Non-Random Conspiracy Theories ==> Consequences

Claims of non-randomness abound, and while they are denied there are troubling patterns to consider. Here a few observations and how to take advantage of them:

  1. When you fold pre-flop, you often get two pairs with these cards in the flop. Happens about one on four flops => fold less often pre-flop but costs your stack more, so fold less when you can afford it

  2. Flush wins occur much more frequently than they should and at far higher rate than straights => keep suited cards and chase flush draws rather than straights.
    Straight 254:1
    Flush 508:1 (i.e. should be only half as likely)
    Despite this if you hold 2 suited cards and there is one of the same suit in the flop there are 10 outs for the turn and the river i.e. 10 out of 40 or so.
    If you hold two connected cards and there is one in the flop, there are 8 outs each end to complete the straight, but you must get both of them => much lower odds.
    So go with the flow and chase flushes not straights!!!

  3. The chances of one card in the flop being duplicated in the turn or river is much higher than expected => increases chances of triples, and lowers chances of straights

  4. More often than expected you will get one of your pre-flop cards paired in the flop

  5. If the flop has all cards <10 there is a high probability that the turn and river cards will be <10 => hoping for an A, K or Q is wishful thinking. The rags have it!!!


Straights => The way I see it for A,K,Q to get J, 10 your have 4 outs of 40 cards in the pack, needed twice; for Q,J, 10 you have 8 outs from 40 or so cards needed twice (double ends).

Flushes => for A,K,Q of hearts, you have 10 outs (hearts) of 40 cards in the pack needed twice
So it is better to chase flushes!!!

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People on free play sites play looser than in casinos or on real money sites. Thus, more hands reach showdown and more bad beats occur.

When people play for real money, they’re less likely to draw to a straight or flush, especially a gutshot or a flush on the river. They’re also more likely to dump a low 4-card flush draw, knowing someone may have already hit a flush and it’s likely to beat them even if they make it. But on a free site, they have a lot less to lose.

There are a lot of players on this site who are still learning the game. They will play a hand to the river because they don’t know the odds. They don’t enjoy folding. They like the big pots. They may even like the adrenaline of going all-in, knowing that when they lose, they can grab another stack of chips. People who play in casinos or real money sites are less likely to play with real money if they don’t know what they’re doing.

Finally, cui bono?

A basic tenet of law, meaning “Who benefits?” Replay doesn’t rig the game because there is no reason for them to. Who benefits from it? Do they get anything from chips going one way or the other? If anything, they’re more hurt by people not trusting the site.


Thanks for that=> all good points, very worthwhile. Cheers

I am not suggesting that Replay deliberately introduces a non-random bias. I agree there is no point in doing this.
However, maybe, just maybe, there is an issue with their randomness algorithm or procedures. Again, there is no concrete evidence for this. Another point is that the randomness is screwed by the players actions. This may be the reason why more games are won with flushes than straights, when the opposite should occur.
I suspect that more people will ride with 2 cards of the same suit even 23, 45, 67 etc. hoping to draw a flush, than an adjacent card pair 89, 56, J 10 hoping to get a straight draw. The final outcome statistics predicted from pure randomness may be biased by this behavior.
Flushes are the classic good hand killers => any cards will do!!! Easier to predict (3 or 4 cards of the same suit out there) but devastating => beats a straight. But straights can be more sneaky and less obvious with infills and two ends.

Replay needs to change it’s shuffle. I have never seen soooooo many flushes on the board. Like 5 suited cards !!! Duh…And soooo many st8s on board…again they get filled in so many times, it’s just crazy.
i get suited so much, and hitting a flush is like winning a lottery every day, just does not happen…it’s crazy, but I play here because their are not as many idiots…lol
And how do we get players ranked 300 k…never more than a couple thousand that are on at one time…duh

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I played here about 5 yrs ago, an had to leave because of a health issue. I said back then the shuffle needed to be changed. It’s still the same as then. Even in the tourneys, same crap with the flushes, and st8s.

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What is this for ? All the link does is take me to an old account 4 years ago from Black Widow which was abandoned when a new updated name and account was formed.

I have started counting flush vs straight wins => so far 50:50!!! Should be 2:1 in favor of straights.


So far Straight =>19 versus Flush => 18 on SNG. Should be 2:1 !!! Will keep you posted.

Yeah, you’re about twice as likely to flop a straight than you are to flop a flush, at least from a strictly mathematical perspective. However, people are much more likely to play suited hands than connected hands, one gappers, 2 gappers, and other hands than might make a straight, and this changes things.

Once you get to the flop, flush draws have 9 outs while open-ended straight draws only have 8. This makes flush draws easier to fill than straight draws. In an environment where people like to limp and see flops, I’m not surprised by what you’re seeing.

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Yes I agree. Also many people will sit on a suited pair right from the start - even small cards and will bet small hoping to complete the flush. This biases the outcome towards flushes. Once people have 4 suited cards in the play, people will bet huge amounts => so folds of good cards is more likely. This makes 3 suited cards on the table a huge warning sign, especially with several players remaining. This affects the play strategy both ways => for wins and losses. Flushes are aptly named (= a curse) as they flush great hands down the proverbial!! I recon they should not beat Straights here on RP as any little heart pair will do!! Far harder to chase a missing straight card than any old suited card. Cheers

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Update: flush 32 versus straight 27
=> three suited cards on the table is a warning => greater than expected.
=> better to chase a flush completion than a straight (more outs; but still tough) but straights can be more sneaky
=> if you have a flush be careful that someone does not have a better one especially with 4 suited cards on the table.
=> bet big on a triple or two pairs when 2 suited cards are in the flop to make the flushers pay!