weak, and try to bluff me off of it. So I play these hands a bit passively, but mostly it’s because I really am weak, and don’t have anything.
Hand #622820924: I have J3s, finally catch a pair of 33’s on a low, wrong-suited flop, and V2 shoves; I call, not really happy about it, but the pot odds allow me to call very thin, and so I do. V2 has J2, nothing but a draw, but ends up rivering a flush for a 570 chip pot.
Hand #622821012: Next hand, I get AQo, and raise 2BB; v calls, flop is 378; I bet pot at it, bluffing, hoping he hasn’t hit anything here, and that my overcards give me at least some showdown value if he does find the call button; V2 lays down.
Hand #622821171: I have A7o, and put in a 2BB raise, which is enough to put V2 all-in to call; he calls with Q5, and flops K3Q to pair his Queen. Board runs out runner, runner 7-7, for backdoor trip 777s and I win the game. So, in the end, I just get lucky on the final hand. True, I’m a favorite preflop, so I played a better range, but the board had to help me out a lot to get me there, and I had no control over it since we’re both all-in preflop. Of course, if I just limp A7 and he checks, then flops middle pair and shoves it, I’m probably not calling with just High Card, Ace, and lose the hand because I can walk away from it.
In considering the final hand, it’s tough for me to separate the outcome from the decision making. Considering how else I could have played it, I think raising A7 to put V2 all-in to call, with such a stack advantage that losing doesn’t really hurt me is the best play to make, and if I only limp it in an over-abundance of caution, I probably talk myself out of calling the flop shove and end up missing out on the improbable suck-out trips. But folding the flop probably would have been the correct decision – my hand calculator put me at <18% to win the hand on the flop – and the only reason I doubt that at all is that it’s “only <1BB” to call, and I can afford to throw it away and double up V2, and still have plenty of chances to beat him in subsequent hands if I don’t hit the Ace or trip 777s. Being all-in preflop, it removes any chance to out-think myself.