Overbetting the Nuts

Is it EV+ to over-bet the nuts against mega calling stations?

In hindsight, you probably should’ve bet or reraised on the turn instead of checking in order to gauge his interest in continuing. Also, if you had raised 1k, it may have induced him to make the shove. However, it may have scared him off from calling your all in on the river. Either way, you won a very nice pot.


I slowed down on the turn because my thinking was I didn’t want to scare him off (I already had the nuts - only way he beats me is if he rivers even higher quads assuming he flopped a set which he didn’t). I jammed the river to make it look like a bluff.

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And he bought it, so you played the river correctly.


The probability of quads over quads is 1: 11,255,911, so unlikely that your fears would’ve come to fruition. Odds are so small you may never have it happen to you.


Yeah that’s why I slow played the turn because the odds of him drawing out are very very slim. By just calling his bet on the turn, I make it look like I have a draw then jamming the river makes it look like I missed a draw and was trying to buy the pot.


Almost to the point of impossible in your lifetime.


I understand why you did it. It’s tough to know what is the best choice. But, at least no matter your choice, you were going to win.


True, but once one player has quads and there are two pairs on the board, the odds of quads over quads are substantially reduced. However, the higher your pocket pair is, the lesser are the odds that you will be beaten by quads over quads*. Top players will often fold small pairs preflop in many situations, thus reducing their chance of ever getting into that situation. Players on RP will almost always limp, raise, or call with hands like 44, which are at best a coinflip against almost any other hand, though obviously there are situations where it is worth trying to set mine, especially if you are big stacked, or if there are several players in the pot, offering better odds.

*For example with 22 you are much more likely to be beaten by quads over quads than with KK. So if the preflop raise and position of opponent suggested that they could have KK in their range and there was a pair of Kings on the board, the possibility of opponent having quad kings would have to be considered, although obviously the probability of him having AK is much greater. If you lose to quads over quads, you lose. Hopefully you have the bigger stack and are not knocked out.