Win an SnG 6-Max tournament going all-in every hand
If this gets a lot of likes, it could actually become an achievement.
lol. I don’t want to encourage this, but if someone does manage to win this way, it’s an “achievement” comparable to rolling a 6 on a 6 sided die, six times in a row. Not exactly, I know, but it’s very, very improbably and would have nothing to do with skill. Of course, some of the achievements have nothing to do with skill. So what the hey.
Assuming you won every hand, and you shoved every hand, you could do this in 5 hands. Assuming you had isolated each hand to one opponent who called you, and that your average odds of winning each hand was 50%, the odds are only about 3.125%, which is a very rough approximation given the assumptions, but better odds than I would have thought.
I suspect that the real odds are much worse than this, though, and that in real-world poker, you wouldn’t get one player isolated each hand you played like this.
Far more likely, everyone folds most of the time, and you get called only when someone has a good enough hand to stop you with, and then you end up either doubling up or crippled.
If you did double up on your first showdown, you would stand a lot better chance than if you got crippled in your first showdown and had to come back from having only a handful of blinds worth of chips.
It’d be more fun to model this in a computer simulation than it would be to play in real life, that’s for sure.
The odds of doing this could be about 16% if everyone went all in at the start. It would be pretty unlikely for everyone to have a good enough hand to go all-in though.
If everyone went all in at the opening hand, and assuming the pot didn’t get chopped, then the odds of someone doing it would be 100%, each with a 1-in-6 chance of being the person who won (before taking their cards into account of course).
If the pot did get chopped, then you could do it in 2 hands, which would still be reasonably “easy” to see happen, in terms of probabilities. Although, the likelihood of 6 random people deciding spontaneously to play like this is very remote.
Yeah, I meant 16% for each player.
If each player decides to go all in on the green starting hands in this chart, then the chances of a player going all in is around 16/169, or 9.47%. The chances of all 6 players having one of the 16 starting hands to go all-in with is 0.00000072% [(16/169)^6]. The chances of you being the one who wins is 0.00000012% [(1/6)(0.00000072)].
But not every player would go all in on only these hands. If one of the other players is a bingo player, 50% of the time you will beat them, and you’ll beat the other 4 players 0.0000015% [(1/5)(16/169)^5]. The overall chance of you winning is half of that, about 0.0000076%.
If 2 of the 6 players decide to go all in on any hand, then the chances of you beating the two other bingo players on the first hand would be around 25%, and beating the other 3 players 0.00002% [(1/4)(16/169)^4].The chances of both happening and you winning on the first hand would be 0.000005% [(0.25)(1/4)(16/169)^4]
If you get lucky enough to be in a table with 3 other bingo players, then you’ve got a much better chance of winning. Beating the 3 other bingo players on the first hand will happen 12.5% of the time, and the last two players 0.00028% [(1/3)(16/169)^3]. The chances of you winning the tournament on the first hand/any attempt (since you either win the first hand or lose) is 0.00035% [(0.125)(1/3)(16/169)^3] That’s seven out of every two million attempts.
If somehow there are 4 other bingo players at your table, you’ll beat them 6.25% of the time, and the non-bingo player 0.0045% [(1/2)(16/169)^2]. You will win the tournament 0.0028% of the time [(0.625)(1/2)(16/169)^2].That’s 3 out of every 100,000 attempts.
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You’re not guaranteed to lose if you’re hand is bad. There’s always a small chance that you’ll win with weak hands because of luck, so the chances probably aren’t that small.
It would be much easier to just convince everyone to play bingo. Then the odds of winning would be like you said, 3.125%.
I have won a Royal MTT, going all in every hand from hand 1 till the last hand.
I have also had a 125++ hand winning streak going All-In from 1st hand before…
( caviet : in both cases some hands , noone called me )
Due to the current threads on Bingo, I was reluctant to share this …
Its also why, I don’t think the climate here would support such a achievement.
My personal opinion, sure why not have a bingo badge … I’ll wear one.
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