From what I know 1,000 people are active at any given time (high estimate) at 100 hands an hour played (again high estimate) this would make 1000x100=100,000 hands an hour on the site. However i see in the toplist more then 1 royal flush an hour on average forsure. How can this be since the chance of hitting a royal flush are 1 in 650k? Am i missing something.
Also top hands of the day is pretty much always 10 royal flushes. So that would mean 650kx10=6.5m hands should be played daily but its only 100,000x24=2.4m. How can this be the case all the time?
Don’t forget that not all the 1000 players are playing Hold’em. This makes it even less probable to have this many royal flushes every day. You have given it the highest estimate and it’s still improbable.
Not quite. The probability of a Royal Flush being on the board is ~1:650,000 but the odds of making a Royal Flush using your hole cards are much lower. Here are the relevant stats:
The board shows a royal flush 0.0002% 1:649,739
The board allows for a royal flush 1.6637% 1:59
One player makes a royal flush at a full ring table 0.0276% 1:3,628
Witnessing a royal flush over 100 hands at a full ring table 2.7184% 1:36
Witnessing a royal flush over 2500 hands at a full ring table 49.7922% 1:1
Witnessing two or more royal flushes over 100 hands at a full ring table 0.0369% 1:2,708
ADDED: Should note that these figures assume all hands play and go to showdown. Actual play makes the odds of seeing one much less likely but still more frequent than a lot of people would think.
Also, in math, probability is what the odds would be over thousands and thousands of hands on average. Variation is still possible when running trials, like when I flip a coin 100 times. Most of the time, it’s not coming out 50/50 exactly.
BobbyBullets
