# Multiple royal flushes an hour

Hey,

From what I know 1,000 people are active at any given time (high estimate) at 100 hands an hour played (again high estimate) this would make 1000x100=100,000 hands an hour on the site. However i see in the toplist more then 1 royal flush an hour on average forsure. How can this be since the chance of hitting a royal flush are 1 in 650k? Am i missing something.

Also top hands of the day is pretty much always 10 royal flushes. So that would mean 650kx10=6.5m hands should be played daily but its only 100,000x24=2.4m. How can this be the case all the time?

3 Likes
• i know that how odds work and it can just be random, but the chances of it happening every day if its fully random seems insignificant to me
• yes all hands are in holdem
3 Likes

Donâ€™t forget that not all the 1000 players are playing Holdâ€™em. This makes it even less probable to have this many royal flushes every day. You have given it the highest estimate and itâ€™s still improbable.

2 Likes

thatâ€™s just top 10. who knows how many more royals out there.

1 Like

Not quite. The probability of a Royal Flush being on the board is ~1:650,000 but the odds of making a Royal Flush using your hole cards are much lower. Here are the relevant stats:

The board shows a royal flush 0.0002% 1:649,739
The board allows for a royal flush 1.6637% 1:59
One player makes a royal flush at a full ring table 0.0276% 1:3,628
Witnessing a royal flush over 100 hands at a full ring table 2.7184% 1:36
Witnessing a royal flush over 2500 hands at a full ring table 49.7922% 1:1
Witnessing two or more royal flushes over 100 hands at a full ring table 0.0369% 1:2,708

ADDED: Should note that these figures assume all hands play and go to showdown. Actual play makes the odds of seeing one much less likely but still more frequent than a lot of people would think.

4 Likes

Aah i see thank you so much! so chance of making a royal is 1 in 40k

Yip, with only 5 cards its the 1:650K but using 5 of 7 cards its 1:30,939

2 Likes

Here is an old post of mine from â€śThe Fairness Debateâ€ť in reply to a post from

BobbyBullets

I am sure allowing an average of 4 players per table is very conservative so probably way more Royals are being dealt

2 Likes

i see 1warlock already provided the right answer.

but just in case, hereâ€™s some additional proof:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

1 Like

Also, in math, probability is what the odds would be over thousands and thousands of hands on average. Variation is still possible when running trials, like when I flip a coin 100 times. Most of the time, itâ€™s not coming out 50/50 exactly.

Curious, do they include the Royal flushes from the Royal game with the 25 card deck,?as that would really skew your numbers.

No. Royal at a Royal table are not included

Not even the Omaha ones are included.

This site has more flushes than the restrooms at Chipotle - its fixed I say.

1 Like

Quite a few in buckingham palace

More flushes than a shy hooker