Es kommt mir so vor als ob der Server sehr sehr oft Flushs ausspielt. Bei jeder 3 Hand liegen 3 Farben auf dem Tisch. Ständig. Wer ist der selben Meinung? Es macht schon fast keine Laune mehr, weil alle niederen Hände dafür im Muck landen. Translation It seems to me that the server plays flushes very, very often. In every 3 hand there are 3 suits on the table. Constant. Who agrees? It’s almost no fun anymore, because all low hands end up in the muck for it.
Thank you for Reading and comment.
Tschüsselchen,
Einsteins-Bro
The likelihood of two of a suit being on the table is 100%. 3 of a suit is just one extra card. Someone cleverer than me (or someone who Googles it) can supply us with the likelihood of 3 of a suit appearing on the table, but I can imagine the likelihood is not remote.
According to this site (accuracy?? hey, it’s on the internet - it must be true!), the odds of three of the same suit being on the board by the river are 3.24 to 1.
If that number is correct it’s exactly like Jabr said - not all that unlikely to happen when you consider you are guaranteed at least two of the same suit on every board - hitting one more doesn’t seem like that much of a stretch, does it?
It’s all about that perception that people tend to have about things they think should be rare, but they’re just not. I’ll bet if you actually track how often you see it over a few hundred hands, you’ll see those odds closely mirrored on Replay.
Now - the board hitting the right three when you are holding a suited pair - those odds are quite a bit longer.
EDIT: And I just noticed that the original post here from Einsteins Bro said he sees it in one out of three hands. Well, there you have it.
Your first card can be anything. So you have 52 choices out of 52 cards (because no matter what card you draw you can get a full hand of the same suite). Your second card, has to be the same suit as your first card, so probability of that is 1251 because there are 13 of each suite and you have to subtract 1 for the one card you have drawn. Your third card has to be the same suite as the first and the second, notice there are only 11 cards left of that suite, so selecting that specific card will be 11/50
Giving a total probability of:
(52/52)×(12/51)×(11/50) = 0.05 => 1 in 20
Completing the Flush
With 4 suited cards (various combos) => you have 9 outs to make your hand on the turn or river (There are 13 cards per suit and you have 4 of them). So you have 9 outs out of 47 total unknown cards (52 cards in the deck – your 2 cards and – 3 more on the flop) => 9/47 => 1 in 5 chance to hit your flush after the turn or the river. The odds can get better late in the game as fewer cards remain in the pack (and could reach 1 in 3) BUT some of your suited cards may have been buried.
With 3 suited cards after the flop, you have 10 outs to make your hand after the turn and river but you need to score twice (both times) => chance of 1 in 25.
UPDATE
Just to clarify the completing the flush probabilities
Your chance of hitting the flush on the turn is 9/47 = 19.15% (about 1 in 5).
If you don’t hit on the turn, your change of hitting the river is 9/46 = 19.57%.
Your overall chances of completing the flush after the turn and the river are
19.15% + (19.57% * (1-0.1915)) => that is 1 in 3 => 35%.