Rather than posting hands themselves, I’m going to start compiling statistics about the hands in a spreadsheet, and once I have a lot of hands, I am going to update this thread with some statistical analysis, and we can see whether the outcomes I’m seeing are at all in line with reality, or if they’re running out so bad that you just have to conclude that curses are real.
To that end, I am asking for advice in this post for how to design the spreadsheet in order to capture the necessary relevant information.
Here’s an example of the data I’m thinking of collecting:
|Tournament ID||Hand ID||Link||P1||P2||P3||F1||F2||F3||Turn||River||Shove street||Initiate or Call||Covered||Reason||Hand strength at decision||Equity at decision||Hand strength at showdown||Result||Pot||Type|
|656048130||[link]||AdQs||7d7s||7h||3c||Ac||4h||5s||Flop||Initiate||No||Short stack on bubble needs to play aggressively; Strong top pair; Likely ahead vs most hands; Fold equity||Top pair AAQ||1.64%||Top pair||lose||-7371||Cooler|
Explanation of fields:
Tournament ID: The Replay tournament ID of the hand in question.
Hand ID: The Replay hand ID of the hand in question.
Link: Hyperlink to the hand replay page.
P1, P2, P3: The hole cards held by the players involved in the hand. (There are rarely 4-way shoves, so I think 3 columns is adequate; I can always add another if need be.)
F1|F2|F3|Turn|River: The cards from the flop, turn, and river.
Shove street: Did the shove take place preflop, on the flop, turn, or river?
Initiate or Call: Did I shove or call a shove?
Covered: Did I have enough chips to cover my opponent’s stack?
Reason: Reason(s) I made the decision. Basically a notes field explaining the choice.
Hand strength at decision: self-explanatory
Equity at decision: % to win the pot, if known, based on hand calculator
Hand strength at showdown: self-explanatory; compare to strength at decision to see if I improved or not
Result: Win or lose
Pot: Chips won or lost
Type: The general character of the hand, eg, cooler, rivered, good fold, etc.
This is a lot of information to collect per hand and so will be time consuming to do it for every hand that I am involved with where someone at the table shoves, but I can commit to doing it over a few weeks until I have a nice set of data.
Should I collect more than this? I think this is probably reasonably thorough, but is there other information that would be useful? Obviously the complete hand can be reviewed by going to the link and extracting any additional information desired. I don’t think it’s practical for me to collect the complete hand data including every decision made at every street by every player, but if that were possible to collect in an automated fashion I think there might potentially be value found in that analysis.
I will use this information to count percentage of hands won/lost, profit/loss, how often I shove vs. how often I’m shoved on, How often I get in good vs bad, How often opponents suck out and cooler me, are there any interesting tendencies, such as I tend to win more pots when they’re small vs large, etc.
Using this information, I should be able to run some analysis on my spreadsheet of hand data, and be able to say things like:
“In Tournament 123456, I had my opponent all-in 5 times; I was 50%+ to win the hand in all five, but I only one 1, the final hand, for a 20% win rate; total chips won over these 5 hands was -7500.”
“In hands where I get all-in ahead, I win 52% of the time; probability expects that I should have won these hands 65% of the time. Therefore, something isn’t right about this, but perhaps it’s just that the sample size is too small, and this is still within the margin of error.”
Finally, I’m not sure how to “sum” or “average” or “aggregate” or whatever my combined odds of winning multiple separate hands. Is there a statistically valid way of doing this?
I probably won’t have enough data to make a findings post on this thread for weeks if not months, but I’d like to get the input of seasoned players who have a decent background in math and who are interested in offering suggestions.