Its no fun for anyone. If you just make it a matter of math, facing a 2/3rd pot bet on the flop, you need to defend with 60% of your range to be unexploitable. IP you will fold a bit less and OOP a bit more than that on the flop. You also need to take into consideration board texture because some flops are so good or so bad for you that MDF is deviated from significantly.
Its a tough game and if you’re in there fighting, you will face tough spots. Sometimes you will lay down the best hand. Study the most common spots that give you trouble and get to the less common ones afterwards.
As to the poker bank review - I don’t think they explain things very clearly and I seriously question many of their assumptions. I think they were trying to say that CO vs SB 3!, this board is pretty bad for SB’s range. Lots of that 3! range will be unpaired over cards on 6/7/2/9 and lots of CO’s continue range on the flop will improve to pair or pair+draw on that turn. (CO’s calling range preflop will be wider than normal due to the small 3! size after a less than 2.5x open) SPR will be higher than it should be as well, making the single pair hand less attractive to stack off with.
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Great thread with a lot of great posts.
I like your 3!, and might have been inclined to make a similar c-bet (just under half pot), thinking I had the range advantage, but not the nut advantage, and that you’ll often bet a pretty good chunk of your range here.
I love the analysis from Warlock, and how the SPR drives us to want a larger c-bet, and further to pick some of our weaker over pairs to bet larger with.
Given the bet you made, and the raise you then face, I think it gets down to the frequencies with which you see people making moves like this. On replay, against average players I see that tend not to raise very frequently, I’d put the range at all sets, QQ, JJ (yes, only one combo left), AT, KTs and maybe T8s, and many suited heart Ax holdings, and possibly a few other flush or straight draws (especially with a T, 8 or 3), though you’d expect to shake a lot of these off with the 3!. I’ve also seen people make this move with a holding like 99 or 77 a few times. It’s hard to say how many combos of each they’d have, as it gets really player dependent. It’s moderately close, but I’d agree you can probably just stack off here. And I’m imagining you are playing in an environment more aggressive than Replay, which makes the decision to get stacks in quite a bit easier.
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