On luck

Luck can seem synonymous with randomness. To call someone lucky is usually to deny the relevance of their hard work or talent.

A guy said in comments that some are luckier than others…I replied that everybody gets the same luck, and I believe that…some of the reasons people appear luckier include:

not making calls without reasonable odds

not playing 23 off suit

Good players can and do get beat…but not as often as bad players…

So, the next time you call someone lucky…consider they might be a better player…I know that is the case if you are playing against me…

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Randomness is getting your only AA of the tourney in the first 5 minutes and winning 3 BBs.

Luck is getting your only AA of the tourney at the final table with one player holding AK and and another holding KK.


“Luck” is a term we use to describe how everyone else plays.

“Skill” is how we describe our own play.

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Make your own dang luck: https://www.replaypoker.com/hand/replay/477934803


Other people making my bad luck. All from the same SnG, and within like 5 minutes…


I’m not crying about it, it’s kinda funny, really.

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I believe luck is less about winning and more about limiting losses. Winning games is not all that difficult if one is willing to pay the price in unequal losses. Luck is a term relating to a single game or session while skill is based on the results of 100K hands played.

AK v. AQ v. AJ, gotta be some slim odds on that one happening. Rough.

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Skill is maximizing EV (expected value). Luck is variance, the deviations from EV resulting from how the cards fall.

Of the 3 hands I posted, i was ahead at the turn in all of them. I was facing 3 outs in 2 of them and 6 outs in the other one. The chance of losing all three is about…

(0.06 X 0.06 X 0.12) X 100 = 0.04%

I consider that to be a bit on the “bad luck” side. Haha.

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Luck is scientific proven, Ways to improve your luck are

  1. Maximize opportunities - If you are staying away from things, afraid to take chances, then the chance of something good is less likely to happen.
    If you lock yourself in your house, how many exciting, serendipitous things are going to happen to you? Not many.
  2. Listen to hunches - Your body is equipped with many built in censors that activate when possibility’s (good or bad) get closer. Lucky people act on their intuitions across many areas of their lives. Intuition isn’t magic. Research has shown it’s often valid. “What intuition seems to be most of the time is when you’ve got expertise in the area, that somehow the body and the brain have detected a pattern that you haven’t consciously seen” Richard Wiseman professor of psychology at the University of Hertfordshire.
  3. Expect good fortune - positive people vs. negative people, shows that optimism can help improve luck, where pessimism can decrease luck, And that optimism gives lucky people more “grit.” When you think things will work out, you persevere. And when you’re resilient, you give possibilities more time to work out in your favor. Turns out that while pessimists do see the world more accurately, optimists are more likely to be lucky because those delusions push them toward opportunities.
  4. Turn bad luck into good - Lucky people see the positive side of their bad luck
    Lucky people are convinced that any ill fortune in their lives will, in the long run, work out for the best.
    Lucky people do not dwell on their ill fortune.
    Lucky people take constructive steps to prevent more bad luck in the future.
    SO :To Sum it Up Maybe we all CAN have the same amount of luck possibilities, but it is how we apply it that WILL make the difference!
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Interesting post juice. Of course, “…optimism can help improve luck” is at odds with the idea of sub-conscience pattern recognition.

The simple fact is that your expectations can alter reality. This is very well known in the field of quantum physics, where experimenters are forced to take great pains to design experiments that minimize this effect. They don’t begin to understand how this happens, but they know it does.

In the lab, the effect is slight but statistically meaningful. I believe this is because the experimenters don’t have a strong emotional attachment to the outcomes. Emotion is the fuel that drives these effects.

If you know you will lose to that river flush card, you will lose more often. If you really really believe you will hit the card you need, you will hit it more often. As long as you have an emotional tie to the outcome, you can influence the action a little.

Now you might think, “The cards are already shuffled and in a specific order, there’s no way to influence it after the fact.” You would be wrong. It is possible for your expectations to go back in time and influence the outcome of the present. Physicists call this “retro-causality.” Mind blowing? Yes, of course, but verified in experiment after experiment.

Anyway, keep a positive attitude and expect a good result and you will get one more often.

PS: Anyone interested in this can look for Wheeler’s delayed choice variation of the two slit experiment, which started this ball rolling. Science has been trying very hard to prove him wrong for more than 40 years. So far, all they have done is confirm his hypothesis.

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I don’t know that the “emotional tie” is the influence, or if your body and sub conscience mind have already picked up on this, but if you know of any study’s please hook a sista up.!

This is some extremely deep and interesting stuff. I can see some heavy reading on an evening with light snow in my future. Of course, both heavy and light are interchangeable here.

I don’t want to hijack the luck thread Juice, but I’ll try to find some of the studies that got me thinking in this direction.

One of the studies was of new mothers, who would begin lactating when their babies were hungry, even though they were miles apart physically. Almost all of these mothers showed this behavior, and this suggests that the emotional connection was imnportant there…

Another was of dogs, who would go sit near the door 15 minutes before their owner came home. Over 70% of all dogs studied showed this behavior. This one was controlled to eliminate “pattern” type influences. For example, they used a random taxi and came home at random times. In all cases, the dog went to the door as soon as the owner intended to come home.

Another was a recent study done in Mexico. They had the “sender” and “receiver” spend some time together meditating with the intention of linking minds. The sender watched a monitor and his brain waves were monitored. The receiver was in a faraday cage some distance away, and the graphs of their brain activity were almost identical. When the sender saw an image, his reaction was reflected to a spooky degree.

I often “feel” cards hitting other players. They react emotionally, I pick up on it. Not always, but way more than you would believe. This has nothing to do with pattern recognition.


What did the studies have to say about my Rabbits Foot, my horseshoe, my lucky socks and 6-7 suited ???


Well, the rabbit’s foot wasn’t so lucky for the rabbit, and losing a horseshoe isn’t lucky at all, so finding one can’t be.

67s is a power hand, play it like aces!

Methinks you are making things up…

Spot on with Dogs knowing the Arrival of a loved one. Can Happen to a Person when Fear or Danger occurs to a Close family Member also. More than prickles on the neck I Guarantee.

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They also studied cats, who displayed the same behavior, but to a lesser extent. I think it was something like 30% of the cats did it. I would guess that all cats know you’re coming home, but fewer care, cats being cats and all. :slight_smile:

They also talked to many veterinarians, who said they no longer make appointments for cats. Seems the cats know and go hide, so they had too many cancelled appointments. Strange stuff, but there it is.

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I often have the same experience. When I listen to my intuition, rather than think too hard, I am right more often than not. The hard part is learning to pick up on those feelings and trust them enough to act on them. I’ve folded some great hands, that would have gotten me in trouble (had I played), but in the end, I was right to fold. On the other hand, sometimes I “know” my hand is the winning one, as long as I stay until the end. I don’t know why, but some days I pick up on these feelings a lot more than others.