first of all i like to mention i didn’t had very specific reads on him but i did knew he was a good player (and he was also the winner of the tournament in the end), in fact most of the table was playing well. so i expected he was having a good reason for the shove, either for value or as a bluff.
the thing is: i actually would put him on a big bluff range.
so first of all, i tried to put him on a range of hands. about overpairs, i didn’t put that into his range in the first place because i expect 99+ to 3bet preflop. first of all, im playing in position, meaning i do have an advantage postflop, and i could be playing a wider range of hands so he can do so as well. second reason is that overpairs (especcialy hands like 99) should be 3betting because they usually play poorly postflop, you almost always get overcard(s) on the flop and then you have to play a speculative hand out of poition with a big chunk of your stack already in the pot, the only reason not to might be because you’re scared im playing a bigger pair but that threat still remains on this flop (and like i said, i could play a lot more in this spot). so even though he had it, i don’t think overpairs should have been into his range because of those reasons and expected him to know this as well. maybe AA or KK might have been slowplaying preflop but i didn’t put that into his range either because i assume if they slowplay it pre he would do that on the flop as well, especcialy with a flop like this. besides i also assumed an additional chance to check any overpair to induce a cbet bluff from me and trap me like that. as for the 8, i also didn’t put him on that because you want to extract value from a hand like that. the 3 might have been into his range because it’s most likely the best hand on that moment and almost the entire deck exist out of scare cards. so the 3 would probably shove here, the only think is that there are very few 3x hands still playing, maybe A3 or 34, if hes loose enough maybe K3 but thats it. and he might play a small pair (22,44,55,66 or 77). theres still a chance these hands might shove preflop but i can see them call as well. in other words he has value hands into his range but they are just very few. on the other hand, his bluff range seems huge here. he probably knows that this flop will miss almost anything i could have here except pocket pairs or maybe A8. but besides those hands i might also play any A, a mid or high K, any broadway, maybe even suited connectors or mid/high suited 1 gappers. as for the hands he could have, he can play a very wide range here because hes on the BB meaning it could contain my own range and even much more mediocre hands. meaning his range exists out of an extremely high amount of hands while his value hands are only just very few. the pot size is already 344k meaning with just 444k behind you either have to bet very small without being already committed or just shove right away which kinda is also a slight advantage to a bluff because bluffs certainly don’t want to bet small just to get called, they want to win the pot right now, while value hands don’t want to scare you away on a flop you would rarely hit. you also have a very good point about my herocall with crap kicker as it was certainly a big part of my hestitation, but since i put him on a valuerange with almost no cards above the 5 i considered it an overcard as well in it’s own way. as for making a bluff in the first place, he only needs to win the pot for about 55-60% of the time if i make a calculation quickly, but lets just make it 65% just to round it up because of ICM. but still, my range exists of hands far above that because i simply have almost no value hands in that spot. on top of that you actually need far less then this 65% because that’s only when considering a bluff where you have zero equity, and even almost all bluffs have some equity. in other words you should shove here very widely. as for his bluff range. i think it can hold almost any hand that calls the BB simply because i miss way too much on this flop. so a rough sample of his range might be A2o-AJo, K6+, Q8o+, J9o+, 45o+, and almost any suited cards. of course i’m just mentioning a very rough example here about his range but these might all be hands that could have called from the BB. clearly some of these hands are less likely then others, but it’s still an extremely wide range, and as i mentioned before you could be shoving very wide simply because i probably won’t call. the only bluff hands i don’t wanna see here are A6-AT (maybe AJ or AQ if it won’t 3bet pre) yet all other ones could be calling from the BB and decide to stab if the flop is right, which is certainly the case. if we flip things and look at my odds, we need to call 444k to win 788k. so i need to be right about 36% (not actual odds, just roughly calculated) to profitably call there. and because of the huge bluff range i mentioned i expected to be good here more often then not. and he can even be bluffing less then 36% cuz of my additional equity of my hand just in case im wrong.
the only downside of all this is that i’m the chipleader and don’t like to risk that position (since i’m not yet in need of desperate decisions) with something speculative like this. but cuz of the reasons i mentioned i felt like i couldn’t fold there anymore because of the big bluff range he could have here.
but anyway, like i said i feel like made the right decision, but also i’m just not sure enough of it. but this was the thought process behind the hand.
thanks for the compliment 
. but have to say you seem like you know your stuff as well 
)
. would certainly be nice, i’ll check it out right away.
